Yet Another Value Podcast 对 $SEEN 的判断变化
这家公司是 Seeing Machines，股票代码是 Sen Trade，在伦敦上市。
It is Seeing Machines. The ticker is Sen Trade in London.
我们今天要讨论的公司是 Scene Machines，股票代码是 CE，在伦敦交易。
The company we want to talk about today is Scene Machines. The ticker there is CE. It trades in London.
我开始关注这家公司是偶然的，它突然出现在我的视野里，我甚至不认为它是我筛选器里的股票。它出现在我的办公桌上，我就开始研究它，我只是觉得那个（我稍后会解释的）增长曲线被市场完全错误定价了，而且这个判断很正确。
自从我买入这家公司以来，已经获得了 50% 的回报。我认为对于这个论点的第二阶段，我们有一个非常好的非对称回报。
I started looking at this company uh you know randomly just appearing I don't think it was even one of my screeners. It appear over my desk and just started doing some research into it and I just thought that the yes ramp up I will explain that later was being completely mispriced by this by the market that has worked well. It's been a 50% return since I entered into the company. I know I think we have a very good asymmetric return for the second leg of the thesis.
Sing Machines 是所谓的 DMS 技术领域双头垄断中的领导者。基本上，DMS 技术是一种软件，在你开车或进行其他活动时检查你的面部，以确保你注视着道路，以避免任何类型的事故。
Sing machines is the leader of a two-player duopoly in what's called DMS technology. Basically DMS technology is a software that checks your face while you are driving or while you are doing other type of activity to ensure that you are uh looking at the at the road in order to avoid any type of accidents.
尽管这项技术看似容易复制，但实际上非常难做。只有两家公司拥有最好的技术，它们都花了 20 年和数亿美元来开发这项技术。这些公司已经上市几十年，而且几十年来一直在亏损。我认为 Sing Machines 在过去二十年里仅在研发上就花费了 5 亿美元。所以开发这项技术非常昂贵。
despite this seeming uh easy to replicate technology is very hard to do. There's only two players which are the only ones that have the best technology, they've been bo both have taken 20 years and hundreds of millions of dollars to develop this. Like these companies have been listed for decades and they've been losing money for decades. They've spent I think Sing Machines has spent half a billion in research and development only over the last two decades. So it's it's very expensive to develop this technology.
但现在在欧洲，每辆汽车都必须配备这项技术、这个产品。这意味着这两家公司，尤其是 SIG machines，将开始产生自由现金流。但我的估计是，到 27 财年（他们的财年在六月结束，所以当我提到财年时，指的是 26 年 6 月到 27 年 6 月，这只是为了提供背景），我认为他们将产生大约 2000 万到 4000 万美元的自由现金流。
我们稍后会解释为什么会有这种差异。市值是 330。所以按中值计算，它的交易价格大约是自由现金流的 11 倍。
But what happens now in Europe, it's mandatory to have this technology, this product on every car. This means that these two companies and especially SIG machines will start to produce free cash flow. But you know it's we my estimations is that full year 27 like their full year ends in June. So when I refer to full year is June 26 to June 27. Uh just just for context, I think they will make around 20 to 40 million in free cash flow. We'll explain what why the the variation later. Market cap is 330. So on mid-range, it trades at around 11 times free cash flow.
我认为这可以以高双位数增长。为什么？首先，有一个非常高的运营支出基础，每年大约 5500 万美元，而且这基本上是固定的。额外的收入并不意味着额外的成本。这意味着，随着欧洲这项法规的强制实施，他们已经准备好了所有项目，他们应该产生自由现金流，但当下一波增长来临时，也就是日本和美国，那可能是在 2030 年左右或那前后，每一美元额外的收入都将直接转化为自由现金流，而不是像欧洲那样，每 70 美元的收入只有 20 美元的自由现金流，而日本和美国的 70 美元额外收入就是 70 美元额外的自由现金流，这是巨大的。
在这期间，我们还有来自车队领域的订阅期权。这基本上是将这项技术应用于车队，比如卡车车队，亚马逊也有更多，还有卡特彼勒之类的。这也增加了期权价值，因为它也是经常性的。
Something that I can believe can grow high double digits. Why? First of all, there's a very high OPEX base around 55 million USD per year. Uh that's largely fixed. Extra rent revenues don't mean extra cost. This means that with Europe with this regulation that's now mandated they have all the programs in place they should make free cash flow but when the next leg comes that's Japan and America that's probably around 2030 or or around that time every extra dollar of revenue will go straight to free cash flow instead of you know 70 extra on revenues from Europe only 20 free cash flow 70 extra from Japan and Americas is 70 extra in free cash flow that's massive and in between we subscription optionality from the fleet segment. That's basically this technology applied to to fleets like truck uh track fleets uh Amazon also they have way more uh Caterpillar stuff like that. It also adds optionality because it's also very recurring.
