铜面临潜在的崩盘（“事故”），其驱动因素是过度拥挤的多头头寸和高企的库存水平。
逐段跳播
如果你看过去3、4年的铜，它的波动率是标普500的两到三倍，而且它表现落后。今年它表现不错。这是一场迟早要发生的事故。
And if you look at copper over the last 3 4 years, it trades at two to three times the volatility of the S&P 500 and it's underperformed. Now this year it's performed. That's an accident waiting to happen.
铜到底怎么了？是的，就在今天它下跌了5%。我一直说铜是一场迟早要发生的事故。问题在于，这场事故是不是正在开始？
What's going on with copper? Yeah, just today it's down 5%. I've been calling copper an accident waiting to happen. The question is is the accident starting?
而归根结底，铜的关键事实是，人人都懂基本面。人们总是重复这一点，而我很喜欢当我们接近极端的时候，人们重复着一些我们中有些人5年前就指出过的东西，但归根结底，人工智能、电气化、脱碳，所有这些，如果你深入市场内部去看，它就是一场迟早要发生的事故。
Um and the bottom line is the key facts of copper is everybody gets the fundamentals. People always repeat that and I love when we get to near extremes and people repeat the same stuff that some of us pointed out 5 years ago but um AI electrification decarbonization all that the bottom line is if you look inside the market it's an accident waiting to happen
首先，这是管理资金的净头寸，是CME铜。首先，CME铜是全球的中心，因为关税方面发生的事情把它推高了，全球主要交易所库存的70%包括CME，嗯，上海期货交易所和LME现在都存放在LME或CME类型的仓库里。
这是有史以来最高的。这大约是70万吨。全球铜的总库存非常高。
first of all it's manage money net it's CME copper first off CE copper is the center of the global universe because what's happened in tariffs it pumped it up 70% of global inventories of the major exchanges include CME um the Shanghai futures exchange and the LME are now in LME or CME type warehouses. That's the highest ever. That's like 700,000 tons. Total inventories of copper globally are very high.
但我只专注于CME管理资金的净头寸。对冲基金在铜合约上严重做多。自去年它突破5以来，他们一直如此。他们的净多头一直占总未平仓合约的20%到30%。他们严重做多。
But I'll just contrate in CME managed money net positions. Hedge funds are way long copper contract. They've been since it popped above five last year. They've been running 20 to 30% of total open interest net long. They're way long.
而如果你看过去三、四年铜的表现，它的波动率是标普500的两到三倍，而且它跑输了。而今年它跑赢了。这就是一场迟早要发生的事故。
And if you look at copper over the last three, four years, it trades at two to three times the volatility of the S&P 500 and it's underperformed. Now, this year's performed. That's an accident waiting to happen.
它卡在关税的中间。它只需要一个小小的触发因素。而到目前为止，我们今天听到了一点点，来自潜在美国关税以及正在发生的事情的一点点阻力，但我认为它是一种被严重扭曲的金属。
It's stuck in the middle of tariffs. It just needs a little trigger. And so far, we're hearing a little bit today's there's a little bit push back from the potential US tariffs and what's happening, but I think it's a way distorted metal.
而归根结底，它完全是股市的傀儡。如果你看标普500，它的相关性。我用一个关键事实来收尾。SN，HG1，也就是ComX铜、CME铜，现在它与标普500的100日相关性大约是62，这是有史以来最高的，而且是在市场上涨的情况下，自1988年该铜合约问世以来。
And the bottom line is it's complete stock puppet. If you look at the S&P 500, it's correlation. And I'll end with the key fact. the SN the HG1 that's the ComX copper CME copper now it's a 100 day correlation with the S&P 500 is about 62 that's the highest ever with the market going up in the history of that copper contract since 1988
这个频道对 $CPER 的历次判断
David Lin 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。