Amazon 多元化的实力与物流护城河使其在代理式商务中占据有利位置,当前估值合理。
逐段跳播
接下来是 Amazon。这是持仓规模第四大的股票,占比 12%。这是一个 18 万美元的仓位,浮盈 5.5 万美元。很多人抱怨 Amazon,因为这只股票的走势确实不像其他很多公司那样强劲。
过去五年它有点落后,但如果我们看这里的图表,其实看起来并没有那么糟。Amazon 过去 5 年上涨了 50%。标普 500 上涨了约 70%。所以过去 5 年 Amazon 确实略有跑输。
但如果你在回调期间的任何时间段买入 Amazon——它给了你充足的时间买入——那么你就跑赢了标普 500。所以除非你正好在 5 年期的起点买入、之后再也没买过,否则你投资 Amazon 很可能都跑赢了标普 500。
此外,看 10 年维度,这才是它真正跑赢标普 500 的地方。Amazon 过去 10 年上涨了 495%。标普 500 上涨了大约一半。所以除非你只在最糟糕的时间段——也就是 5 年前股价平台期的那个时点——买入,那才是你唯一表现不佳的时间段。
这只股票实际上表现不错,而且是在风险较低的情况下做到的。
Now next up we have Amazon. This is holding number four in size, a 12% position. It's a $180,000 position, $55,000 in the green. Now, a lot of people have complained about Amazon because the stock really doesn't rock it up like a lot of other companies.
It's been a little bit of a lagard over the past five years, but if we look at the the chart here, it actually doesn't look that bad. Amazon is up 50% in the past 5 years. The S&P 500 is up around 70%.
So we have a little bit of underperformance in Amazon over the past 5 years. But if you invested in Amazon any time period during the dip, which it gave you ample time to buy, then then you've outperformed the S&P 500.
So unless you bought right at the beginning of the 5-year period and never bought again, you probably have outperformed the S&P 500 investing in Amazon. Furthermore, when we look at the 10 years, this is where it really outperforms the S&P 500.
Amazon is up 495% over the past 10 years. The S&P 500 is up around half of that. So unless you invested at the worst time period only only 5 years ago during this plateau of the stock price, that is really the only time period that you had poor performance.
The stock has actually done well and it's done so with a low amount of risk.
Amazon 仍然是世界上最强大的多元化公司之一。投资 Amazon 并不是在冒什么大险。你不是在跟这家公司掷骰子。我对 Amazon 非常兴奋。我不仅相信这家公司为代理式商务的世界做好了充分准备,也有人担心人们将能够聚合 Amazon。
我认为这些担忧是合理的。Amazon 在这方面确实有一些敞口,但这些担忧很可能被略微夸大了。Amazon 太强大了。他们的物流网络非常惊人。购物代理不可能直接把客户从 Amazon 拉走、转到其他 Shopify 卖家那里,从而击垮 Amazon。
我不认为这会发生。人们使用 Amazon 很大程度上是因为整个体验。能够拥有可信的卖家、即时的客户服务、你所有购买的管道,一切都在一个地方。所有这些都非常方便。即便在代理式商务的情况下,也有理由相信 Amazon 可能成为赢家。
Andy Jasse 肯定会让这些代理能力内建于 Amazon 之中。Muse 不会是唯一的代理式购物者。还会有 OpenAI、Anthropic 推出的其他代理。还会有 Google 推出的。
他们肯定都会有一个代理式购物者,很可能 Amazon 也会有。所以,我看到他们都在参与这场游戏。我不认为这会对 Amazon 的收入产生你想象中那么大的影响。
Amazon remains one of the most powerful diversified companies in the world. You're not taking some huge gamble by investing in Amazon. You're not rolling the dice with this company.
And I'm very excited for Amazon. Not only do I believe that this company is wellprepared for an agentic commerce world, there is some concern that people will be able to aggregate Amazon.
I I think that those concerns are are fair. Amazon does have some exposure there, but they're likely a little bit overexaggerated. Amazon is so powerful. Their logistics network is crazy.
You're not gonna have shopping agents be able to just get customers off of Amazon onto other Shopify sellers and it will crush Amazon. I do not see that happening. The reason that people use Amazon in large part is because of the entire experience.
The ability to have a trusted seller, instant customer service, a pipeline of all of your all of your purchases, everything in one place. All of that is really convenient. And even in the case of Aentic Commerce, there's also a reason to believe that Amazon could be a winner here.
Andy Jasse is for sure going to make it so that they have these agentic abilities built within Amazon. Muse is not going to be the only agentic shopper. You're going to have other ones by both OpenAI, Anthropic.
You'll have ones by Google. For sure, they're going to have an agentic shopper and likely Amazon. So, I see all of them playing at this game. I don't believe it's going to impact Amazon's revenue as much as you might believe.
在 26 倍市盈率下,我仍然觉得这些公司没有被高估。我不认为 Google 被高估,也不认为 Meta 或 Amazon 被高估。投资者非常担心这些公司,因为资本开支,但你已经看到回报了。
你已经看到他们能用自己的客户群、用他们正在打造的工具、用他们正在增长的收入流做到什么。拥有分销渠道和庞大网络的公司是 Google、Meta、Mastercard、Amazon 和 Microsoft。
随着时间推移,越来越多的经济效益将转移到这些公司。
At a 26 PE ratio, I still again feel that these companies are not overvalued. I don't believe that Google's overvalued or Meta or Amazon. Investors are very concerned about these companies because of the capex spend, but you're seeing the returns already.
You're seeing what they're able to do with their customer base, with the tools that they're they're creating, with the revenue streams that they're growing. The companies that own the distribution and the massive networks are Google, Meta, Mastercard, Amazon, and Microsoft.
Over time, more and more of the economics will shift over to these companies.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。