Drawbridge Finance 对 $SPY 的判断变化
这个频道在这只股票上的每一条判断，按时间倒序，每一步都读完那条视频里关于这只股票的全部内容。相邻两条方向不同的地方标出方向翻转。
今年的收益令人难以置信，几乎翻倍于标普500的回报，这非常棒。
The gains have been incredible this year. Uh almost doubling the return of the S&P 500 which has been fantastic.
我们来看标普500。今天市场微涨18%。所以，这是标普500。你可以看到它处于布林带区间的顶部。我们有一个控制点，最近在6900水平下方。
We're going to look at the S&P 500. The market is slightly green today at 18%. So, this is the S&P 500. You can see it's in the top portion of these these Bowlinger band ranges. We've got a point of control uh fairly recently uh below the 6,900 level.
在更近的时间框架上，标普的控制点在7500水平附近，然后也在7400水平附近。
point of control uh on the more recent time frame on S&P looking at that 7500 level and then also around that 7,400 level.
所以，Fast and Easy想看SPY。好的。让我们看看，我们还有几分钟。所以，我们要做的是，我们来看SpaceX，我们要拉出链。所以，让我们假设这是一个全新的头寸。没关系。
So, and Fast and Easy wants to look at SPY. Okay. So, let's look at um we've got a few minutes left here. So, we're going to do we're going to look at SpaceX and we're we're going to pull up the chain. So, let's let's assume that it's a brand new position. Doesn't matter.
Spy，Fast and Easy在问SPY。所以，让我们看看SPY。我现在有一些下行对角头寸。寻找下跌走势。不是预期下跌，只是为周末寻找对冲。我们只是不知道会发生什么。
Spy, Fast and Easy is asking about SPY. So, let's just take a look at SPY. I've got some downward diagonal positions on right now. Looking for a down move. Not not expecting a down move, just looking for the hedge uh for the end of the week. We just don't know what's going to happen.
但如果我们寻找看跌头寸，相对容易找到我们可以玩非常短期的头寸。当VIX如此之低时，我们可以在SPY上买入便宜的日历价差。所以这花费138美元，但在模拟器中，我们最终得到一个在763和738之间赚钱的交易。
这绝不是大幅回调。如果有大幅回调，IV飙升，这个帐篷会变大。无论如何，我们可能会看到股票必须大幅下跌，比如60或抱歉30美元，从765跌到731。那会增加IV。那将是IV扩张。
如果股票上涨，IV收缩，这可能花费金钱，但仅限于花费的金额。所以这是一个139美元的赌注。这些可能很棒。这笔交易可以赚427美元。如果IV稍微飙升，甚至可以赚更多。看看这个。可以赚600美元。
所以那可能是4倍的钱。IV略微上升时盈利概率为60%。当前盈利概率为40%。我喜欢在我的账户中买入一些这样的。
But if we're looking for a bearish position, it it's relatively easy to to look at positions where we can play a very short duration. We can we can buy uh kind of cheap calendars on on spy when the VIX is so low. So this costs 138 bucks, but in the simulator, we end up with a trade that it makes money between 763 and 738. This is not a substantial pullback by any stretch. If there is a big pullback in the IV spikes, this tent gets bigger. Anyways, so we may see that this the stock would have to drop uh you know considerably for 60 or sorry $30 from 765 down to 731. That would increase the IV. It would be IV expansion. Um if the stock goes up, there's IV um contraction and this could cost money, but it's limited to the amount spent. So it's a $139 bet. These can be great. This this trade can make $427. It can make even more if the IV spikes even a little bit. Look at this. Could make 600 bucks. So that could be 4x the money. Probability of profit with a slight increase in IV is 60%. Current probability of profit is 40%. I like to buy some of these in my account.
现在如果我想玩另一边，我可以。我也可以去看涨期权那边。这会给我一点上涨潜力。所以如果我们看涨期权，我们在765。所以也许我认为股票会涨到785。我只是在找便宜的东西。所以780我可以以1美元买入。
我能从卖出那些短期期权中得到任何钱吗？所以780我会在链上找到这个，我要创建一个双对角价差。我只得到14美分，但14美分在谈论低期限低交易时也不是什么。如果我们不知道市场方向，这些可能是非常好的交易。
它们基本上持有成本不高。theta衰减非常非常小。有一点。这个谷值略低。最大利润是337美元。如果市场下跌，你会很高兴有这些，因为IV会扩张，这将成为一个盈利的交易。所以，这些很便宜。有时我只是在这样的头寸上加仓。
Now if I want to uh play the other side, I can. I can also go to the call side. This will give me a little bit of upside potential. So if we look at the the calls, we're at 765. So maybe I think that stock's going to run up 785. I'm just looking for something cheap. So 780s I can buy for a dollar. Can I get any money for selling those uh on the on the short duration? So the 780 I would go to this on the chain and I'm going to create a double diagonal. I'm only getting 14 cents, but still 14 cents is is not nothing when you're talking about a low a low term a low trade. This if we don't know market direction, these can be extremely good trades. They basically don't cost a lot to hold. There's the theta decay is very very minimal. There is a little bit. This valley is slightly low. Uh max profit is is 337 bucks. If the market sells down, you'll be happy to have these on because the IV will expand and this will become a profitable trade. So, these are they're cheap to put on. And sometimes I just load up on a on a position like this.
现在，在这种情况下，我这周用两种不同的方式做了，我对那笔交易做的是，我记不清是20还是30份SPY合约，然后我买了10份Q's合约，利润10以上。所以，我交易两个相似的相关资产。
所以，我有SPY，下面有一个大的利润10，那很大。你知道，它可以赚大约5万或什么的，这很好。如果有一个好的下行移动，而且不是，它不需要是巨大的下行移动。我们说的是2%或3%的抛售，那么这个巨大的盈利帐篷就在那里，因为我知道如果抛售比那更大，那么IV扩张更大，那些对角价差无论如何都有帮助。
所以，我有对冲。我有黑天鹅对冲。所以大多数时候我真的祈祷大幅下跌。那将是理想的。我们每几年可以遇到一次，你可以得到这样的，大幅跳跃你的账户。我刚给你看的那笔交易就是这样做的方法。
它很便宜。所以150美元给我们一个大的利润10。
Now, in this case, uh I I did it with two different um like this week, what I did with that trade was I I put on I can't remember 20 or 30 contracts on SPY and then I bought 10 contracts on Q's for the profit 10 above. So, I play two correlated assets that are similar. So, I've got like SPY with a big profit 10 below that's huge. You know, it could make like 50 grand or something, which is nice. If there's a nice move to the downside and it's not, it doesn't need to be a massive move to the downside. We're talking about a 2 or 3% sell-off, then this huge profit tent is there because I know if the sell-off is bigger than that, then the IV expansion is greater and those diagonals help anyways. So, and I have hedges in place. I have black swan hedges in place anyways. So most of the time I'm really praying for a huge down move. That would be ideal. We can hit one of those every couple of years and you can get like this substantially leapfrogs your account. That trade that I just showed you is the way to do that. It's cheap to do. So 150 bucks gives us a big profit 10.