AAPL likely trades down on event day (historical: 1/3 close positive) then bounces next day.

Marie, Apple, that's all she didn't even say good morning, just Apple. Good morning, Marie. And Apple is the big story today. Remember, they're going to have their event. We're suspecting they're going to introduce a foldable iPhone, new iPhone 18 models.

How will Apple trade here today? Apple week in the pre-market. Down about a dollar here. We'll see how that shakes out here today.

Apple, ticker APL, their first foldable iPhone could deliver one of its boldest design changes yet. But getting there may require the company to resurrect an old technology and sacrifice some of its most recognizable premium features.

Apple is expected to unveil its first foldable iPhone at the at its September 9th event with reports suggesting the device could be marketed as the iPhone Ultra and priced at or around $2,000 or more.

The rumored device could measure just 4.5 mm thick when unfolded, creating a major engineering constraint or constraints within the phone's two slim halves. That reportedly means that there may not be enough space for Apple's True Depth hardware, which powers Face ID.

Instead, Apple could bring back Touch ID by embedding the fingerprint sensor in the sidemounted power button.

The compromises may extend to photography as well. Reports suggest the foldable phone could feature two 48 megapixel rear cameras, wide and ultra wide, rather than the three camera setup found on Apple's Pro models.

That would leave the device without a de dedicated telephoto lens. Apple has already left the telephoto camera off of the standard iPhone 17 and iPhone Air. However, with the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max retaining the telephoto lens, the rumored iPhone Ultra could fall short of Apple's top tier iPhones in photography.

Other rumored emissions, excuse me, other rumored omissions include a physical SIM tray, action button, and possibly Mags Safe, although some of those details remain uncertain.

Notably, Apple analyst Mark German told Tom's Guide that all indications point to the foldable iPhone retaining MagSafe.

Analysts see the iPhone Ultra as a design first compromise with Apple betting that its slim, crease resistant build and premium foldable experience will matter more to buyers than the pro features it leaves out.

Previously in his PowerOn newsletter, German said early testers have praised the rumored iPhone Ultra's pocketability, durable hinge, and larger screen app experience. However, the lack of a telephoto camera and Face ID could limit its appeal despite its premium positioning.

And um producer, let me know. But doesn't this kind of confirm that they're leaving out that third lens that we just talked about in the story? I only see two lenses here. You're going to have to let me know.

To me, it looks like without before the event here, it looks like that's been confirmed.

What is it going to mean for Apple? We're going to have to find out that event coming here today. Folks, Apple, ticker APL, gained ground in the global smartphone chipset market in the second quarter,

Counterpoint said Apple's chipset shipments increased slightly year-over-year in the second quarter and stronger sales of the iPhone 17 series, particularly the Pro models, supported growth.

The firm expects A19 series shipments to exceed those of its predecessor. It cited stronger iPhone 17 demand compared with the iPhone 16 lineup and solid Pro models across regions.

Apple captured 19% of the smartphone chipmaker market or chipset market in the second quarter

So, is Apple stealing up more? Is the phone not going to have all of the cameras that people have become accustomed to? Is Apple cooked?

and Apple uh but I know that T10 was getting asked about earlier in the show

Apple's getting mentioned here in the chat. Remember that, uh event starts at 100 p.m. Eastern. They have another event. Well, it's the event. This is the new iPhone event where we suspect we're getting the foldable phone here today. That event is finally here today.

P picassa bro uh mentioning that this is flirting with its VWAP. We are actually above it. So Apple was weak in the pre-market. We did recapture it. Would really kind of like to see this go red green.

We're not that far from that. So we'll see if we can do a red green here, but just keep in mind that the event starts at 1 p.m. Eastern time.

And then several of you folks mentioning Apple here, ticker APL, ahead of its uh, event here today. Apple, we did it red to green here. Now, the next stop for Apple here, I'm really thinking 317. That's not far here.

A lot of tech names with call buying. Apple, Spotify, Tesla, Nvidia, um Micron right there at the top, although that one's a little bit delayed.

This is, excuse me. This is also causing individual names to move. Here's Apple rolling over as well. Come on, chart.

Um Biscuit saying, "Can we talk a little about Apple?" We did. Do you think the stock will go up? Um, I would really wish I had someone that had some a seasonality stats here, but I'm pretty sure that generally these days where it has their events are volatile.

They're not they're not um it's not common that it goes up. Let me check that though. Let me see if Mr. Claude can help with that.

I mean, do they do they typically have an an Apple event in early September? Yes. Okay. Um well last year on uh se Tuesday September 9th 2025 this was the third down day it had and then the next day was uh where the price action had bottom before it went on another rally that took it to uh well it ended up going to new all-time highs but it first went to the uh the previous all-time high which

last year on uh se Tuesday September 9th 2025 this was the third down day it had and then the next day was uh where the price action had bottom before it went on another rally that took it to uh well it ended up going to new all-time highs but it first went to the uh the previous all-time high which was back made back in December 2024.

So I if if there's any, you know, repeat of this, then there may be, you know, another down day tomorrow followed by recovery um going into next week if there if if we're going to repeat any of that.

we were right at the 20-day SMA in September uh 9th last year as well, and we lost that moving average and then recaptured it uh either later that week or or next week.

Historically, Apple tends to trade down slightly on the event day itself, then bounce back the next day.

A data set covering 24 iPhone launches since 2007 comprise that data. So, uh today uh this is the 9th on you know and back in 2025 we were above the uh 20-day SMA. The very next day we uh opened above it and lost that level. closed beneath it and then um the remainder of the week like the next two days it started to recover and it went on a whole new run.

So maybe the play here is just to wait out the event. Maybe the next day is a better time to pick it up according to, you know, if there's any if there's any, you know, repeat of what we got last year or even a rhyme.

On the event day, the stock fell more often than not. only one in three launch days closed positive with an average decline of roughly 3ten of a percent. the day after 13 usually recovers 15 of 24 or 62 and a half% saw Apple close higher the next session on average of about a half a percent.

iPhone 18 will not be released this fall, announced to be released in the spring of 2027. But the pre-orders start for this like they normally do, don't they?

And the the U last year that wasn't the case where the very next day it uh it it recovered. It was the day after the next day that it recovered and that was just for 2025. So, uh, if you're looking at 10 years worth of seasonality, then that might, uh, you know, be different where there's been it's been the next day. The last year it wasn't.

Bank of America Research, which is also cited by Yahoo Finance, found that Apple gained in the 60 days following an iPhone reveal in 17 of the past 19 years, with the biggest 60-day pop being 20% after the 2019 iPhone 11 reveal.

The September lineup might exclude a base iPhone 18 by punting it to the spring along with the rumored iPhone Air sequel. Okay, but that's not all of them. That's just some of the base models and the iPhone Air is one of the lower models.

I would not be surprised if Apple absolutely dominates in the and you can't even see the crease. Like that to me would be the expectation.

We have the Apple event right now, which I don't know if something leaked or people aren't happy with something, but Apple's absolutely dumping.

Look at these. Look at look at Apple today. Started to rally and boom. Damn.

Wow. Apple's still tanking here. We're going to have to say something really great about the But they're not. They're going to tell you they're going to tell you that the that the phone's going to be pushed off till spring because they not ready.

Apple positive, negative after the event. I think what it's going to happen is I think we're maybe see initial pops and it's just going to be fades. So, that's my thoughts. the stats I gave out earlier, one in three launch days closed positive, but 15 out of the 24 previous launches, it closed green after the day after starting the day after.