CRWD business fundamentals are strong, but current valuation (40x sales, 186x fwd P/E) is too high; speaker refuses to buy until price improves.
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The three stocks currently on my watch list are Apple, CrowdStrike, and AbbVie. But I am not buying any of them at the moment. The reason has nothing to do with her business activities. It's all about its market valuations.
Having said that, let's move on to the second stock, CrowdStrike, whose symbol on the stock exchange is CRWD. Now, as for this company, I love its growth story. I have been very frank about the cybersecurity sector, stating that it may be more attractive and promising than artificial intelligence.
So far, this prediction has been completely accurate. Cybersecurity is one of the structural growth markets that I believe will remain extremely important for years to come. Every company is becoming more reliant on digitalization.
The adoption of cloud computing continues to expand. Artificial intelligence increases productivity, but it also creates new cybersecurity risks.
As for CrowdStrike, it has built one of the most powerful platforms in the industry. The Falcon platform allows customers to integrate multiple security products into a single architecture.
Endpoint security, identity, cloud, threat intelligence, and more. The company is doing very well.
Looking at the company's last quarter, you can see, well, the CEO said so himself. The best quarter in the company's history. Those were the words of George Kurtz. Annual recurring revenues reached 5.8 billion.
That was a 25% increase. The company added a record $333 million in new net recurring revenue during the quarter. New net recurring revenue growth accelerated by 51%, and CrowdStrike generated $377 million in quarterly free cash flow. Those are exceptional figures for the company.
So, what's the problem? Again, you already know. It's the evaluation. It's not the company, it's the rating. What am I paying for this company?
CrowdStrike shares rose by 120% over the past year. But look at the rating; it's only at a rating of 55. The biggest obstacle again is evaluation. So, let's take a look at that.
Regardless of the valuation angle from which you view CrowdStrike, the stocks are expensive compared to their averages. These averages are already high. The stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 186 times, an enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio of 126 times, and a price-to-sales ratio of 40 times. 40 times greater from a sales perspective.
It is a growth-providing stock, but much of that growth, and even more, has already been priced into the stock.
But going back to the Stock Investor website, we can see that the average 12-month target price across all analysts is $234. Their target price is actually about 10% lower than today's current price.
Now, CrowdStrike is worth a price premium. I have no problem saying that. The company boasts high recurring revenues, excellent profit margins, a strong management team, strong secular growth, and tremendous opportunity in the cybersecurity field.
It is seeing improved profitability, and the economics of its platform are beyond question.
high recurring revenues, excellent profit margins , a strong management team , strong secular growth, and tremendous opportunity in the cybersecurity field. It is seeing improved profitability, and the economics of its platform are beyond question .
But the question isn't whether CrowdStrike is worth the price premium? It is clear that she deserves it, but the question is how much is this bonus? When evaluating 40 times revenue, a lot, and I mean a lot, has to go perfectly.
When evaluating 40 times revenue , a lot, and I mean a lot, has to go perfectly. Here's what scares me about stocks that trade at extreme multiples. A company doesn't necessarily have to become bad for a stock to crash.
It can simply become a little less perfect. Imagine that CrowdStrike grows by 25% in the future. Wall Street expects tremendous growth in the future. What happens if this growth eventually becomes 20%, and then 18% down the road?
It is still an excellent company, it is still growing, and it is still generating a lot of cash, but investors may decide that we are no longer paying 40 times sales for this. Suddenly you get what is called a compression of complications.
This is one of the biggest risks in investing, and that's why valuation matters.
If CrowdStrike drops significantly tomorrow due to selling on the Nasdaq, but the underlying story remains intact, that catches my attention because I don't need the company to improve.
This is not what I'm looking for. I am already impressed with the company. I just need the price to improve.
CrowdStrike is a high- growth cybersecurity company.
"Crowd Strike" is extremely expensive in my opinion.
When I look at these three companies, Apple, CrowdStrike and AbbVie, I love their work in its entirety, but I don't like their current ratings.
CrowdStrike is an elite cybersecurity platform, but its futures price-to-earnings ratio is 185 times, and its futures price-to- sales ratio is 40 times? Well, that's a very high expectation.
I love CrowdStrike. But I won't buy it now. Because there is a difference between wanting to own a business and being willing to pay any price for it. If the fluctuations give me the price I'm looking for, I'll be ready.
Knowing this, there are option strategies I can use to my advantage to generate more cash flow while waiting for these stocks to decline. However, tell me in the comments section which of these three stocks, if you could choose just one, you would like to own at a lower price?
Is it Apple, CrowdStrike, or AbbVie? And most importantly, what price are you expecting?
What this channel has said about $CRWD
Mark Roussin, CPA has only this one call on this stock.