你今天有了第一笔交易。XLI，工业板块ETF。工业板块在过去一个月里承受了一些压力。你现在怎么看工业板块？作为一个逆向投资者，这第一笔交易在很大程度上取决于美联储将要做什么。你可能会以为只是油价在给工业板块带来一些压力。
我认为这远比那更深。我认为美元也会在其中扮演重要角色，还有今天晚些时候的债券市场。但在这里我是一个坚定的逆向投资者。我们在XLI中看到的，如果我们看一下图表，我马上就会看，就是极度超卖的状况。
我的意思是，这出现了一些激烈的卖方活动。我关注的一件事，而且我非常是一个量化交易者，我看的是所谓的预期波动，也就是期权市场所描绘的周度风险。在连续五周，数一数，五周里，XLI实际上都触及或超过了其预期波动的下沿。
这就是期权市场再次看待风险的方式。所以如果它说应该波动三美元，而它波动超过了这个幅度，或者达到了整整3美元，连续五周，这就是统计上极度超卖的状况。我在寻找一次短暂但猛烈的向上反弹。
因此，我将选择O 16、O 16到期日。我将买入172看涨期权，172看涨期权，并卖出177看涨期权与之相对。这是我正在购买的一个5美元宽的看涨价差。它略微虚值。寻找我们所谓的向上小幅急拉。
可能有一些空头回补，可能有一些新资金进入一个非常非常被打压的板块。这个5美元宽的价差目前以大约130美元的净支出交易。
You've got your first trade today. XLI, the industrial sector ETF. industrial sector under a little bit of pressure over the last month here. How are you looking at industrials right now?
As a contrarian, this is uh the first trade here is very much largely predicated on what the Fed is going to do. You would think it would just maybe be some oil prices is putting, you know, the industrials under some pressure.
I think it goes far deeper than that. I think the US dollar is also going to play a large role in this as well as the bond market uh later in today's session. But I'm a huge contrarian in here.
What we're seeing in the XLI, if we take a look at the chart, which I'm going to in uh in just a moment, um is just wildly oversold conditions. I mean, this has had some fierce sellside activity.
One of the things that that I look at, and I'm very much a quantitative trader. I look at what's termed expected move, and that is what the option market depicts week-toeek risk to be.
And in five, count them, five consecutive weeks, the XLI has actually exceeded hit or exceeded its lower edge of expected move. That's how the option market again is looking at risk.
So if it says it's supposed to move three bucks, it's moving beyond that or or that full $3 and five consecutive weeks is statistically wild oversold conditions. I'm looking for just a brief, okay, but violent move back to the upside.
As such, I'm going to take an O 16 O 16 expiration. I'm going to buy the 172 calls, 172 calls, and sell the 177 calls against him. It's a $5 wide call spread that I'm purchasing.
It's very slightly out of the money. Looking for uh what we kind of term a a little bit of a rip back to the upside here. Possibly some short covering, possibly some new money coming in in a very very beaten down sector. this uh this $5 wide spread is trading right now at about a$130 debit.