The Intrinsic Value Podcast 对 $TSLA 的判断变化

Can you guess what the two in one is? Uh Tesla and SpaceX. I I was just reading an article in the Wall Street Journal about how >> um it seems pretty likely that uh they're going to merge or you know technically um SpaceX would be the one to acquire Tesla.

Um, and you know, for one, the reason to do it, it would be uh it would unlock a pretty massive pay package for uh for Elon Musk. Um, and it would also give him more control over the combined entity and he is the majority shareholder in in both companies. Um, with hum a humongous amount of uh voting power over over both of them.

So, um, you know, I don't think it's as simple as saying if Elon wants to make it happen, it'll happen. Um, but I do think he wants to make it it happen. Uh, and he has a lot of chips to play to to push together a deal like that.

And so then the question is, would this um SpaceX Tesla amalgamation be something that you wanted to own 30 years from now? And um, boy, I'm conflicted on this one. Daniel, I got to tell you, like to me, for years, Tesla's stock has been the epitome of of just Mr. Market being separated from the fundamentals.

I mean, even in the last two years, uh Tesla's sales have have slowed down. Um there's a lot of political optics surrounding Elon Musk. You have a lot of people protesting Tesla. Um the brand, I think it's fair to say the brand value has has very much been damaged.

Um, and so yet you still have it trading at these like obscene obscene multiples and then you you talking about colonies on Mars and humanoid robots and all this stuff and it's like it's so fantastical that it's it's ridiculous. But then at the same time, I have to say, um, God, I have, uh, my my, uh, uncle-in-law has a has a Tesla. Um, and it, you know, he's got it's all it's got all the, uh, it's got everything in it, you know, all the perks uh, installed and and so it's self-driving and it's incredible. It's like it feels like you're in the future. I there's nothing else like it.

Um, it, you know, to me Teslas feel like the iPhone of cars. Like maybe I'm like dating myself, but you know when we had these flip phones and these, you know, like razor phones and they're, you know, if they felt like a technology of the the 1990s, early 2000s, um, the iPhone felt like, you know, a leap into the 21st century, you know, the next generation of technology.

Um, and when I think about Tesla, it's I, you know, politics aside, um, the, you know, crazy ups and downs in the stock aside, it is really truly impressive technology that they've built. Um, and I I think there's a lot to be said for that.

um I have at times been very tempted to want to buy a Tesla based on the technology and I kind of have moral conflicts uh about doing so. Um, so when I just think about that, uh, 30 years from now, uh, you know, with this kind of incredible technology ushering in maybe the next generation of vehicles, I could see I could see Tesla doing well actually, which um, kind of I don't know, I surprises me to say.

And then when I think about SpaceX too, uh, that's just a business that, um, is, you know, my, uh, my dad worked in in satellites. You know, he spent his career launching satellites into space. And so, uh, I I grew up kind of basically hearing about the importance of what something like SpaceX would be. And then now we've actually seen that kind of business come to fruition.

Um, and and you know, like every time I fly on a plane now, uh, I have I have Wi-Fi, right? And it's because of Starlink. That's incredible. I mean, what a that's like, uh, I want to say life-ch changing, but it's a huge huge value ad.

Um, where uh, yeah, I mean, just what, two years ago, a year ago, um, you know, every time you went went to fly, you had to download all your movies and your music and your audiobooks, and it was like you were preparing to be disconnected from the world. Uh now, you know, now when I fly, I know that I'm going to have Starlink Wi-Fi on, you know, United Airlines and American Airlines. Um I don't know if it's the same in Europe, but in the US there's most airlines are now using Starlink.

And so point being, um that's another really revolutionary technology that it feels like we're just at the cusp of tapping into. Um and if you ask me whether either of the companies are overvalued today, I would say yes. They're both significantly overvalued.

but also um over a 30-year time horizon uh valuation um the price you pay today might not matter so much uh if if some of these growth prospects uh really unfold as I think could be possible. So, I don't know. I I I've been a Tesla bear for kind of a long time. Um I passed up the SpaceX IPO, but on a 30-year time horizon, I could put them in the B tier. Um, I could definitely put them there.

