AMZN is fairly priced for an 8% return (good buy) but not undervalued enough for a 15% target; speaker waits for a downturn to buy.

Amazon now I have had it here at a 7% return but I am the one that was discussing Amazon at 90 as a buy value. Now it's much different.

If I look at Amazon, if I click here, if I use the earnings as input, if I look at the growth rates, I always expect for comparative reasons a return of 10% that therefore the discount rate of 10% be ratio of 20 down the road, Amazon is slightly overvalued for that.

If they grow at a higher rate 20% for the next 5 years than 15 P ratio of 25 then it's actually undervalued now from a ugly margin of safety bad recession market crash scenario then it is nearly overvalued but let's put some percentages probabilities from what the market is expecting Amazon is not expensive if I put here an 8% return Amazon is fairly priced for an 8% return.

If I put it in the comparative table, here you have it around 8%. So from that perspective, I think it is a good buy now, but I'm a value investor. I need great buys, not good buys.

My target and my performance over the last eight years has been 15%. I'm always looking for those 15% potential returns. And when I look at Amazon, I'm waiting for that recession, for that ugliness, for that bad investment, something that goes wrong that say, "Oh, this was a mistake."

But the underlying business staying healthy and that is the downside and that is all you need one year in the next 10 years to add a great business like Amazon to your portfolio.

That's why we have it on the quadrant to follow it over the next 10 years and we build portfolios. So, I'm leaving Amazon there. Perhaps as the stock price went a little bit higher, I'm putting it a little bit towards the left for a 7% return.