AMZN is a buy; fair value $314 vs price $261 implies ~20% upside in 12-18 months due to AWS growth and margin expansion, outweighing capex/concentration headwinds.

the first stock I'm going to highlight as a great buying opportunity is Amazon. I've calculated a fair value for this stock at $314 per share and the current market price is $261.

Given that difference, I calculate roughly 20% upside over the next 12 to 18 months for Amazon stock. The company's most recently completed quarter was excellent, reporting accelerating growth in its AWS segment with expanding margins approaching 40%.

Of course, one of the other bullish segments for Amazon is the improving operating profit margin as it's lowering its cost to serve customers as it densifies its networks worldwide.

Two of the bearish factors surrounding Amazon is the soaring capital expenditure budget. Management team increased the budget to $220 billion for 2026. That was up from 200 billion previously and the highest among any company in the world.

Another factor that's a bearish weight on Amazon is its customer concentration risk with Open AI and Enthropic consuming so much of the computing power that Amazon is renting out.

Still, despite those headwinds, I think this is an excellent buying opportunity and I own Amazon stock in my portfolio and I'm interested in adding more.