Copper faces a potential crash ('accident') driven by overcrowded long positions and high inventory levels.

And if you look at copper over the last 3 4 years, it trades at two to three times the volatility of the S&P 500 and it's underperformed. Now this year it's performed. That's an accident waiting to happen.

What's going on with copper? Yeah, just today it's down 5%. I've been calling copper an accident waiting to happen. The question is is the accident starting?

Um and the bottom line is the key facts of copper is everybody gets the fundamentals. People always repeat that and I love when we get to near extremes and people repeat the same stuff that some of us pointed out 5 years ago but um AI electrification decarbonization all that the bottom line is if you look inside the market it's an accident waiting to happen

first of all it's manage money net it's CME copper first off CE copper is the center of the global universe because what's happened in tariffs it pumped it up 70% of global inventories of the major exchanges include CME um the Shanghai futures exchange and the LME are now in LME or CME type warehouses.

That's the highest ever. That's like 700,000 tons. Total inventories of copper globally are very high.

But I'll just contrate in CME managed money net positions. Hedge funds are way long copper contract. They've been since it popped above five last year. They've been running 20 to 30% of total open interest net long. They're way long.

And if you look at copper over the last three, four years, it trades at two to three times the volatility of the S&P 500 and it's underperformed. Now, this year's performed. That's an accident waiting to happen.

It's stuck in the middle of tariffs. It just needs a little trigger. And so far, we're hearing a little bit today's there's a little bit push back from the potential US tariffs and what's happening, but I think it's a way distorted metal.

And the bottom line is it's complete stock puppet. If you look at the S&P 500, it's correlation. And I'll end with the key fact. the SN the HG1 that's the ComX copper CME copper now it's a 100 day correlation with the S&P 500 is about 62 that's the highest ever with the market going up in the history of that copper contract since 1988