基本上，这是一个具有巨大运营杠杆的双头垄断论点，我认为它拥有非常好的竞争优势和难以复制的技术，而且你知道，有一些风险，也有一些原因可以解释为什么它便宜，但我们会在本期播客中深入探讨。
Basically, this is a thesis where there's huge operational leverage at duopoly with what I believe is a very good uh competitive advantage and a hard to replicate technology and you know there are some risk u and there's some reasons why this is cheap we could say but we will dig into that this podcast.
从高层面来看，这个论点是你有一个寡头垄断，基本上是双头垄断，交易价格大约是你预估的远期自由现金流的 10 倍，而且不仅如此，自由现金流还会因为运营杠杆而爆发，而且仅仅欧洲就有监管要求生效，日本我认为是在 2029 年生效，对吗？也许是 29 年或 2030 年。
high level thesis you've got this uh oligopoly basic duopoly trading at kind of let's call it 10 times your estimate of forward free cash flow and not only that but the free cash flow kind of explodes because it's all operating leverage and you've got just Europe alone's got the regulatory requirements kicking in and you know Japan I think it kicks in in Japan in 2029 is that right and maybe 29 or 2030
这听起来很疯狂。你在大约 1600 万辆汽车被强制要求安装之前买入。
it sounds crazy. You're buying something before kind of 16 million cars are mandated to get it.
这项技术除了在我看来是一个很好的论点之外，它还挽救了许多生命。比如，如果我们看保险公司，我认为保险角度长期来看非常有趣，这可以将你在路上的灾难风险降低约 90%，尤其是对卡车司机来说，这大大降低了汽车的保险成本。
this technology outside of you know being a great thesis in my opinion it saves lots of lives like one of the main cost for if we look by insurance companies I think the insurance angle is very interesting in the long term this reduces like 90% the risk of a catastrophe when you are on the road uh both for for especially for truck drivers that reduces a lot the insurance cost of of of of cars
在日本，他们正在推动这项法规到 29 年或 2030 年，我认为主要是因为人们看手机或在路上分心导致的事故大幅增加，而且这正在增加我们在路上看到的死亡人数，有很多协会在推动这一点。
in Japan they are pushing this regulation into the 29 or 2030 I think mainly because there's an huge increase in accidents for people looking at their phones or being distracted on the road uh and that's an increasing uh that's increasing the amount of deaths we are seeing on the road and there's lots of associations pushing for that
你有一家与另一家公司处于双头垄断地位的公司，而那家公司正在获胜。你知道，当这是一个利基市场时，是的，他们占主导地位，但当我把它扩展到 160 亿辆车，并且是监管驱动的时候，我突然担心，这不像它需要这些在过去 10 年里累计花费了 2 亿美元资本开支的公司。
我的意思是，那是很多资本开支，但我几乎可以肯定你 5 到 10 年前花的资本开支是浪费的。我能不能用 4000 万或 5000 万美元，用最先进的技术，在突然有 1600 万辆车需要它的时候，推出一个竞争产品？
或者，会不会有一家大型制造商看到这个，说，嘿，当这是一个高端车辆或定制车辆上的利基产品时，我可以外包，但现在它是强制性的，我就自己内部制造。或者，你提到亚马逊是客户。那不是汽车方面的，对吧？
那更多是车队方面的，但我看着它，我说你得到车内所有的数据，大量的机器学习、人工智能，我看着它说，为什么亚马逊要把这个外包给别人，而不是自己内部制造产品呢？
you've got this company that's been in a duopoly with another company that's kind of winning it. You know, when it this is a niche market, yeah, they dominate, but I worry when you expand it to 16 billion vehicles and it's regulatory driven all of a sudden, like it's not like it required these guys who spent cumulatively 200 million in capex over kind of the past 10 years. I mean, that's a lot of capex, but I I would almost guarantee the capex you spent 5 to 10 years ago is kind of wasted. Could I come up with a competing product for 40 or 50 million using state-of-the-art technology that comes in here when all of a sudden, hey, 16 million vehicles need it? Or do one of the big manufacturers look at this and say, hey, I, you know, I I could outsource this when it was a niche thing on high-end vehicles or custom vehicles, but now that it's required, I'm just going to build this in house. Or, you know, you mentioned Amazon as a customer. That's not on the the car car side, right? That's more on the fleet side, but I I look at that I say you get all the data happening inside a car, lots of machine learning, AI, lots of like I look at I say why would Amazon outsource this to someone instead of just like kind of building the product in house.
