AMZN is a leader in e-commerce and cloud; despite competition, strong AI/compute demand and historical execution support buying dips for long-term upside.

Yeah, the competitive landscape for Amazon it's getting tougher, you know, on the the AWS side especially, the cloud computing side. There's only so much that Amazon can supply.

It's pretty near its supply constraints right now.

We've seen a really strong uptick in developer uptake of using Microsoft's cloud platforms versus Amazon's and Google.

but, you know, overall Amazon is the leader in the space on both sides, e-commerce and cloud computing. We expect it to stay that way.

This has been one of the best companies in the world for a very, very long time. And one of those companies where pretty much buying the dip at any point in the last 25 years has been a good move.

And we think with the stock down 13% here from its highs, pretty good opportunity. You know, we think that a lot of these stocks got a little bit ahead of themselves with the AI buildout race and that sort of thing.

So, we're kind of correcting back to the mean here.

We think Amazon's pretty fairly priced short-term, but long-term one of the best companies in the world

and one that if you'd bought a 13% dip every time it came off of all-time highs, you you would be sitting in in good spot over the last couple decades and we think that's uh true moving out into the future as well.

It's one of those rare companies that gives you both exposure to the upside in consumer demand which we see remaining strong and upside in the AI arms race which we also see remaining strong despite the recent headlines.

AWS was about 39% which was above the the whisper about 35%

We'll see how well AWS's profit margins can maintain into this competitive landscape. But, on the demand side, you know, we see this continuing to grow. You know, a flatline for AWS consumer demand does not mean a flatline for revenue.

Their existing customer our can use more and more. They can use pretty much as much compute as Amazon can give them.

So, a flatline when you're the leader in a growing space and your clients are spending as much as they can is actually pretty good news. but Amazon is the leader for a reason. They remain the first choice for most customers on the AWS side and the e-commerce side. So, it's their game to lose.

When you look in terms of share performance of Alphabet Google compared to Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet Google is still outstripping Amazon and Microsoft.

What does Amazon/AWS need to do to hold onto I guess its positioning and you know, get some market share from these other two? Yeah, on the on the AWS side, they've got to maintain that 35% growth rate.

I think that's kind of the line in the sand and they've got to display that they continue they can continue to do so at very high gross margins.

If they can do that, then the sky's the limit. I think some of the fears about Amazon AWS are that they're not in this competitive environment, they're not going to be able to maintain those margins or growth rate forever, which is fair until you start to consider how much more people are using compute because of what AI can offer them.

If you think that these build-outs are going to create too much supply, i.e. AI will spending and and growth will actually slow down, then Amazon's probably a pretty tricky bet at least in the short term.

But if you think like we do that the AI computing demand is only going to grow and is only going to accelerate from here, then all three of those companies, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon have considerable upside from here.

And then one other thing I like to throw out there just because it's mind-blowing to me is that, you know, Amazon's stake in Anthropic uh would be larger than many, many S&P 500 companies in terms of market market cap.

And that's just a mind-blowing stat to me I had to pass on today that just their their bet on Anthropic is bigger than a lot of S&P 500 companies in terms of enterprise value at this point.

So they've got a lot riding on AI. We think they're well-positioned. We think that the tailwind continues and accelerates.

But the market is a little cautious right now. And we understand that as well, but just disagree. You know, everything gets lost now with the cuz AWS is their biggest profit maker at this point.

When you look across all their segments including retail, they just announced their their Prime Days in early October. And then you look at advertising, you look at subscription services.

I mean they're doing well on all those you know, segments of their business, right?

Yeah, they are. They're the leader. when it comes to Amazon, I think the default position for most investors should be to hit the buy button.

It's worked for multiple decades. This is a company that has executed against opportunities as well as you know, any company in the history of the world and there's no sign that that's going to stop anytime soon.

So you know, we all use Amazon every day or or at least every week. I know in our household there's an Amazon package it seems like on our front door every day. We're using Amazon data centers in our business every day at a growing pace.

So we like the idea of investing in companies that we enjoy being customers of and Amazon has been that for, you know, 20 25 years now and deserves the benefit of the doubt we think in terms of their ability to execute in the future.