Benzinga 对 $SPY 的判断变化
好的，让我们看看 SPY 图表。看看我们现在在哪里，本周可能走向何方。记住，我们刚刚讨论了本周即将发布的几份重要财报，一些来自 AI 领域，一些来自网络安全领域。我认为主要是 Palo Alto，还有 Broadcom。
上周几乎整个星期我们都在 20 日均线附近徘徊，今天我们又接近该均线。目前，在周一开盘前，我们技术上位于其下方。所以，对我来说，一个关键水平肯定是 76971，距离我们当前的位置只有 20 美分。
你也可以称之为 770，那也合理。我想那也会是一个关键水平。但我们在日线图上形成的形态对多头来说不太理想。周五我们曾上涨至前历史高点 77685 附近，但没有完全测试，然后回落并守住了 20 日均线。
这导致我们今天位于 20 日均线下方。我们能否收于其上方或下方？我们拭目以待。这将决定方向。问题是，如果我们收于其下方，然后看起来我们会走低。实际上，我们在 8 月 14 日或 8 月 13 日（即历史高点所在位置）形成了日线级别的较低高点。
所以，我们将看看这种模式是否继续，或者我们能否在 20 日均线附近逆转，看看能否重新夺回该均线。
All right, let's take a look at the spy chart. Let's see where we are and where we might be going here this week. Remember, we just talked to you about several key earnings reports coming this week. Some from the AI uh sector, some from the cyber security sector. I think that's really headlined by Palo Alto as discussed and then also Broadcom. uh you could throw in there. Now, last week for pretty much the entire week, we spent it riding the 20-day and we find oursel near that again here today. We are technically beneath it right now ahead of uh Monday's open. So, for me, a key level here is definitely going to be 76971. It's only 20 cents away from where we're currently at. You want to call it 770, that would make sense, too. I would imagine that would also uh be a key level here. But um the formation that we are making on the daily chart here less than ideal for the bulls. We did trade up on Friday towards the previous all-time high level of 77685. We did not quite test it, but then we pulled back in and held the 20. That sets up today where we're beneath the 20. Can we close above or beneath that? We'll see. That should determine the direction. Now, the thing is is if we do close beneath it, and then we looks like we're going to move lower. We actually have a lower high on the daily from uh August 14th or August 13th, which is where the all-time high is set. So, we'll see if that pattern continues here or if maybe we can kind of reverse that uh right off of the right off of the 20. See if we can recapture that.
Lion，关于你对 SPY 的看法，或者你问我看法，我们目前正在与 VWAP 争夺，但我们还没有显示出对上涨的信心。现在还为时过早，但还没有。我们目前守住了 VWAP。
Lion, as far as your call on the spy here or you're asking me for the call, we are battling with the VWAP right now, but we do not we are not show I would call this not showing confidence in the move up just yet. It's early, but not yet. We're holding the VWAP so far.
道指下跌。顺便说一句，纳斯达克试图走高。SPY 不知道自己要做什么。实际上，SPY 正在跌向盘前低点。好的。所以，走势没有朝着我认为人们想要的方向发展。这确实形成了一个看跌形态。
看起来甚至没有机会形成右肩，但这正在跌向 65 EMA。
Dow is down. By the way, NASDAQ's trying to go higher. SPY can't figure out what it's going to do. Actually, SPY moving to the pre-market lows as we speak. All right. So, move not moving in the direction I think people want. This did have a bearish looking pattern forming. Didn't look like it even made had a chance to form the right shoulder, but uh this is coming down to the 65 EMA.
>> 目前在那里获得一些支撑，但我不确定能否守住。嗯，我们看看它最终会怎样。
>> And getting some support there for now, but I don't know that it holds. Um we'll see what it ends up doing.
