Schwab Network 对 $WMT 的判断变化
我很期待你今天带来的最后一个问题，Mike。你提到的沃尔玛，尽管市场对其业绩是否强劲缺乏共识，但其股价在财报后承压。这里似乎存在巨大分歧。我们看到沃尔玛承压，尽管其美国市场销售额在2027财年增长了52%。
那么，你现在如何看待沃尔玛？你对未来的预期是什么？
I'm looking forward to this last one that you brought today Mike. You've got Walmart here came under some pressure with its earnings despite a lack of consensus about whether or not they were strong. There seems to be a great divide there. We are seeing Walmart under some pressure even though it has a 52% increase in in US marketplace sales in fiscal 27. So, how are you approaching Walmart right now? And what are your expectations going forward?
是的，我几乎会将其归类为一种抄底型交易，但我们确实在略高于102的水平看到了一个非常好的底部形态。而且我认为这些数字并不差。显然，市场期待更好的结果。而且，我认为这种反应有些过度，如果我们能让它启动，上方有显著的缺口。
现在，它的隐含波动率并不高。所以，我打算用日历价差来操作，因为即使我们处于这个交易区间的低端，相对而言隐含波动率并不昂贵。这暗示着日历价差或对角价差，如果你喜欢那种的话。但我打算用看涨日历价差。
所以，我看的是本周，94对918 106的看涨日历价差。甚至没有覆盖那个缺口的一半，或者这是一个看涨日历价差，甚至没有覆盖那个缺口的一半。它会相对便宜。大约85美分，所以我想突破那些近期高点10367。
根据我的模型，这应该能赚大约125到145美元，取决于隐含波动率的表现。所以，对于日历价差来说，这是非常好的风险回报比。而且，相对而言，你有多害怕呢？在这么长时间没见过的价格买入沃尔玛，你能有多害怕？
Yeah, I'd almost classify this as a as a bottom feeder type, but we we did see a really nice base get put in there at about just above the 102 level. And you and you I didn't think the numbers were that bad. Obviously, the market was looking for something even better. And you know, I think that reaction is pretty overdone and we we do have a significant gap to the upside if we can get this thing going. Now, it doesn't uh it doesn't have a whole lot of implied volatility to it. So, I'm going to approach this with a calendar spread because even though we're on the lower end of this trading range, implied volatility on a relative basis is not expensive. That screams calendar or diagonal if you like that sort of thing. But I'm going to go with a with a call calendar. So, uh, I'm looking at next week or no, I'm sorry, this week, uh, the 94 versus 918 106 call spread. So, not even not even covering half of that gap or this is a call calendar, not even covering half that gap. It's going to be relatively cheap. Uh, and uh, for about 85 cents and so uh, I want to get above th those those little recent highs at 10367. And the way I have it modeled out, this thing should make about a$125 to a$145 depending on what implied volatility does. And uh you know, so for a calendar spread, that's really good reward to risk. And you know, just relatively not, you know, I I mean, how scared can you be, you know, buying Walmart at prices that we haven't seen for quite a while?
是的，这里交易成本较低，Rachel。当我们看沃尔玛时，我的意思是，最近它的数字和反应几乎像被放大镜一样审视，但你在技术面上看到了什么，当我们回顾这只股票承受了多少压力？
Yeah, less expensive trade here, Rachel. As we're looking at Walmart, I mean, it's been under really like almost a magnifying lens like scrutiny of late in terms of its numbers and the reaction that we saw, but what are you seeing in the in the technicals as we look back over just how much pressure has been put on this name?
是的，正如你提到的，压力很大，尤其是我们看到了大的双顶跌破，而且股票市场的风险偏好环境对必需消费品并不友好。我们并没有看到很多防御性轮动，就在前一周，我们看到了突破缺口，支撑位的突破表明新的下跌趋势。
然而，我有点同意你的看法。我属于这个阵营：在107的缺口阻力下方的这个小三角形整理最终可能变成衰竭缺口。我在寻找的几个迹象是，MACD可能在低点形成看涨背离。我们还有季节性逆风，季节性因素即将到来。
所以，这可能表明资金会进一步轮动到这只股票，同时也要看一些长期水平。
Yeah, so uh like you mentioned, there has been a a ton of pressure, especially we had that big double top breakdown and the riskon environment for equities really hasn't been great to staples. we haven't really seen a lot of defensive rotation and just the other week we did see that breakaway gap, that break of support as indication of that new downtrend. And however, I I'm kind of uh agreeable with you here. I'm in the camp that this little triangle consolidation below gap resistance at 107 uh may eventually turn into an exhaustion gap. A couple hints I'm looking for uh is is possibly momentum with the MACD forming that bullish divergence off of the lows. we have seasonal headwinds as well with seasonality coming right around the corner. So, it could uh kind of suggest further rotation into this name as well as uh looking at some of the long-term levels, too.
Rachel，我们刚才在谈论它承受的一些压力。但让我们也看看那些更长期的水平，因为当我查看刚刚拉出的五年图表时，我的意思是，沃尔玛上涨了超过100%，在更长的时间尺度上，它肯定不像最近那样受到密切关注。
And Rachel, we were, you know, talking about some of the pressure it's been under. But let's look at more of those long-term levels as well here because I mean, as I'm looking over the the five-year chart that I just had pulled up, I mean, we're up north of 100% in Walmart, it certainly hasn't been under the microscope like we've seen of late over this longer term scale.
是的，我同意。更长期的情况描绘了为什么我相信投资者和交易者会在这些关键水平买入沃尔玛。所以，周线价格正好位于前期高点和38.2%斐波那契回撤位（大约102）的汇合点。这也是他指出的水平。
下行势头一直很强，但MACD显示可能早期出现减弱迹象。所以，我认为对交易者和投资者来说，确认反弹的最大信号将是周线收盘高于那根低点K线。所以，周线收盘高于107以确认反弹，从而推动沃尔玛进一步上行。
Yeah, I would agree. The longer term really paints a picture of why I believe investors and and traders will step in and buy Walmart at these crucial levels. So, we have uh the weekly price sitting right at the confluence of prior highs in that 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 102. So, that was the level that um uh he highlighted as well. And momentum to the downside has been strong, but the MACD is showing that there may be early signs of that waning. So I I would say the biggest signal for a confirmed bounce for traders and investors here is going to be a weekly close above that low candle. So a weekly close above 107 to confirm a bounce for further upside in Walmart here.
好的。我们距离你提到的回撤位大约2美元，距离我们期望收盘以确认部分上行动力的位置大约3美元。沃尔玛目前报10433，今日上涨1.2%。
All right. And we're just about $2 off of that retracement level that you mentioned and about $3 below where we're looking to close to confirm some of this upward movement. We're at 10433 for Walmart. It is up 1.2% today.