AMZN定价合理，可实现8%的回报（值得买入），但未低估到足以达到15%的目标；等待市场下跌时再买入。
逐段跳播
这条视频里关于 $AMZN 说的每一段，按说话顺序排列。点任意一行，上面的视频跳到那一刻。
关于亚马逊，我目前将其预期回报率设定为7%，但我此前曾讨论过在90美元价位买入亚马逊的价值。现在情况大不相同了。
Amazon now I have had it here at a 7% return but I am the one that was discussing Amazon at 90 as a buy value. Now it's much different.
如果我查看亚马逊，点击这里，使用盈利数据作为输入，观察增长率，出于比较目的，我总是预期10%的回报率，因此折现率为10%，远期市盈率为20倍，据此亚马逊略微高估。如果未来5年其增长率更高，达到20%，对应15倍市盈率或25倍市盈率，那么它实际上是被低估的；但在恶劣的安全边际、经济衰退或市场崩盘的情景下，它几乎处于高估状态。
让我们根据市场预期赋予一些概率百分比：从市场预期的角度来看，亚马逊并不昂贵。如果我在这里设定8%的回报率，亚马逊对于8%的回报率而言定价合理。如果将其放入比较表中，你会看到它在8%左右。
从这个角度来看，我认为现在是一个不错的买入机会，但我是一名价值投资者。我需要的是绝佳的买入机会，而不仅仅是不错的机会。我的目标以及过去八年的业绩表现一直是15%。我一直在寻找那些具有15%潜在回报的机会。
当我看亚马逊时，我在等待那场衰退、那种糟糕的局面、那个错误的投资，也就是出现某种问题让人惊呼“哦，这是个错误”的时候，但底层业务保持健康，这就是下行风险所在。在未来10年中，你只需要一年这样的机会，就能将像亚马逊这样伟大的企业加入你的投资组合。
这就是为什么我们把它放在象限图中跟踪未来10年，并以此构建投资组合。所以，我把亚马逊留在那里。也许随着股价稍微上涨，我把它向左移动了一点，对应7%的回报率。
If I look at Amazon, if I click here, if I use the earnings as input, if I look at the growth rates, I always expect for comparative reasons a return of 10% that therefore the discount rate of 10% be ratio of 20 down the road, Amazon is slightly overvalued for that. If they grow at a higher rate 20% for the next 5 years than 15 P ratio of 25 then it's actually undervalued now from a ugly margin of safety bad recession market crash scenario then it is nearly overvalued but let's put some percentages probabilities from what the market is expecting Amazon is not expensive if I put here an 8% return Amazon is fairly priced for an 8% return. If I put it in the comparative table, here you have it around 8%. So from that perspective, I think it is a good buy now, but I'm a value investor. I need great buys, not good buys. My target and my performance over the last eight years has been 15%. I'm always looking for those 15% potential returns. And when I look at Amazon, I'm waiting for that recession, for that ugliness, for that bad investment, something that goes wrong that say, "Oh, this was a mistake." But the underlying business staying healthy and that is the downside and that is all you need one year in the next 10 years to add a great business like Amazon to your portfolio. That's why we have it on the quadrant to follow it over the next 10 years and we build portfolios. So, I'm leaving Amazon there. Perhaps as the stock price went a little bit higher, I'm putting it a little bit towards the left for a 7% return.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。