Steve Miller 对 $SPY 的判断变化

Okay, so this is the Aslim Stock Market Outlook S&P 500 SPX for Friday, August 28th, 2026. Let's go ahead and hop into the charts. This is our grid that we actually share with level four members, uh where you can see our SPX uh and NDX and RUT analysis. Let's first uh show you the S&P, which is what we're going to be honing in on in this video.

Uh there's a low here that was due 8/10 to right around 9/14. It is still possible that that formed early. We'll have to see the RS indicator on the intermediate term is up. Okay, so that is where the overall bias is really leaning towards is still to the upside.

Jump over to the short term. And in the short term, you can see that the Aslim OBI has been positive here holding up throughout this minor pullback. We are moving through some of these lower areas, so what we're going to go ahead and do is bring over the 78.6 so you can see it at 77.79. You have the old highs at 78.16. Only a loss of this low now at 76.38 would be a bearish breakdown. Absent of that, the action is okay, and uh you can, you know, overall still be looking for a try towards highs.

Again, always be thinking about both sides of the market. If you draw in your fibs from cycle low, cycle high to that low right there, you have 78.30 to 78.89. Those are the closest levels on the upside. Our next trough is due 9/15 to right around 9/22.

You know, uh it is also key to surface that we are getting into a seasonality period, especially ahead of midterms, which is a little bit weaker. Now, he take that with a grain of salt, but I do want to surface it because if you do see weakness in a time period where seasonality there is a little bit of weakness that is typical, right? That is something that we can be aware of. But, you know, just due to there being negative seasonality, that's not going to keep me out of long side trades, you know?

So, we always have to let the charts talk to us and let the indicators really be our guide. And obviously also, as always, follow our key swing highs and swing lows until those are actually violated, you know, you can't really have any any obvious structure behind a trade to the short side, right? So, that's really where I am right now is really still honing in on what things are acting better.

And, you know, until we see an an obvious shift under the hood across sectors that are really aligning and then we see a breakdown in some of the indexes cycle structures the action is is undeniably still positive, okay? So, that is where we are right now for the SPX on the daily bar.

Let's go ahead and hop over to the 2-hour. Now, what Slim has done here is he's actually turned this into an area chart where it is green when you see the EMAs on the upside in parallel, it is purple when it is mixed, and it is red when they get aligned on the downside. And right now, obviously, we are back in parallel to the upside.

And on the shortest time frame, which is the 2-hour, please note the Aslam MCI does use the 2-hour as part of its calculation, but it actually looks at much longer time frames. Part of how thinkorswim uh does their thinkscript code is that you have to overlay the indicator on the shortest time frame uh of its inputs. So, that's only reason it's on the 2-hour.

The action has been decent. This got close to the swing zone and has since turned up a little bit ahead of it. RS is positive. Slim ribbon is positive. So, you've got those old highs on radar at 7816. Again, watch that low very, very closely, 7638 on the downside to give you some indications of change.