Chip Stock Investor 对 $SNDK 的判断变化
尽管闪迪再次受到追捧，但股价已大幅回落。人们陷入恐慌。让我们来谈谈闪迪。这是来自fiscal.ai的股价图表。你可以看到，七月份时，闪迪股价超过每股2000美元，所有人都处于狂热阶段。截至本次录制，股价已回落至每股约1200美元。
Even though Sandisk has been quite cool again, the stock has crashed back down to Earth. Folks are in a panic. Let's talk about Sandisk. Here's a look at this chart from fiscal.ai on the stock price. You can see back in July everyone was in a euphoria stage with Sandisk stock over $2,000 a share. As of this recording, stock's back down to around $1,200 per share.
如你所知，在Chip Stock Investor，我们不太关注股价，但让我们看看一些财务图表，以帮助我们了解闪迪的情况。
And as you know, at Chip Stock Investor, we don't focus on the stock price too much, but let's take a look at some fiscal charts to help us figure out what's going on with SanDisk.
这实际上是闪迪2027财年的第一季度，该季度将于九月底结束。我认为同比增速显然仍然惊人。在闪迪财年结束时实现了超过370%的增长后，同比来看，再次预期中点增速将远超300%，接近400%。
This would actually be Q1 of Sandisk's fiscal year 2027, the quarter that will end at the end of September. And I think the growth on a year-over-year basis is obviously still incredible. After 370%-plus increase to finish off Sandisk's fiscal year. On a year-over-year basis, once again expecting at the midpoint, a well over 300%, closer to 400% year-over-year increase.
然而，我们将更深入地探讨这个问题，股价为何回落？除了波动性，尤其是七月份闪迪高杠杆押注的平仓，增长将从现在开始放缓，这是健康的。我们完全接受。
However, as we are going to dig into this a little bit more, what is the reason why the stock has come back to earth? Well, besides just volatility, especially with the unwinding of highly leveraged bets in Sandisk in the month of July, the growth is going to begin moderating from this point going forward, which is a healthy thing. We're totally fine with that.
当我们买入闪迪时，我们计划持有多年。如果情况迅速变化，我们会保持警惕，但基本面来看，我们尚未看到任何根本性恶化。所以我们乐于让这只股票继续发展。
When we bought Sandisk, we planned on hopefully holding it over a multi-year horizon. We were gonna keep it on a short leash if anything rapidly changed, but fundamentally, we have not seen anything that has fundamentally changed for the worse. So we're happy to let this one continue doing its thing.
除了营收指引，我们还有新财年截至九月份季度的调整后每股收益指引。你可以再次看到，这里甚至更明显，预期将出现一定程度的持平。再次强调，每股收益和每股自由现金流预计将大幅同比增长。
但按中点计算，闪迪预计调整后每股收益为45美元，而上一财季（截至六月的季度）报告的调整后每股收益为39.25美元。
In addition to the revenue guidance, we also have adjusted earnings per share guidance for the new fiscal year for the quarter that ends in September. And once again, you can see even maybe a little bit more prominently here, a bit of flatlining expected going forward. Again, massive year-over-year increase in both earnings per share and free cash flow per share is expected. But at the midpoint, Sandisk guided adjusted earnings per share expected to be $45 compared to $39.25 just reported in adjusted earnings per share in the final quarter of the fiscal year, the quarter ended in June.
这是惊人的增长吗？是的。但这与公司过去三四个季度报告的增长类型不同。从现在开始，公司将呈现更为温和的增长态势，这没问题。
Is this fantastic growth? Yes, it is. It's not the same type of growth that the company has been reporting the last three or four quarters. We're going to get a more moderate growth profile for the company at this point going forward, and that's okay.
闪迪明智地利用了这笔意外之财。他们没有债务，资产负债表上有大量现金，并且进行了大量股票回购。上个季度，股票回购金额达45亿美元。
Sandisk has used this windfall of cash in very wise fashion. They have no debt, plenty of cash on balance, and they're making a lot of stock repurchases. In this last quarter, $4.5 billion in stock repurchases.
你可以在资产负债表的图表上看到长期投资接近25亿美元。除了Flash Ventures，那是他们与日本制造合作伙伴铠侠的合资企业，还有其他事情在发生。
You see long-term investments on this chart in the balance sheet at nearly 2.5 billion. Besides the Flash Ventures, that's the joint venture they have with Kioxia in Japan, their manufacturing partner. There's something else going on there as well.
因此，除了更温和的营收增长和盈利能力提升，未来几年闪迪将转向良好的股东回报，比如通过股票回购，以及推进技术、发展供应链，并确保创造更持续的股东价值。因为我们不能再依赖SSD上真正疯狂的平均售价（ASP）了。
现在闪迪和其他内存公司已与超大规模数据中心公司和其他数据中心公司签署了长期协议，通常是五年期协议，那种情况已经结束。
So in addition to more moderate revenue growth, more moderate profitability increases, what this is going to turn into over the next few years is Sandisk pivoting to good shareholder returns, like via the stock buybacks, as well as advancement of their technology, development of their supply chain, and just making sure they crank out more consistent shareholder value creation. Because we can no longer rely on the really wild average, average selling price, ASPs, on their SSDs, uh, like we have. That is now over now that Sandisk and the other memory companies have signed long-term agreements, uh, usually five-year agreements, with the hyperscalers and other data center companies.
