The Intrinsic Value Podcast 对 $WIX 的判断变化
下一家公司。我们来看看 Wix。我觉得它很有趣。我想我们大约 10 周前讨论过它，今天早些时候我给你发了短信。
next company. Um, let's go with Wix. I just I I find it interesting. I think we covered it about 10 weeks ago and I texted you earlier today.
因为显然，Wix 是那种 10 年时间范围与当前价值相比差异最大的公司。我会说在 10 年时间范围内存在最大或最大的差异。
Um, because obviously, you know, Wix is one of those where probably the 10-year time horizon compared to value today is, you know, has the biggest difference. I would say there's the most uh or the biggest discrepancy between those 10ear horizon.
所以基本上，对于不了解 Wix 的人来说，Wix 是一个网站构建器，对吧？基本上你所做的就是使用拖放来创建自己的网站。
So bas basically for everyone who doesn't know Wix is a website builder, right? Um so basically what you do, you can use drag and drop to then create your own website.
这在很长一段时间内都表现得非常好。我想我这里有一些数字。如果你只看 Wix 的财务数据，你看不到人工智能带来的任何重大影响。所以你不会看到两位数的增长，基本上是十几。在收入方面，扩张看起来也一样。
所以经常性收入基本上预订量以两位数增长。合作伙伴收入增长，合作伙伴基本上是更专业的一面。如果你使用 Wix，你就是合作伙伴。基本上，例如，我为大约 10 个人构建 Wix 网站，对吧？
那么我就是合作伙伴，我基本上把这作为我的工作。这更粘性。所以拥有大量合作伙伴更重要。这方面进展顺利。交易增长进展顺利。
Um that worked out phenomenally for a very long time. I think I have some some of the numbers here. If you just look through Wix financials, um you don't see any any big impact from AI. So you don't you're going double digits basically mid-teens. Um in terms of revenue, it also looks the same in a um expansion. So um recurring revenue basically um bookings are going up double digits. um partner revenue growth partner is basically um the more professional side. So you're a partner if you use Wix. Um basically for example I build Wix websites for like 10 people, right? Then I'm a partner and I basically do that as my job. Um and and that's more sticky. So it's more important that you have a lot of partners. Um that's going well. Um transaction growth is going well.
然后我喜欢开始，我也在播客中使用了它。它基本上显示了每个群体随着时间的推移变得多么有利可图。正如你所看到的，年轻的群体，也就是最近的群体，变得越来越有利可图。即使在 Chad GPT 之后，即使在人工智能之后，这仍然成立。
And then I like to start I also used it in the um in the podcast. It basically shows how much more profitable each cohort gets over time. And as you can see like the younger cohort, so the the most recent ones are getting more and more profitable. And that still holds even after Chad GPT, even after AI.
但到目前为止，我认为最重要的事情是 base 44，这是他们开始构建网站的人工智能工具，它增长非常快，非常迅速。但问题是它的利润率是多少，我们还不知道。
But by far the biggest or the the most important thing I would say is base 44, which is their AI tool to start building websites and it's growing very fast um very rapidly. But the question is sort of what are the margins on that um and we don't yet know.
我想我最近和我们社区的一位成员谈过，他说管理层表示，就在 2026 年下半年，他们预计 base 44 的利润率将达到 60%，这将是巨大的，因为现在它只是在亏损。
Um I think I talked to um to one of our members in the community just recently and he said that management said um just in the second half of 2026 they expect 60% margins um for base 44 which would be huge because right now it's just losing money.
但这很大程度上取决于他们能否做到，我认为我们不需要花太多时间。我会给你一个建议，然后你可以说你是否不同意。10 年时间范围，我认为它有机会存活，因为它主要通过 base 44 完全改变了商业模式，但可能性很低。
Um but it very much comes down to can they do it on the I don't think we need to spend too much time. Um I'll give you a recommendation and then you can just say if you disagree 10ear time horizon I think there's a chance it survives um just because it completely changes the business model primarily through base 44 but the chances are low.
如果 Adobe 是 C，那么如果 Adobe 是 C，你实际上会得到，如果 Adobe 是 C，你可能得把它放在 F，但我不能做 F。所以我会把它放在 E 到 F，它很可能不会以目前的形式存在于 Monteneius。
Um if Adobe is C well if Adobe is C you actually get well if Adobe is C you got to put it into probably F but I can't do F. So I would put it E to F where it's pretty likely that it doesn't exist in Monteneius at least not in the way that it currently is.
是的，我认为这是公平的。这有点像人们谈论软件辩论有多个层级时的典型例子。就像，你知道，Adobe 是一个与软件专业人士紧密相连的应用程序，拥有复杂的设计工具，因此可能比 Wix 更有持久力。
Yeah I think that's I think that's fair. It's sort of like the epitome of when people talk about uh you know like there's multiple tiers to the software debate. It's sort of like okay you know Adobe is an application that's entrenched with you know software professionals and uh uh has sophisticated design tools and therefore uh you know might have more staying power with Wix.
所以，我对把它们放在 E 到 F 层级没有意见。然后对于今天的价值，我的意思是，Daniel，你更能说清楚，但我认为你说过自从我们上次看它以来它上涨了 90%。所以，它可能不像我们第一次看它时那么有吸引力了。
So, um I I don't I don't have an issue with having them in the E to F tier. And then for value today, I mean, you'd be able to speak better to it, uh Daniel, but I think you said it's up 90% since we looked at it. So, uh, it it's it's probably not as attractive as it was when we first looked at it.