When I look at SpaceX and Tesla, um I would never invest today, but if you ask me would they still exist in 30 years time and will they be more important or less important than today? I'm also quite confident they will be more important.

Um I honestly don't even know what Tesla would do. Do they still produce cars? Are they in robotics or what it is? I'm not quite sure. Um but I do feel like they would still exist.

Um, yet I feel like especially looking at Tesla's financials, I just can't help myself. I mean, we're all value investors still at heart, right? They trade at multiples that are just unexplainable for years now and I'm always waiting on the moment where they go down and they kind of revert to, you know, a multiple that I feel um should be granted to such a company.

So, I just don't want to have this like 30-year time horizon completely mess up my idea of value today. Um, so I think I have to put them into I would probably go with Tesla C to D tier. And let's just put SpaceX there, too, just to um just to sort of, you know, sell them as a couple.

So Sean, you got Btier. I got C2 to D tier. So probably should put it Ctier. And then Kyle, I mean, basically Kyle, you you did the episode on on SpaceX, right? So you should give us some insights on where we should at least put SpaceX.

Yeah, I mean I think someone mentioned what's below the F tier and I'm not sure if they were referring to SpaceX. I would definitely put SpaceX definitely above both anthropic and open AI. Obviously I don't like if you listen to my episode I don't like their their AI segment. I think that SpaceX would be a way better company. Um if it didn't have the AI segment because kind of to what Sean just said with the connectivity in space segment, they are the leaders in that segment.

And granted, yes, there's probably going to be a lot of technological disruption that's going to happen in the future, but man, like I'm not going to say they have a monopoly, but it's an oligopy in both of those. And they're doing really, really well. And they just came out with their their newest numbers and and and on connectivity, they're doing really really well still on that.

Um, and you know, who knows what happens. Like I've heard all sorts of things like you know if they're going to merge with Tesla they're going to use the robots and all that excess compute power will be taken from satellites from the space which will help improve that that segment.

So I mean there's there's just so many unknowables. Um but I will say yes I I I I kind of think to me I I haven't covered Tesla as closely as SpaceX. I kind of like SpaceX's um assets especially in space and connectivity better than Tesla especially like the car business. Not crazy about the robots. who knows that that could be something that's big for them.

Um, so I guess for me, and again, I might be a little bit biased. I'd probably aim for SpaceX and C and and Tesla and D. Uh, so if you're going to ask me to be the tiebreaker, that's kind of where I would put it.

Um, but then we run the risk, you know, are these companies just going to merge, which also would make a lot of sense, in which case, I don't know. I might like SpaceX even less.

Um but yeah, I think that um I think that's a fair place to put them because they, you know, SpaceX it it does have those two segments that I think are probably going to be around for a really really long period of time and and they're they're they're compelling.

But again, both Tesla and SpaceX, the valuation, it's just unfortunate. I completely agree with you, Daniel. They just you look at them and they're like, I I don't I don't get it. It just it doesn't make any sense to me.

And you have to you have to basically factor in that they're going to grow at amazingly fast rates. And you know, there's been times in in Tesla's past where it did. So, you know, who's to who's to say maybe it won't keep doing that.

But it's just, you know, as as a value investor, it's kind of hard to bet on 40% growth for the next decade. I mean, it's just it's just kind of unprecedented.

And growth is actually slowing down, right? Especially for Tesla. So, yeah, I think um you know, I would actually just say your your decision is probably the best because you looked at SpaceX, you also looked closer at Tesla than at least I did, and I think also you, Sean. Um, so I'm pretty happy with that.

Um, I don't know if I would honestly put it up at at SpaceX's level. I might put it maybe closer to Tesla or maybe even even in the the D and E tier personally.