Amazon's diversified strength and logistics moat position it well for agentic commerce; current valuation is reasonable.
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Now next up we have Amazon. This is holding number four in size, a 12% position. It's a $180,000 position, $55,000 in the green. Now, a lot of people have complained about Amazon because the stock really doesn't rock it up like a lot of other companies.
It's been a little bit of a lagard over the past five years, but if we look at the the chart here, it actually doesn't look that bad. Amazon is up 50% in the past 5 years. The S&P 500 is up around 70%.
So we have a little bit of underperformance in Amazon over the past 5 years. But if you invested in Amazon any time period during the dip, which it gave you ample time to buy, then then you've outperformed the S&P 500.
So unless you bought right at the beginning of the 5-year period and never bought again, you probably have outperformed the S&P 500 investing in Amazon. Furthermore, when we look at the 10 years, this is where it really outperforms the S&P 500.
Amazon is up 495% over the past 10 years. The S&P 500 is up around half of that. So unless you invested at the worst time period only only 5 years ago during this plateau of the stock price, that is really the only time period that you had poor performance.
The stock has actually done well and it's done so with a low amount of risk.
Amazon remains one of the most powerful diversified companies in the world. You're not taking some huge gamble by investing in Amazon. You're not rolling the dice with this company.
And I'm very excited for Amazon. Not only do I believe that this company is wellprepared for an agentic commerce world, there is some concern that people will be able to aggregate Amazon.
I I think that those concerns are are fair. Amazon does have some exposure there, but they're likely a little bit overexaggerated. Amazon is so powerful. Their logistics network is crazy.
You're not gonna have shopping agents be able to just get customers off of Amazon onto other Shopify sellers and it will crush Amazon. I do not see that happening. The reason that people use Amazon in large part is because of the entire experience.
The ability to have a trusted seller, instant customer service, a pipeline of all of your all of your purchases, everything in one place. All of that is really convenient. And even in the case of Aentic Commerce, there's also a reason to believe that Amazon could be a winner here.
Andy Jasse is for sure going to make it so that they have these agentic abilities built within Amazon. Muse is not going to be the only agentic shopper. You're going to have other ones by both OpenAI, Anthropic.
You'll have ones by Google. For sure, they're going to have an agentic shopper and likely Amazon. So, I see all of them playing at this game. I don't believe it's going to impact Amazon's revenue as much as you might believe.
At a 26 PE ratio, I still again feel that these companies are not overvalued. I don't believe that Google's overvalued or Meta or Amazon. Investors are very concerned about these companies because of the capex spend, but you're seeing the returns already.
You're seeing what they're able to do with their customer base, with the tools that they're they're creating, with the revenue streams that they're growing. The companies that own the distribution and the massive networks are Google, Meta, Mastercard, Amazon, and Microsoft.
Over time, more and more of the economics will shift over to these companies.
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Joseph Carlson After Hours has 2 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.