Stock Market Mentor 对 $URBN 的判断变化
我想看看Urban Outfitters，今天，而且我更想在周三、周四和周五看它，因为我觉得，坦白说，我认为现在这是一个相当好的布局。虽然我会说这是一个有条件的布局，我会告诉你为什么。
I want to look at Urban Outfitters, um, today and more like I'd like to look at it on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday because we've got a I think frankly I think this is a pretty good setup right now. Although I'd say it's a conditional setup, and I'll I'll tell you why.
所以，在周三，老牌的Urban Outfitters，砰，他们的财报公布后股价跳涨，上涨了将近10%，对于一家服装店来说，这算是相当大的涨幅。
So, on Wednesday, good old Urban Outfitters, boom, their report earnings jumped up what popped up almost 10%, which for an apparel store, that's kind of a lot.
好吧，除非你在卖太空服之类的东西，但你可以看到成交量。好的，将近400万股。这是大资金在买入这只股票。你很少看到这样的巨量。我想上一次这么大的量是在这里，就在那里。巧合的是，大约在同一水平。所以，这是一个大的突破。
Okay, unless you're spell selling space suits or something, but you could see the volume. All right, almost 4 million shares. This was big money buying this stock. You just don't see too many skyscrapers like that. I think uh the last one last time it was that big. It was clear back clear back here. Okay, right there. Um coincidentally, right around the same level as this. So, this was a big breakout.
好吧，如果你买入了，比如说你在开盘时买入，不管出于什么原因。我不认为那是好事，但你知道，有人会这么做，所以那里有成交量。你上涨了5%。对吧？假设你在当天晚些时候买入，然后你会想：“天哪，看起来我们有了突破。
下一个目标是90。”好吧，然后你第二天就被狠狠打击了，跳空高开，也许你错过了这里的行情，但第二天早上当它再次跳空高开时，又上涨了一个百分点。我现在要进入这个。你是那个在高位买入的人，股票让你充满希望，然后又把你的希望击碎在岩石上。
Okay, if you got it, like let's say you bought right at the open for whatever reason. I don't think that's a good thing to do, but you know, somebody does, that's why there's volume there. Uh, you're up 5%. Right? Let's say you bought later in the day and you go like, "My gosh, looks like we got us a breakout. Next stop is 90." Okay, then you got absolutely clubbed uh the next day a gap up and maybe you missed the move here, but then the next morning when this thing gaps up again, it's up another another percent. I'm getting into this now. You're the guy bought up here, stock, you know, fills you full of hope and then dashes your uh hope against the rocks.
所以成交量在这里也非常非常大。所以，我们有巨大的机构成交量，对吧？但是，你知道，也有很多散户成交量。否则，你不会看到这样的走势。大的假动作，把所有人都甩出去，然后砰，现在我们又回到了这里。
所以，我认为这有点像是一种流动性攫取，可以这么说。在大幅上涨后把这只股票打压下来，把所有的弱手都甩出去，然后在第二天，也就是今天，周五，又开始买入。
So volume also very very heavy here. So, we got big massive institutional volume, right? But there, you know, there's a lot of retail volume, too. Otherwise, you wouldn't see this kind of move. Uh big whipssaw, get everybody out and then bam, now we're back here again. So, I look at this as kind of a uh it's kind of a liquidity grab um so to speak. Uh knock this stock down after a big move here. knock it down, get all the weak hands out, and then the following day, which is today, Friday, start buying it again.
所以，这仍然高于平均成交量。不像之前那样，我的意思是几乎一半的成交量，也许多一点。不管谁在数，但当我展望未来时，我的意思是，我喜欢这里这个相当浅的碗状形态。你可以把它看作一个杯柄形态。
坦白说，我没看到柄。我只看到这是一个不错的长期牛市，你知道，大约九个月或更长时间。它已经存在一段时间了。
So, this is still heavier than average volume. Not like it was like I mean almost half the volume, maybe a little bit more. Doesn't matter who's counting, but so as I look at this going forward, um, and I mean, I like this kind of fairly shallow bowl here. You can look at it as a cup and handle. Frankly, I don't see the handle. Uh I just see this as a nice uh prolonged bull that's, you know what, nine months or something like that. Uh it's been around for a while.
所以我认为下一个交易动作应该是突破今天盘中高点8543。我会精确地设定它。好的。所以，如果股票突破8543，那就是我的入场点。
And so I think that the next move for a trade would be like a breakout right above today's intraday high of 8543. I'll go ahead and set it exactly. Okay. So, if the stock breaks out above here 8543, that's my entry.
我认为到时候，迟早它会突破的，我只是不知道是在2026年还是我死后26年。但是迟早它会突破那里。所以，当它突破时，我认为那就是入场点，然后你只需要设置一个止损来保护自己。
I think then when and it sooner or later it's going to I just don't know if it's in 2026 or 26 years after I'm dead. Uh but sooner or later it's going to break out there. Um, so when it does, I think that's the entry and then you just want to put, uh, a stop in place to protect yourself.
但是，就像我说的，在我看来，这是一个强大的信号。我会说这是一个强大的3天走势，但我并不真的那样看，因为坦白说，今天发生的事情，你知道，你真的不能说那是强大的。我只是说这是一个强大的信号。
这是一个很好的布局。我认为这是一个非常非常好的布局，因为我们看到了价格所处的位置，以及如果股票突破会发生什么。
But, um, this is, like I said, this is, in my view, a powerful signal. I would say a powerful 3-day move, but I don't really look at it that way because, frankly, what happened today, you know, you you can't really say that's powerful. I'm just saying this is a powerful signal. It's a great setup. uh it I think it's a really really good uh setup because we see what where the price is framed and exactly what would happen if the stock broke out.
另一方面，这非常重要。我实际上在这个周末的视频中谈到了这个。另一方面，如果你现在买入，你只是在预期我所设想的事情真的会发生。我没有水晶球。市场总是告诉我我没有水晶球。所以，你必须等待。
如果你属于Fitzpatrick交易学派，你必须等待这个信号出现后再采取行动。
Now on the other hand and this is really important. I talk about this actually in this weekend video. On the other hand, if you're buying right now, you're just anticipating that what I'm envisioning is actually going to happen. And I don't have a crystal ball. the market always tells me I don't have a crystal ball. So, you got to wait. If you're if you're in the Fitzpatrick uh school of trading, you got to wait for this signal to occur before you take any action.
另一种选择，这不是我的风格，但另一种选择是，说，我真的很喜欢这只股票，所以也许我会开始在80左右建立仓位，类似这样。这也是一种方式。但仅仅对于一个活跃的交易者来说，我认为你必须等待突破。
对于一个耐心的交易者，你知道，可以开始在这里建立仓位。只要确保你知道你的退出点在哪里。好吗？我不是在告诉你怎么交易。我只是在展示两种方式。
The alternative one, it's not my deal, but the alternative one would be to say, well, I really like this stock, and so maybe I'll start kind of building a position down here around 80, something like that. That's another way to go, too. But just for an active trader, I think you got to wait for the breakout. For a patient trader, you know, go ahead and start building a position here. Just make sure you know where your exit is. Okay? I'm not telling you which way to trade. I'm just showing you two of them.