这是帮助你分析像闪迪这样的企业的绝佳资源。这是闪迪在计算机内存层级中的位置，在底部，NAND闪存、SSD和高带宽闪存，后者还不是真正的东西。它有点算是一种东西。它即将到来。
Great resource to help you analyze businesses like Sandisk. This is where Sandisk falls in this computer memory hierarchy down there at the bottom, NAND flash, SSDs, and high bandwidth flash, which isn't really a thing yet. It's kind of sort of a thing. It's coming.
事实上，几天前，即8月3日，闪迪和SK海力士发布了HBF首个技术规范，首个面向谷歌和Tenstorrent的OCP技术规范。这些公司现在可以在其产品中测试HBF，确保其正常工作，并可能为未来HBF制定路线图。
And in fact, there was a press release from a few days ago on August 3rd, Sandisk and SK hynix released the, HBF first technical specification, first OCP technical spec- specification for Google and Tenstorrent. These companies can now test HBF in their product, make sure it works, and perhaps lay a roadmap to HBF in the future.
HBF是闪迪的技术路线图。供应链呢？让我们看看之前展示的长期投资幻灯片。你可以看到，上个季度他们有25亿美元的长期投资，这是原因之一。今年三月，闪迪宣布将对南亚科技进行股权投资。
HBF is the technology roadmap for Sandisk. How about the supply chain? Let's take a look at that slide we showed you earlier on their long-term investments. You can see that they have 2.5 billion in long-term investments in this last quarter, and this is one of the reasons why. Back in March of this year, Sandisk announced that they were going to be doing an e- equity investment in Nanya Technology.
你可能会问，闪迪为什么要对南亚科技进行股权投资？闪迪正在确保其供应链，将更多供应链内部化，因为我刚才提到的其他三家公司，SK海力士、三星和美光，实际上是竞争对手。他们也生产NAND闪存。
因此，在每个SSD（固态硬盘）中，你实际上需要一小条DRAM。如果你能建立自己的独立供应链，而不是来自NAND闪存竞争对手，为什么要从竞争对手那里采购呢？为什么不这样做呢？好主意。
And what you may ask, would Sandisk want to do making an equity investment in Nanya Technology? Sandisk securing more of its supply chain, bringing more of its supply chain in-house because those other three companies I just mentioned, SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron, are actually competitors. They also make NAND flash. And so within every SSD, solid state drive, you actually need a little stick of DRAM. And so why source that from one of your one of your competitors if you can create your own independent supply chain that's not from a NAND flash competitor? Why not? Why not just do that? Great idea.
这就是闪迪投资南亚科技的要旨。他们可以从他们那里获得这些小DRAM芯片，而不是从三大巨头之一。好的，我们已经涵盖了闪迪的技术路线图和供应链路线图。这两件事听起来都很棒。财务状况吻合。财务状况吻合。一切看起来都很好。
That was the gist of the investment in Nanya Technology by Sandisk. They can get these little, these little DRAM chips from them instead of one of the big three. Okay, so we covered the technological roadmap for Sandisk, the supply chain roadmap. Both of those things sound great. The financials line up. The financials line up. Everything looks great.
但更具体地说，闪迪，不仅仅是所有内存股，情况如何？在如此出色的2026财年和看似非常好的2027财年开局之后，投资者再次抛售，是不是很愚蠢？
But what about Sandisk more specifically, not just all the memory stocks? What's going on here? Surely after such a fantastic fiscal year 2026 and what appears will be a really, really great start to fiscal year 2027, investors are just being dumb selling this off again, right?
我不知道，尼克，也许他们并不那么愚蠢。也许有些事情我们需要考虑。存在周期。尽管周期较长，内存公司，包括闪迪，仍然是周期性的，而且，是的，所有企业都是如此，关键在于弄清楚周期的长度。
I don't know, Nick, maybe they're not being so dumb. Maybe there's some things we need to consider. There's a cycle. Even though it's a longer cycle, memory companies, including Sandisk, are still cyclical, and Yeah, as all businesses are, it's about figuring out the length of the cycle.
HBF 也仍属于未来。它目前还不是 Sandisk 故事的一部分，而且出现了新的竞争。中国的长江存储正在扩张。SK 海力士正计划为其子公司 Solidigm（原英特尔的一部分）进行 IPO，当然，股票有涨有跌。
正常的波动同样适用于 Sandisk。是的。我们从一开始就在讨论这个。
HBF is also still in the future. It's not part of the story just yet for Sandisk, and there is new competition. Yangtze Memory in China is expanding. SK Hynix is planning for an IPO for its Solidigm subsidiary, which was part of Intel, and of course, stocks go up, stocks go down. Normal volatility applies even for Sandisk. Yeah. We've been talking about this one since the beginning.