Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 对 $TTWO 的判断变化
投资者问我是否应该在这款游戏发布前买入Take-Two Interactive的股票。《侠盗猎车手》可以说是历史上最成功的游戏系列。他们在《侠盗猎车手5》及之前的作品中，全球累计销量已达2.3亿份。
And investors are asking me if they should buy Take-Two Interactive stock before this game launches. Grand Theft Auto is arguably the most successful gaming franchise in history. They've sold collectively 230 million units worldwide in Grand Theft Auto 5 and before.
因此，投资者高度期待这次发布能成为催化剂，可能提升公司的收入、利润和现金流。所以，即使在《侠盗猎车手6》发布之前，Take-Two Interactive在增加收入方面已经做得不错。
So, investors are highly anticipating this launch as a catalyst that could boost the company's revenue and profits and cash flow. So, even before the launch of GTA 6, Take-Two Interactive has done a solid job increasing revenue.
它还拥有《NBA 2K》系列，该游戏系列也表现良好。
It holds the NBA 2K franchise as well, and that gaming franchise is doing well, too.
过去十二个月的总销售额为67亿美元，相比2017年的大约10亿美元有显著增长。此外，游戏行业有几个趋势可能有助于这款游戏恰逢其时地推出。游戏主机，如索尼PlayStation 5和微软Xbox，现在已经过时，而下一代主机可能会进一步加速《侠盗猎车手》的销售。
当这款游戏在今年11月发布时，它将在当前主机上推出，但在初期销售之后，明年或后年，这些主机可能会升级，升级版主机可能会导致《侠盗猎车手》以及公司其他游戏的销售增加。
Total $6.7 billion in trailing 12-month sales. That's up significantly from around $1 billion in 2017. Furthermore, we've got several trends in the gaming industry that could facilitate the game coming out at just the right time. The gaming consoles, the Sony PlayStation 5 and Microsoft Xbox, are long in the tooth now, and the next generation models of those gaming consoles could further accelerate sales of Grand Theft Auto. Now, when it comes out this November, it'll be coming out on those current consoles, but after initial sales, next year or maybe the year after that, those gaming consoles are likely to be upgraded, and the upgraded versions of those gaming consoles could result in increasing sales of Grand Theft Auto and of course the company's other games.
尽管Take-Two Interactive的销售额持续增长，但其营业盈利能力并未如此。营业利润率在最近一次更新中降至负0.96%，但这比2024年的负30%要好。
Now, while sales have continued to increase for Take-Two Interactive, their operating profitability has not. The operating profit margin has collapsed to negative 0.96% in the most recent update, but that's better than the negative 30% it was at in 2024.
管理团队正在采取更直接面向消费者的策略。其多个系列的经常性收入流，如游戏内购买，正在促进交易量的增加。从光盘版到数字下载的转变也是提高盈利能力的另一个推动因素，因为你不需要支付制造、分销、运输、处理这些游戏的费用，在数字下载模式下，便利性要好得多。
The management team is taking a stronger approach going direct to consumer. The recurring revenue streams, in-game purchases of several of its franchise, are facilitating increasing transactions. And the shift from disk copy to digital download is another facilitator of improving profitability, since you don't need to pay to manufacture those games, the distribution, the shipping, the handling, the convenience factor is so much more better when you're operating on digital downloads.
与利润率下降类似，公司的投入资本回报率也在下降。他们越来越多地投资于《侠盗猎车手6》的开发，试图把一切做到完美。发布日期已经多次推迟，最近一次定在11月19日。
Similar to its declining profit margin, the company's returns on invested capital have been declining. They've been investing more and more into the development of Grand Theft Auto 6 trying to get everything just right. The release date has been delayed and pushed back several times now, and November 19th is the most recent iteration.
希望不再有延迟，我已经看到了一些即将推出的《侠盗猎车手6》的预览、预告片和游戏画面，看起来非常棒。我认为玩家会喜欢这个，管理团队表示这款游戏的预购量惊人、前所未有，这些是管理团队用来描述这次发布需求的一些形容词。
Hopefully, there are no more delays, and I've been seeing some previews, some trailers, some gameplay from the upcoming Grand Theft Auto 6, and it looks incredible. I think gamers are going to love this, and the management team said that pre-orders for this game are astonishing, unprecedented among some of the adjectives that the management team has used to describe demand for this upcoming launch.
随着利润率下降和投入资本回报率下降，股票的估值也大幅下降。目前其远期市盈率仅为22.6，这接近过去几年你能买到这只股票的最便宜水平。
And along with declining profit margins and declining returns on invested capital, the valuation of the stock has decreased meaningfully. It's now trading at a forward price to earnings of just 22.6, which is near the cheapest you've been able to buy this stock going back several years.
此外，我更新了公司的现金流折现估值，得出的公允价值为170美元，而当前市场价格为233美元。
Additionally, I updated my discounted cash flow valuation for the company, and I came to a fair value of $170. That's compared to the current market price of $233.
因此，在估值方面，我得到的是一个混合的图景。远期市盈率显示股票被低估，而我的现金流折现显示股票被高估。综合来看，我认为该股估值合理。
So, when looking at valuation, I'm getting a mixed picture. The forward PE multiple shows me an undervalued stock. My discounted cash flow shows me an overvalued stock. Comprehensively, I will say that the stock looks fairly valued.
我上次评估Take-Two Interactive是在2025年5月9日，当时我告诉投资者，那时它看起来不是一个非常有吸引力的机会。
So, I last evaluated Take-Two Interactive on May 9th, 2025, when I informed investors that it didn't look like a very attractive opportunity at that time.
2026年，该股下跌超过8%，因此其表现明显逊于指数。然而，随着《侠盗猎车手》即将发布以及股价更有利，我认为现在是买入Take-Two Interactive股票的更具吸引力的时机。
因此，我将把该股上调至买入评级，但对此评级的信心或置信度相对较低。
In 2026, the stock is down over 8%, so it's underperformed the index considerably. However, with the upcoming launch of Grand Theft Auto and the more favorable stock price, I think it's now a more attractive time to buy Take Two Interactive stock. So, I will be upgrading the stock to a buy ranking, but I have a relatively low conviction or relatively low confidence level on this ranking.
我很难计算《侠盗猎车手》这款游戏的发布将对公司的收入、销售额和盈利能力产生的影响。对公司将售出的单位数量、平均售价、游戏内购买、订阅收入以及随后为公司整体带来的收益的估计，我很难更精确地估算。因此，在游戏发布之前，我的信心水平不是很高。
It's difficult for me to calculate the impact that Grand Theft Auto, the launch of this game, will have on the company's revenue, sales, and profitability. The estimates of how many units the company will sell, the average selling price, in-game purchases, subscription revenue, and the subsequent benefits it will add company-wide, difficult for me to estimate more precisely. So, at this moment, before the launch of the game, my confidence level is not so high.
但在游戏发布后，我获得更多信息，包括公司销售、单位等初始数据，我可以提高对此评级的信心水平。
But after the game launches and I get more information, I get initial data about the company sales, units, etc., I can increase my confidence level in this ranking.