Schwab Network 对 $TSLA 的判断变化
今天早上看了一些电动汽车公司，包括比亚迪、特斯拉、小鹏和蔚来。
looking at some of these EV companies this morning. BYD, Tesla, Xpong, and NEO.
它最初在市场上被定位为特斯拉的中国对手，因为当时它的车型稍微好一些。
It was sort of initially sold, I guess, the marketplace is sort of the Chinese counterpart to Tesla because it was a little bit nicer vehicle at the time.
说到一家可能不像十年前人们想象的那样依赖中国市场的公司，特斯拉在美国是规模赢家，同时也是机器人和自动化领域的领导者，是少数几家将这些结合起来的公司之一。特斯拉在这个讨论中处于什么位置？
Well, then speaking of, you know, maybe a company that isn't as exposed to China as maybe people thought they might be, you know, 10 years ago, Tesla, it's kind of the the the scale winner here in the US. It's also a robotics and automation type of leader as well. It's one of the only that's kind of blended all of those. Where does Tesla fit into this discussion?
在我看来，讨论从中国市场开始和结束，因为从生产角度看，特斯拉全球约一半的车辆在中国生产，上海超级工厂生产了大约80多万辆，并出口到日本、欧盟、英国、澳大利亚等市场。然后说到销售，2025年特斯拉约33%的销售来自中国市场。
they let's say start and end in my opinion with the China market because number one from production standpoint it ships about half of their vehicles globally so around 800 some thousand units were produced in China in Shanghai Giga and exported to markets like Japan to the EU to the UK to Australia okay so we talk about production and then we talk about uh sales around 600 around 33% of sales for Tesla in 2025 came from the China market.
目前特斯拉上海超级工厂每月仍生产6万到8万辆，但国内销售和出口的比例正在变化，出口更多，因为Model 3和Model Y在中国市场已经有些过时了。
Now there's they're they're producing still between 60 and 80,000 units a month from Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory, but the mix of domestic sales to to exports is now changing and they're exporting more vehicles because the three and the Y are getting a little bit long in the tooth in the China market.
特斯拉没有收到消息，今天是下跌日，汤姆，但它上涨了4%。我坐在那里想，摇头，寻找特斯拉上涨的原因。我认为这是因为大家都喜欢特斯拉的原因，以及福特市盈率如此高的原因，是基于机器人技术，对吧？
即将推出的无人驾驶出租车，他们将为此举办发布会。另外，9月底的Semi也会有一个活动。所以也许这就是我们开始看到更多乐观情绪的原因。
Tesla didn't get the memo. Today is a red day, Tom. It's up 4%. Yeah, and I'm sitting there wondering, shaking my head, looking out for some news about why Tesla's higher. I think it's on the back of, you know, what everybody likes Tesla for and why the Ford PE is so high is based on that robotics, right? The robo taxi that's uh supposedly coming out. They're going to have a launch for that. Also, um you know, the semi in late September. There's going to have an event for that. So maybe that is probably the reason that we're starting to see uh a little bit more optimism.
亚历克斯，该股在过去一个月上涨了约22%，7月底时约为297美元，现在已超过360美元。所以我考虑了一个策略，也许我们会遇到一些阻力，股价正触及50日简单移动平均线。所以我考虑了一个中性到看跌的交易，但仍然给我上行缓冲。
我选择了9月月度期权，还有18天到期，这个仓位有两周半的时间。我们将卖出一个虚值看涨期权垂直价差，卖出375看涨期权，买入385行权价看涨期权。这是一个10美元宽的中性到看跌看涨垂直价差。
你大约收取2.60美元的信用，我相信现在交易价格超过3美元。但你收取的信用就是你的利润。所以这个仓位有260美元的风险，约740美元的风险。所以风险大于回报，但你有超过3.5%的上行缓冲才能达到盈亏平衡点，即377.60美元。
The stock has rallied, Alex, over the last month about 22%. It would hit about 297 bucks a share at the end of July. We're now above 20 or $360. So, I looked at a strategy that maybe we get into some resistance here. The stock's hitting right at that 50-day simple moving average. So, I looked at a neutral to bearish trade that still gives me a cushion to the upside uh here. Went up to the September monthly option. So, 18 days expiration. Got two and a half weeks in this position. We're going to sell an out of the money uh short call vertical. Sell the 375 call and then buy the 385 strike call. So, a short $10 wide neutral to bearish call vertical. You're collecting roughly I got $2.60 credit. I believe it's trading over three bucks right now. But the credit you collect is what you can profit on this. So, $260 with about $740 in risk on this position. So, you've got more risk than reward, but you've got over three and a half% cushion to the upside to get to that break even. uh which sits at $37760.
亚历克斯，那个短期375看涨期权到期时价外概率约为62%。所以你有更高的成功概率。你仍然可以在像特斯拉这样的交易中采取方向性偏见，但你可以被动一些，更保守一些。这给了你更多上行空间，然后你才会在这种交易中开始受损。
Probability of finishing out of the money on that short 375 strike call Alex is about 62%. So you've got that higher probability of success. You can still take a directional bias on a on a trade like uh Tesla, but you can be passive, a little bit more conservative. That gives you a little bit more room to the upside before you start getting hurt on this type of trade.