Bearish on AAPL; fading the stock due to extreme $2,200 product pricing and bearish technical setup.

Now your last one I find the most interesting just because of the timing of today's event. You've got Apple as your three in the big three here. How are you looking at Apple?

At some $2,200, I do not love that idea. You know, I'm uh just crazy enough to own just about every Apple product out there. But, uh there's no way I'm paying this $2,200 for a uh for a flip phone.

It's just I think that that's a bit extreme. And you know, I uh uh again, this marketplace in Apple, look uh Rick, I'm not even looking at the chart on this one. I'm fading the flip phone.

That's that's what it comes down to. I'm fading the flip phone. This one's going to be a very very short-term trade. And you know, I've actually seen this with a number of some of the recent product releases from Apple.

So, major product release comes out, the marketplace kind of absorbs it, has a little sellside activity after it. That's really what I'm going after over here. But again, the price increases.

Look, I I you know, I've never said this before, but when it comes to a uh to a phone, a,000 bucks, I can swallow that. Maybe 1,200. Let's get crazy. But when you start talking about $2,000 for a phone, I'm out of the contest at that point.

Uh, with that, I'm going to go out to the SE 18. That's not that far out, right? So, SE 18 is going to be a rather short duration trade. We're not talking zero DTE, but about a week out.

I'm going to be buying the 310 puts, buying the 310 puts, selling the 305 puts again. So, it's just a nice tight $5 wide put spread done for a$140 debit. Just a little sellside activity.

Look, you may see a pop after this announcement, which should actually make this trade even more advantageous to get into, but the uh the truth is I want to fade uh a $2200 flip phone, which uh by the way is uh unfortunately it's a little, you know, too late.

Uh if you haven't looked, uh pretty much everybody out in the Android side already has that. Not saying I'm Android. I'm not going to go that far, but uh I'm not thrilled with the uh the price point on this Apple product.

I I'm personally quite curious to see what becomes of Siri. I don't think I'm being unfair or controversial if I say Siri has been a lagard among AI uh helpers here u to put it mildly.

But we can see here 34457 was our high point that we had shortly before our last earnings event which was July 30th. Uh from there you could draw a boundary line going along uh these subsequent highs that we form.

Not really a trend line yet. A trend line would connect three or more points. But in this case you could say that we have a upward sloping channel that did develop after earnings.

We hit our lows that we established here near 300. We had some relative lows that were formed near 313. But today's price activity, we're dipping below the channel and we're breaking through those relative lows.

So, not really the the greatest setup here if you're uh having a more bullish outlook as the the day is still quite young though. We still have this event coming up. So, uh great deal could change from there, but uh not the most encouraging setup that you could see here. 330 was where we had our gap.

That gap has been filled. Another small gap here near 337 would be two of our notable upside areas to be on the lookout for if things do start to turn around. Now, we can see that we have slipped below our 5-day and 21-day exponential moving averages.

Those come in at about 316 317 or so. We are also approaching our 63-day exponential moving average near 310 to the downside. That could be a supportive area. The longer term the moving average, the more significant it it is as a source of potential support.

We have also broken out of our green trend line on the RSI slipping below our 50 midline as well. So this is starting to uh develop into more of a bearish technical situation at this point.

Now we can see here again we have some very distinct nodes on our volume profile study here. 308 to 314 is an especially heavy trading area here. Another smaller pocket of activity here 295 to 300 as well as a very uh uh slight area here near 330.

All right. And right now, Apple is at 31240, down about 1.2% as we prepare for this event, which will kick off here in about uh 90 minutes or so.