Schwab Network 对 $WDC 的判断变化
现在你的最后一个是价格走势方面的明显赢家。我们说的是 Western Digital，在过去 52 周上涨了 468%，Jessica。所以，请给我们讲讲你对 Western Digital 的看法。
Now your last one is the the clear outperformer in terms of price action. We're talking about Western Digital up, you know, a measly 468% in the last 52 weeks, Jessica. So, take us through your thesis on Western Ditch.
是的，非常有趣的是它是表现最好的，而我们的总债务占资产百分比在增加。所以，这很有趣，因为那可能与回撤有关。他们的总债务占资产百分比约为 8.6%，略低于。他们的自由现金流同比增长约为 30%。
但真正引起我注意的关键数据点是过去 30 天的 EPS 预估。这些修正上升了超过 10%。所以即使一个月回报有点低，对我来说这表明盈利预估在攀升。这就是我所说的有吸引力的估值，我喜欢看价格相对于预估和差异分化，而不是仅仅看市盈率。让我们看看分子和分母，如果你愿意的话。
Yeah, it's very interesting that it's the outperformer and as we're increasing in total debt to percentage of assets. So, it's interesting because that might relate to the pullback. Um, their total debt as a percent of assets is about 8.6% slightly under. They have positive free cash flow quarter over- quarter growth of about 30%. They're really the key data point that caught my attention though is the EPS estimates over the past 30 days. Those revisions are up over 10%. So even though the one-mon return is a little low, that to me is showing me that earning estimates are climbing. And that's what I call attractive valuation is I like to look at the price relative to the estimates and the delta differentiation rather than just a PE ratio altogether. Let's look at the numerator and the the denominator if you will.
我们知道 AI 正在推动所谓的芯片通胀。内存需求激增，这推高了那些价格。所以，我认为如果我们关注今天 Dell 的情况，那将影响 WTC 的情况，因为那加速了 PC、服务器或存储系统的购买。
所以关注这一点很重要。但是，分析师预估在攀升，这是需求的延续，也是需求的延续。
Um, we know AI is driving chipflation, quote unquote. There is surging memory demand, which is pushing those prices higher. So, I think if we pay attention to what's happening to Dell today, that's going to feed into what's happening with WTC as well, because that's accelerating purchases of PCs, service or uh storage systems, service services. So, it's important to pay attention to that. But, it's the analyst estimates that are climbing, a continuation of that, but a continuation of demand as well.
好的，Kevin。那么让我们看看这张图表，因为显然 Western Digital 一直是整个市场的赢家，但正如 Jessica 强调的，我们也看到了这个股票的回落。所以，请给我们讲讲技术面。
All right, Kevin. So, let's look at this chart because obviously Western Digital has been an outperformer in the entirety of the market, but as Jessica highlighted, we've also seen a pullback in this name as well. So, walk us through the technical setup here.
是的，你说得对。从 52 周高点或历史高点下跌 50%，到 8 月 6 日创下的低点。这不是一个好的走势。显然，你不喜欢放弃 50%，但 425 的关口作为短期支撑似乎相当显著。
然而，由于接近 200 日均线，交易者很难在这里感到舒适。它就在我们下方 57 点，位于 425。所以我们必须注意这样一个事实，即我们已经在现在下行的 50 日均线下方 6 周了，今天大约在 520 左右。
但正如我所说，自 7 月 15 日以来我们一直低于它。这很值得注意，因为在我们看到的这次下跌之前，我们已经尝试了三次不同的时间反弹到 50 日均线并试图重新站上它，但每次都失败了。
所以 425 可能是短期支撑。如果不是，那么有可能访问 200 日均线，大约在 370。除此之外，图表只是告诉我们，当我们现在看日线时，我们对当前区间没有太多清晰度。只是与低于 50 日均线六周相关的疲软。
Yeah, you're right. Uh 50% draw down from the 52- week high or the all-time high down to the low we made in August 6. Uh not a great move. Obviously, you hate giving up 50%, but the ledge at 425 short-term support does seem to be pretty notable. And yet it's difficult for traders to be comfortable here because of the proximity to the 200 day moving average. It's a mere 57 beneath us at 425. So we have to pay attention to the fact we're 6 weeks below that downs sloping now 50-day moving average comes in today at about 520 or so. But we've been below it like I said since July 15. And that's notable because we've attempted three separate times uh prior to this uh breakdown that we've seen to rally into the 50-day and try and get back above it and have failed each of those instances. So 425 could be shortrun support. If not, then the potential exists to visit the 200 day around 370. Um beyond that though, the chart here is just telling us that we don't have a lot of clarity about the current range when we look at it on the daily right now. just the weakness associated with six weeks below the 50-day moving average.
是的，而且这再次考虑了技术分析101的内容。在上涨行情之后，我们跌破了。现在，在这张图表上，我们使用的是200周期移动平均线。同样，这是一个90天的窗口，4小时K线，但我们在7月初跌破了它。
所以，如果你是日线图上的中期交易者，你可能还要再等一周才能看到这个信号。但如果你在90天窗口上使用200周期移动平均线，我们可能会提前一周左右捕捉到这一点，而且除了8月中旬有一天高于该均线外，我们基本上一直处于200周期均线下方，但只是不断形成更低的高点，并且确实在425处形成匹配的低点。
那么，我们能否在这里稳住？当然可以。但我要说的是，除了我们以下跌趋势进入并试图盘整这一事实之外，趋势并不明朗。因此，尽管我们想看好，但当你如此猛烈地进入这种性质的下跌走势时，它带有深度的看跌情绪，这确实将责任推给了价格行为。
我认为交易者应该牢记采取这样的方法：“嘿，让价格来决定你是否要在这里采取不同的行动。”因为我们还没有看到它正确。如果我们能突破490，我认为交易者会更愿意抓住机会，但在近期，425仍然是一个非常重要的短期支撑区域。
Yeah. And it's it's just taking again into account technical analysis 101 stuff. After the the move to the upside, we broke down. Now, on this chart, we're using the 200 period moving average. Again, it's a 90-day window, 4hour bars, but we broke it in early July here. So, if you were an intermediate term trader on the daily chart, you may not have seen this for another week. But if you were watching it on the 90-day window using the 200 period moving average, we would have caught this maybe a a week earlier and we've basically been below that 200 period outside of a couple of uh one day above it here in mid August, but it's just been making lower highs and and granted matching lows at 425. So, could we be holding up here? Sure. But I'd say that the trend is unclear outside of the fact that we've come into this in a downtrend and we're trying to consolidate. And so as much as we want to be bullish, when you come into a move of this nature so aggressively to the downside, it's doing so with the deep bearishness and that really puts the onus on price action. And I think traders would be well reminded to uh take the approach that says, "Hey, make price dictate whether or not you're choosing to do something different here." uh because we just haven't seen it right yet. Uh if we can get above 490, I think traders are going to be a little bit more willing to take on an opportunity, but uh in the near run here, 425 still remains a very important short-term area for support.
是的，现在在45361点，但过去一个月回调了16%。
Yeah, right now at 45361, but with a 16% pullback over the past month.