CNHI lacks competitive advantage in a down-cycle; avoid due to low margins and uncertain timing.

So, we continue, CNH Industrial produces tractors and agricultural machinery, and has been stable over the past few years, while this agricultural sector has been suffering from a headache from 2021 to 2022 due to excessive investment and purchases. The course takes more than 6-7 years. And now we are still on the downward side of the cycle. Sales are stable, but margins are declining due to competition. Operating cash flows are significantly low. Recent earnings show that cash flows are slightly better than expected. Therefore, the stock rose slightly immediately. However, forecasts still indicate an overall market decline of 5-10% for 2026. They will have steady sales with potential price increases. The margins are low. When the margins are good, they make good money. And you can see here that they have slightly improved their free cash flow position. Also, net sales, this has a positive impact on the share price. Profits are slightly high. However, it all comes down to the crop rotation. And this cycle, yes, in a good year they can make 2 billion, which will push the market value up by 10 billion. However, this means an increase of 50, 60 or 70%, and possibly more, in light of the agricultural AI boom. On the other hand, it is a defensive strategy where it should not be associated with recession. But when will the agricultural cycle change ? 2027? 2028? Simply put, one might say that I am bored with this. Can I find a competitive advantage? It is not a highly competitive bet that may or may not succeed. If I don't have an advantage when looking at these things, it's better to find something else. Therefore, CNH will also step out of the picture to clarify things a little.