好的。Lion 提到 SPY 遭到重大拒绝。是的，那确实起到了拒绝的作用。我们实际上试图突破 VWAP，然后回落。我同意，这在我看来像是拒绝。我们现在位于盘前低点下方。这应该是向下突破结构。看看蜡烛图是否以该形态收盘。
All right. Lion here mentioning big rejection for the spy. Yeah, so that actually did serve as a rejection. We actually tried to peak above the VWAP here and then we rolled back over line. And I would agree this to me looks like a rejection. We're now beneath the pre-market lows. This should be a um break of structure to the downside here. See if it actually closes the candle with that.
所以，我对标普的整体看法是，看起来不太好。但我最初的观点是，我认为今天可能会收涨，因为我们正在为 8 月底做修饰。但第一次波动让我们走低了，Ed，所以我不确定那能否持续。这里要提的一点是，我们总是用 SPY 来参考标普 500。
需要明确的是，我们谈到了跌破当日低点。实际上看起来它可能试图重新夺回，但我们会看看。我最初的判断是可能收涨。但市场开盘 10 分钟后，我不确定这个判断有多可靠。
So, my outlook on the S&P just in general, it's not looking good. But my outlook initially, and I'm going to stick with it until I'm proven wrong, my outlook was I thought we might close green here today as we kind of dress up the end of August. Uh, first move pulled us lower here though, uh, Ed, so I don't know if that's going to hold. Um, one of the things to mention here really quick, we always take a look at SPY here when referencing the S&P 500. Just to be clear, we talked about this breaching the low of the day. It actually looks like it's trying maybe to recapture it, but um we'll see. My initial call is I thought maybe we closed green. I don't know how good I feel about that here 10 minutes into the market session.
好的。是的，你在走势上是对的。你可以看到。顺便说一句，SPY 的朋友们，我们可能在这里向下突破结构。SPY 在这波下跌中试图跌破盘中低点蜡烛。就在 765 又 3/4 那里。我们基本上就在那里。期货看起来不太好。
Okay. Yep. You're right there on move. You can see it there. By the way, SPY folks, we might have a break of structure here to the downside. Uh SPY looking to take out the intraday low candle on this move down. Got it right there at 765 and 3/4. We are basically right there. Futures not looking great there.
我们正在讨论更广泛的市场。SPY 几乎双重测试了低点。我们看看能否回到 VWAP 上方。这个东西，如果我看五分钟图，它跌入了上周三以来的盘整区域。>> 这个东西，你指的是 Q's 还是 SPY？
>> 抱歉，我指的是 SPY。我不知道你已经从 SPY 转到别的了。所以，是的，我指的是 SPY。它跌下来，在 76550 区域附近找到了一些支撑。但它基本上在周三、周二、周一、上周五以来的盘整中横盘。
看看它跌入的这个区域。你可以画一条直线穿过它。而且，自从两个星期五以来，价格走势基本上在 765 区域上方来回波动。
we're talking a little bit about the broader market here. Spy almost double tested the low there. We'll see if this can get back above the VWAP. This thing uh if I'm looking at a five-minute chart, this came down into a consolidation area back from last Wednesday. >> This thing, are you referring to the Q's or the spy? >> I'm sorry, the spy. I didn't I didn't know you moved on to from the spy. So, yeah, the spy is what I'm referring to. uh came down, found some support around the 60 uh 76550 area. Uh but it's like really sideways into the consolidation from you know from Wednesday and and and backwards. So Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, last Friday. Just look at this area this came down into. And you could draw a straight line across it. And this has been, you know, this price action since two Fridays ago has been basically back and forth above that uh 765 area.
SPY 正在试图反弹。我们看看它是否有力量突破其 VWAP。76667 将是你的 VWAP。我们拭目以待。
SPY is trying to bounce. We'll see if it's got the strength to get above its VWAP. 76667 is going to be your VWAP there. We shall see.
