The Intrinsic Value Podcast 对 $TDG 的判断变化
是的，所以 Trans 我已经提到过，非常相似。但 TransDigm 过去所做的，Munger 评论过的是，他们大幅提高了价格。理由是，这些零件中的一些，我看到一个数字，在一架 1 亿美元的飞机上可能花费 1000 美元，谁在乎我们把它提高到 2000 美元？这就是他们一直以来的推理。
Yeah, so Trans I already mentioned, I mean, it it's very similar. Um but what Transdime has done in the past, and Munger commented on it was that uh they've increased their prices quite substantially. And you know, the reasoning being that some of these parts, you know, I think I saw a number, you know, it might cost $1,000 on a, you know, $100 million airplane. Who cares if we raise it to $2,000? That's kind of what what what their their reasoning has been over time.
他们实际上被告上了法庭，我记得，是谁来着？我不认为是五角大楼，可能是五角大楼，我记不清了，但反正是某个大型美国政府机构。他们基本上说：“你们在敲诈我们。”然后芒格过来说，这不是他愿意参与的那种商业模式。他希望参与的是每个人都是赢家的商业模式。
And so they actually taken to court, I believe, uh, who was it? I don't think it was was it the Pentagon? It might have been the Pentagon. I can't remember, but it was some some some large US government agency. And they basically said like, "You guys are gouging us." And then Munger came in and said, you know, that's it's just it's not a business model that he would want to be a part of. He wants to be part of business models where everyone's a winner.
你可以争辩说这是好的商业实践还是坏的商业实践。我不是来就此进行道德争论的。但只是说，这大概就是他们的做法。对于Transdime，情况非常相似，就像我刚才说的Hiko。我们可能在某种军用飞机上有一个零件，它将在未来40年内服役。
所以如果你需要在未来40年内维护那架飞机，他们会从Transdime购买零件。这很酷，因为没有多少企业能让你一看就知道：“是的，他们几乎可以保证在未来40年或未来几十年内产生收入。”
And, you know, you can make that argument that it's it's good good business practice or bad business practice. I'm not here to to to to get into a moral argument on that. Um, but just saying, you know, that's that's kind of what they do. Um, and uh, so with Transdime, it's it's very similar like I just said with Hiko. we might have um you know a part on some sort of military aircraft that's going to be in commission for the next 40 years. And so if you need to maint maintain that aircraft over the next 40 years, they're going to be buying a part from Transdime. And so, you know, that's pretty cool because there's not that many businesses where you can just look into it and be like, "Yeah, they're going to be generating revenue for the next 40 years or next few decades pretty much guaranteed."
除此之外，如果他们想提高价格，没有太多选择。你基本上只能接受那些价格上涨，除非监管机构介入并大做文章。
Um and then on top of that, if they want to raise their prices, there's not a lot of options. There's nothing you can really do. you basically just kind of have to have to eat those those price increases again unless regulators come in and make a big stink about it.
所以，如果我要比较这两者，我真的很喜欢Transdime，因为Nick Howley参与其中，他还参与了Perimeter Solutions，这是我实际拥有并在那里也报道过的另一家企业。所以我喜欢他做的很多事情。
So, if I were comparing the two, um, and again, I really like Transdime because Nick Howley is involved and he's this the he's involved with uh Perimeter Solutions, another business that I I I actually own and that I've also covered as well on there. So, I like a lot of what he's done.
但我要说的是，鉴于这些企业在很多方面非常相似，关于定价权与低成本供应商的整个论点，我认为我必须把优势给低成本供应商。我认为仅仅是因为他们与客户的关系会非常好。他们的客户不会来找他们说，去年我们为这个付了1000美元，为什么现在同样的零件要付1500美元？
如果你在一个竞争激烈的行业，有其他选择，你就不能这样做，对吧？但我认为这就是Transdime的力量。
Um, but I will say given that these businesses in in a lot of ways are are very similar the whole point about the pricing power versus you know kind of being a lowcost provider. I kind of give I kind of have to give the edge in my opinion to the to the lowcost provider. I think just because um they're going to have really good relationships with their customers. You know their customers aren't going to be coming up to them being like last year we paid you know we last year we paid a,000 bucks for this. Why are we paying 1,500 bucks for this? the exact same part. And you know, if if you were in a super competitive industry where there were other options out there, well, you couldn't do it, right? But that's I think that's kind of the power the power of of Transdime.
但再次，我认为我必须稍微把优势给Haiko。但我仍然会把Trans Dime放在，我想我会给Transime一个B。
But again, I just I think I would have to give the edge here slightly to Haiko. But I would still put Trans Dime in in I think I would give Transime a B.
我可能对Trans Dime更悲观一些。因为我不喜欢这种几乎是敲诈性的商业模式，对吧，就像Charlie Munger不赞成的那样。
I'm probably a little more bearish on uh on Trans Dime. Um just because yeah I don't love the I don't love the um it's almost like an extortionary business model right like Charlie Mer um didn't didn't approve of it.
当我研究FICO时，我看到了很多这样的情况。我听说很长时间它是一个多么不可思议的优质复合增长型企业。对我来说，优质复合增长型企业是能够随着时间的推移持续再投资于自身的企业。就像我们看到的Constellation Software，他们将四倍于现金流的资金用于收购，并且仍然产生高资本回报。这对我来说几乎是优质企业的缩影。
Uh and you know I I saw this a lot when I studied FICO. Um I I heard about for such a long time what an incredible quality compounder it was. And to me a quality compounder is a business that's able to um you know reinvest uh consistently in itself over time. like we saw with Constellation Software, uh, you know, four times as much, uh, cash flow that they're they're allocating to acquisitions, uh, and they're still generating high returns in capital. That's to me almost the epitome of of quality.
我对Transime不太熟悉。我不认为它完全像FICO的情况。但我不喜欢FICO的地方，类似于Transime，就像我说的，这种敲诈性的定价策略。我认为这最终会反噬你。
Uh, and, you know, I'm not I'm not as wellversed in in Transime. I don't I don't think it's quite like the FICO situation. Um, but you know what I don't like about FICO, similar to Transime, is like I said, um, really this like kind of extortionary pricing tactics. And I think that I think that eventually comes back to bite you.