>> 100%。我觉得有趣的是，我们发布那集节目的第二天，我们收到了很多关于时机不好的评论，因为它下跌了 10%。然后仅仅 7 周后，它现在上涨了大约 90%。
>> 100%. I think the funny thing is we posted the episode, the day after we got a lot of comments on how bad the timing is because it dropped 10%. Um, and then just 7 weeks later, it's up I think 90% by now.
所以它确实表现得很好，正如这条评论所指出的，也是我跟你说的，回购能力就是疯狂。你知道，在这个估值下，他们可以在未来 12 个月内回购近 10% 的市值。我认为甚至更多。我认为从技术上讲，他们可以回购的远不止 10%。
Um, so it did do quite well and as this comment is basically pointing out and what I basically also said to you is like the buyback power is just insane. You know, at this valuation they can buy back nearly 10% of the market cap in the next 12 months. I think it's way more than that even. I think technically they could buy back a lot more than just 10%.
也许现在我得说，好吧，如果估值上涨了 90%，也许今天更准确。我想当我看它的时候，他们在那方面有更多的购买力。
Maybe now I got to say, okay, well, if the valuation went up 90%, maybe that's more accurate today. I think when I looked at it, they had even more buying power on that end.
我认为今天的价值，当我们做推介时，我实际上从个人投资组合中买了一点，不过卖得太早了。但我认为在那个时候，我肯定会把它放在A级。到现在，我认为你更可能再次处于C级。
So, I think value today, um, when we did the pitch, I actually bought a bit of, you know, from my personal portfolio, sold it too early, though. Um, but I think at that point, I would have put it definitely into A. Um, by now, I think you're you're more likely to be in C again.
再说，我认为SAS目前整体上是同步波动的。所以，WIX上涨了90%，那很好。如果整个板块下跌，比如说10%，Wix就会下跌60。感觉波动性大得多。这是一个杠杆赌注。
Again, I think SAS generally moves in tandem right now. So, you know, WIX went up 90% and that's great. If the entire sector goes down, let's say 10%, Wix is down 60. Like, it feels like there's so much more volatility. It's a leverage for bet.
是的，我认为C级没问题，但要预期波动。我认为未来还会有更多上行和下行的空间。如果我的意思是，那是有趣的地方。如果我们说今天它是C级价值，对吧？而且它波动很大，然后我们认为10年时间范围内它是E到F级。
你基本上不能给出买入建议，因为你认为即使现在它波动，10年后它可能不再存在。
>> Yeah, it's I think C is fine, but expect volatility. Um I think there's a lot more um more to come both to the upside and the downside. And if I mean, that's the interesting thing. If we say it's Ctier value today, right? um and that it's volatile and then we think it's E to F tier 10 year time horizon. You basically can't give a buy recommendation at that rate because you think even now it's volatile and then in 10 years time it is likely not to exist anymore.
也是一个好评论。我的意思是，SBC在那个名字中相当高。每年13%的收入增长只需要转为盈利。就是这样。如果你知道基础44，它实际上可以盈利。我认为那非常有吸引力，但这是一个巨大的如果。
Um also a good comment. I mean SBC is quite high in that name. Um 13% revenue growth per year just needs to turn profit. That's it. Like if you know base 44 it can actually make a profit. I think that's very attractive but it's a huge if.
你知道，他们现在正在转向那些更便宜的模型，几乎每家公司都在这样做。但我认为即使是美国公司的代币成本也在过去——天哪，我现在会给出一个错误的时间框架，但我想我们说的是两三个月——减半了。
um you know they're changing to those cheaper models now as pretty much every company is doing. Um but I think even token cost in like the American companies halfed in like the last gosh I would now give a wrong time frame but like I think we're talking about two or three months.
我仍然认为这在很大程度上是一个你现在会下的赌注。
Um still I think it's pretty much a bet um that you would take at take at this point.
好吧，我们得快点。让我们说Duolingo D2E今天的价值，它比Wix更差，就像它可能的那样。
Um, okay, we we got to be quicker. Let's say Dualingo D2E value today it's it's worse than Wix like it can be.
所以，你知道，特别是相对于Adobe、Duolingo和Wix，也许我们应该把它放在S级，因为你知道，10年后……
So um you know especially relative uh to Adobe and Duolingo and Wix u may maybe we should just put it in the S tier because uh you know it in 10 years
如果你只考虑质量，你应该看得更长远，这里是10年时间范围，如果你看到Wix EF Airbnb……
if you just think about quality um you should look out you know longer term and that's 10 year time horizon here if you see Wix EF Airbnb
所以，可能你必须总结它今天的价值，可能只能是——我的意思是，我们有Wix和C级，可能类似于Airbnb，我会说。
Um, so probably you have to summarize it value today probably can only be I mean we have Wix and and C tier probably similar to Airbnb I would say.
它基本上是一个Wix的竞争对手，在某种程度上，比Wix所做的高出10个级别，因为生态系统更广泛。
>> it's basically a Wix competitor to some extent just like 10 levels above what Wix is doing because the ecosystem is much wider