首先，Sing Machines 和 Smart Eye 已经进入了那 1600 万辆车，我们已经有了这些合同，而且这些车辆通常使用三到五年。所以在这第一阶段，被替换的风险很低，但正如你所说，一旦这个解决方案进入所有车辆，确实存在其他参与者试图夺取市场份额的风险。
长期来看，我预计会出现第三或第四个参与者，因为这在 OEM 领域通常会发生。
First of all, uh, Sing Machines and Smart Eye are already in those 16 million vehicles like we are we are already posts and those contracts with this, you know, you know, these vehicles last three to five years usually. So on this first leg there's a low risk of replacement but there's you know as you said there's a real risk of once this once this solution goes into all vehicles uh some other player trying to take share uh over the long term I am expecting to a third or fourth player to appeal because this usually happens in the in the OEM sector
但有一些原因说明这很难，首先，已经有很多参与者试图解决这个问题，例如，如果你看 Sing machines 的客户名单，它有一个客户是 electric，为什么？因为他们无法开发自己的解决方案，他们得到了很好的结果，这种事情往往会发生。
but some reasons why this is hard first of all there are many players that have already tried to get this solution right for example if you look at the cap table of uh Sing machines meets electric uh it's a client of uh Sing machines why uh because they couldn't develop their own solution they got great results and this is something that tends to happen
他们在实验室测试中可以说得到了很好的结果，但当他们把解决方案带到自然环境中时，效果非常糟糕，因为他们都是用所谓的合成数据训练的，基本上是你生成数据并训练它，但这在现实场景中效果不好。
they got great results in we could say in lab test but when they took the solution to a naturalistic environment it worked really really badly because you know they train all of these with uh synthetic data that it's called basically you generate data and train it on it but that doesn't work well in a real life scenario
Sing machines 最初是为采矿和跟踪行业开发这个解决方案的，后来才对整个汽车行业变得重要。所以他们有数十亿小时的卡车司机和采矿员工使用这项技术的录像。所以这非常重要。
你有大量的自然数据录像，这就是他们开发出解决方案的原因。如果你与 Smart Eye 相比，Sing machines 的准确性要高得多。在我看来，这是关键。
uh Sing machines initially developed this solution for the mining and tracking sector it it only later became relevant for the automotive as a whole we could say. So they they have billions of hours of footage of truck drivers and meaning mining employees using this technology. Uh so that's extremely important. You have tons of footage of naturalistic data and that's why they have developed solution. If you compare uh with smart eye sync machines has much better accuracy. That's key in my opinion
他们有一笔5500万美元的可转换债券，10月到期。你和我现在说的是2026年8月25日。对。所以，他们说，你可以去读他们的财报演示。我不记得他们的财报演示是什么时候发布的。8月11日。
他们说，‘嘿，我们正处于重新谈判的后期阶段。如果我们不喜欢，我相信与客户的可转换贷款，他们完全支持，所以他们会……’我听到所有这些，但我在市场上做了很长时间，对于一家公司来说，让一笔5400万美元的可转换贷款——我的意思是这是一家市值3亿美元的公司——让一笔5400万美元的可转换贷款在到期前两个月内仍未解决，这是疯狂的。
我要说，没有公司会这样做，除非他们绝对无法展期，对吧？而且他们在强装镇定。我认为你可以说，‘嘿，他们正处于一个巨大的拐点，这真的推动了他们的业绩，对吧？所以他们能做到。’但我看那张资产负债表，我说，‘哦，你知道，我听到爆炸性的增长，我听到所有这些。’
我看资产负债表，说：‘这是一家陷入困境的公司的资产负债表，或者有什么东西是我遗漏的。’
they have a $55 million convertible that is due in October. You and I are talking August 25th, 2026. Right. So, they said I you can go read their earnings deck. I can't remember when their earnings deck was put out. August 11th. And they said, "Hey, we're in late stages to renegotiate this thing. And if we don't like I believe the convertible loans with the customer and they're fully supportive so they'll and I hear all that but I've done markets a long time and for a company to let a $54 million I mean this is a 300 million mark cap company for a company to let a $54 million convertible loan get within two months of expiration is lunacy I'm going to say you know there's no company that would do that unless they were absolutely they absolutely could not roll that right and they're putting on a brave And I think you could say, "Hey, there was this huge inflection that they're in the middle of that really juices these results for them, right? So they can do it." But I look at that balance sheet and I say, "Oh, you know, I I hear the explosive I hear the explosive nature. I hear all this." I look at the balance sheet and say, "This is the balance sheet of a company that's distressed or there there's kind of something I'm missing."
我认为很多投资者都在等待可转换债券再融资后再投资这家公司。首先，一点背景。他们在4月或5月左右开始了再融资期，因为这笔可转换债券的时机真的很糟糕。基本上，他们需要报告KPI，以向市场贷款人展示，你知道，这个ESL的事情真的在发生，因为即使是惊喜也没有反映出来。
I think a lot of investors are waiting for the convertible to get refinanced before uh investing into this. You know, first a little bit of context. They started the refinancing period uh they started around April or May because the the timing was really bad for this convertible. basically they needed to report KPIs in order to show market lenders that you know say you know this ESL thing it's really happening because even in the surprise was not reflected