AAPL — All updates

It's new for Apple, but if you follow the consumer tech space, you know, foldables have been around for a half a decade at this point. So Samsung, especially United States, has been making these devices.

Google makes the Pixel. Uh so these devices have been out there. They just never been available to Apple users. And you know, Apple took their time with it, but they did a really nice job of coming out with a Gen One product that basically beats sort of where Gen 7 and Gen 8 products are currently for Samsung.

Uh, Amazon, Apple. Apple, dude, another 3%. Are you fracking kidding me?

second on the list is Apple uh which has been this is a really we're coming off of what will be looked at I think as a pivotal week given the iPhone event that they had u the foldable phone, the the new other other phone that they they have

you know this is an idea uh I just keep bringing a lot like Micron. It's a repeat from last week. Um my opinion is a little bit different. It's not all iPhone. It's more that guy right there.

Very excited about John Turnis and really really excited when these desktop Macs actually get available. I keep, you know, trying to pre-order one. It's pushed out to January. But AI story, I think it's bigger than the iPhone right now.

And a lot of people don't realize that, but you got a new CEO. You got all these new Macs with this AI enhanced hardware hitting the market. And then to me, I'm just kind of sprinkling the iPhone on as a bonus. But love this stock as an AI play.

We got three minutes until we get the print. I'm going to go with this Apple story here. I'm gonna keep my eye on the clock here, but um producer, help me out if I get a little sidetracked, which I'm known to do, it seems.

Uh next story here is actually going to be on Apple. Uh I know we just had the uh we just had the Apple event there. Um so I figured it might be worth researching what centerp counterpoint, I beg your pardon, uh has to say about this.

Um, what do you think about the iPhone Duo? I I think I need to get it because the last iPhone I got was really bad. So, I need an upgrade very soon, but uh I'd like to have a lot of real estate.

I was very on the fence going into the announcement of like I don't know. I could see it like going either way. And 30 seconds in, I'm blown away. I am all the way in. I think it's so spectacular. I I think it's going to be a slam dunk.

like we don't really love Apple but we like it at 300 or we like SpaceX at at 105. So you're prepared to buy it but at a lower price. So that's a good strategy for that.

We got huge news for Apple stock investors on Wednesday as the company announced its first ever foldable iPhone and it'll go to market at less than $2,000 a piece, a price point I was curious if they were going to be able to hit.

So, this is big news for Apple stock investors. I had two big questions surrounding this launch, this event, this product that I wanted to discuss here and update my buy, hold or sell rating for Apple stock and reveal my fair value estimate for Apple as well.

You've got Apple uh actually doing really well here up about 2.3%

Apple's still holding on to a percent despite the rest of the market being a little fussy.

Apple's up about 13.

our take is this phone is going to sell as many units as Apple can produce at least in the near the next 3 to 6 months. but I do think in the near term if Apple can just sell 5% of the install base or 5% of the units to the uh to the dual model that will alone drive about 25 billion of revenues and about five I think work very well u it's supply constraint not demand constraint focus on quality and battery life happen

Let's focus in on Apple's chart as this has been, you know, one of the more fascinating uh stories not only over the last 24 hours, but I will argue going back to late April as it's almost been the counter to the AI infrastructure trade.

This has been a company that has not committed uh to buying and investing to the same extent that many of its mega cap tech peers have. And sometimes on these days where you see the AI infrastructure trade under pressure, it's days like that where Apple is a bit more rewarded.

Apple introduced updates and some new its long anticipated foldable iPhone yesterday at its first event hosted by new CEO John Turnis.

All right, so the foldable phone is here from Apple. What' you think? I think it is far more than I was expecting. I had a little bit of a chance to use it yesterday and it is uh probably one of the best uh foldables on the market and it just it feels like Apple's bringing back this innovative spirit of just new products, new experiences, new devices.

Apple's surprise and shine event took place yesterday. The company introduced iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, new foldable iPhone duo, new Apple Watch models, AirPods 5.

The stock was down yesterday, but it's looking up premarket, even in a down market. Now, it's still down for the week. The stock started the week around 220, but it is actually up in pre-market.

Apple let's talk Apple I'm not here to complain you know I'm not a complainer I'm just trying to sympathize sympathize if I can say that word with guys that are you know having a little bit of um you know back and forth and not a lot of traction um because I've been doing this a long time and I know a lot of guys who've been doing this a long time and they're not loving the tape either.

Um Apple, so I've talked about this a lot. You know the I personally some people like Red Dog, it's like Vision Pro. Remember that freaking thing that Apple had that you know kind of like the metaverse and nobody bought it?

They're like that's what this I'm like no way. like this the the new phone the the foldable phone um I think could sell 10 million units which could add money to the bottom line.

Uh, next up, we've got Apple. Now, forgive me. I've already got my fib tools on here illustrating these pivot lows and highs in which we're going to illustrate where price can eventually go, a price level that I will be interested in buying.

So, let's get back to the weekly time frame so I can really show you what's going on on this chart. You can see here we've did breach the top range of this parallel channel and we'll go back and show you where that began back in January of 2023.

And in doing so, after breaking above, look at this nasty weekly red candle and the price action that's followed since. This has all been bearish consolidation right on top of this parallel channel.

Now, let's flip back on these fib retracement tools and you can see what I'm seeing here on Apple. We've got a very nice potential setup right here under $300, the 618 back to the strongest fib retracement levels.

Why do I pick this level? Because look back here in December 1st of 2025, a previous pivot high that occurred at $28,8862. This fib retracement level is about $5 away from that level.

Both of those combined tell me if we see more further selling pressure, we're likely coming down to this level and could have a decent bounce. The third uh piece of information that tells me that we could come down to this level, well, bare flags produced measured moves, folks.

And what do measured moves give us? They give us a target of where price could go. And you can see what I've just drawn here. That measured move can take price down to 286. Now, I've got three things on this chart telling me price can go down here into this pocket.

If price plunges down into here, that would be even better as we usually see the biggest bounces occur from the sharpest moves to the downside. So, be mindful. Be watching price action under $300 on Apple.

If we do eventually break back within this parallel channel, that value is at 309 and55. Key measured move target down here at 2.8650.

You say what really matters of everything we got today is not this foldable phone, it's not the iPhone 18, it's not the watch, it's not any of that. It is the software update that is coming our way on Monday.

Because it sort of bears out this thesis that I've been putting forth, you know, in the face of much criticism for the last couple of years. And that is that this walled garden that Apple has, what they're now referring to as personal context, is the real value behind what Apple has to offer in AI moving forward.

We're down about 1% right now on Apple stock event finishing here. You could see the typical kind of volatility. Not unusual that on event day the stock goes down. It pretty much happens every time.

And that's also what we said in the alpha report this morning. We're like, bro, it's it goes down every time. [laughter] No guarantees, but it goes down every time afterwards.

Here's my personal reaction on the Apple iPhone Duo and the latest changes to the iPhone Pro 18. This obviously the 17 Pro Max and how they're trying to sort of compete in the iPad Mini space which we happen to have right here.

In my opinion, that's should you buy it and ultimately what is this going to do to Apple's stock? First things first, let's be very clear just up front about Apple stock. I'm not trying to shill this stock.

I think I only have exposure to Apple in my retirement account. It's not even in my main portfolio or my main exposures.