哇，突然之间很多事情开始发生了。SPY 开始重新上涨。看起来它正在挑战其 VWAP，就在我们说话的时候。SPY 到目前为止在 VWAP 处被拒绝，但尚未跌破。我仍会关注这场争夺。
boy, a lot of stuff all of a sudden starting to happen here. SPY is starting to trade back up. Looks like it's challenging its VWAP as we speak, folks. spy rejected at that VWAP so far, but it's not breaking down yet. I would still watch this battle
Amarie，我感谢这一点。拒绝上行。你瞧，看起来我们再次在 VWAP 处被拒绝。Marie 接着说，我认为我们处于区间震荡，所以我们应该拒绝上方密集区的上沿。好的。到目前为止，这正是我们所做的。
Amarie, I appreciate this. Reject the upside. And lo and behold, it looks like again we are rejected at VWAP here. And Marie goes on to say, I believe we are rangebound, so we should reject the upper lines of the congestion. Okay. Well, so far that's exactly what we've done.
Lion 说：“SPY 看起来确实看跌。”Lion，当你说对时，你就是对的。你知道吗？我原以为我们或许能够反弹并以绿色收盘，但到目前为止市场并没有向我们展示这一点。我想补充一点，关于你认为它看起来看跌的观点，我想补充说，每次我们交易到 VWAP 并被拒绝——在过去 10 分钟内我们已经这样做了两次——每次我们这样做，我们都确认它看起来仍然看跌。
这就是为什么当 SPY 在 VWAP 下方交易时，VWAP 收复始终是关注点之一。但 Lion，我同意你的看法。除非这里发生变化，否则它看起来是看跌的。
Lion saying, "The spy definitely looks bearish." Lion, when you're right, you're right. And you know what? I thought maybe we might be able to bounce and close green, but thus far the market is not showing us that. And I would add to the fact that your your call here about it looking bearish. I would add and say every time that we trade up to VWAP and get rejected, which we've done twice in the last 10 minutes now, every time we do this, we affirm that it still looks bearish. And this is one of the reasons why a VWAP recapture is something that's always on deck here when SPY is trading beneath it. But Lion, I agree with you. Until something changes here, it looks bearish.
看起来你的下一个下行支撑位，如果我们没有在 765 找到它，看起来你在那下方一美元处有一个更好的区域，即 764。但你知道，我们现在交易在 20 日 SMA 下方。如果我们继续收于其下方，那么我对最终到达 755 到 760 区域会更加有信心。
Looks like your next support to the downside. um if we don't uh find it at uh 765. Looks like you have a much better area down a dollar away from that at 764. But you know, we me we we are trading underneath the 20-day SMA now. And if we continue to close underneath it, I'm then I'm feeling a lot more confident about finally getting down to that 755 760 area.
顺便说一句，SPY 正在回落至低点。
SPY, by the way, rolling back over to the lows here.
好的。SPY 正在测试区间的下端。我们将看看我们是否真的突破该区间并走低。
Okay. Uh, SPY is testing the lower end of the range there. We'll see if we actually break that and move lower.
SPY，我们刚刚创下当日新低了吗？
and SPY, did we just set new lows for the day?
话虽如此，SPY 现在正在测试盘中低点，就在我们说话的时候。76550 就在这里，它刚刚跌破该水平。
Uh, with that being said, SPY is literally testing the intraday low here as we speak. 76550 right here and it just dipped beneath it.
Nquille，你说：“你的机器人是不是买了 SPY 的看跌期权？”它还没有进行任何交易。它会寻找 SPY 和 QQQ 的看跌期权和看涨期权，但今天它还没有进行任何操作。它没有这样做的设置。
Nquille, you were saying, "Didn't your bot took uh puts on spy?" It has not taken any trade. It will look for puts and calls on SPY and QQQ, but it hasn't taken anything here today. It doesn't have the setup to do that.
Lion 说，Ryan，SPY 的每一次尝试都被拒绝了。这完全正确。这正是我们从一开始就在观察的。每一次试图突破 VWAP 的尝试都被拒绝了。我们已经讨论过这一点。我们将看看它是否会改变。
Um, Lion saying, Ryan, every attempt by the spy has been rejected. That is exactly right. That has been what we've been watching from the very beginning here. Every attempt to move through the VWAP has been rejected. We've talked about it. We'll see if it changes.