CRWD 业务基本面强劲，但当前估值（40 倍市销率、186 倍远期市盈率）过高；在价格改善前不会买入。
逐段跳播
目前在我的关注名单上的三只股票是Apple、CrowdStrike和AbbVie。但我目前不会买入其中任何一只。原因与它的业务活动无关，完全在于它的市场估值。
The three stocks currently on my watch list are Apple, CrowdStrike, and AbbVie. But I am not buying any of them at the moment. The reason has nothing to do with her business activities. It's all about its market valuations.
话虽如此，我们来看第二只股票CrowdStrike，它在交易所的代码是CRWD。就这家公司而言，我很喜欢它的成长故事。我对网络安全板块一直非常坦率，我说过它可能比人工智能更具吸引力、更有前景。
到目前为止，这一预测完全准确。网络安全是我认为未来数年仍将极其重要的结构性增长市场之一。每家公司都越来越依赖数字化。云计算的采用持续扩大。人工智能提高了生产率，但它也带来了新的网络安全风险。
Having said that, let's move on to the second stock, CrowdStrike, whose symbol on the stock exchange is CRWD. Now, as for this company, I love its growth story. I have been very frank about the cybersecurity sector, stating that it may be more attractive and promising than artificial intelligence.
So far, this prediction has been completely accurate. Cybersecurity is one of the structural growth markets that I believe will remain extremely important for years to come. Every company is becoming more reliant on digitalization.
The adoption of cloud computing continues to expand. Artificial intelligence increases productivity, but it also creates new cybersecurity risks.
就CrowdStrike而言，它打造了业内最强大的平台之一。Falcon平台让客户能够将多种安全产品整合到单一架构中。终端安全、身份、云、威胁情报等等。这家公司做得非常好。
As for CrowdStrike, it has built one of the most powerful platforms in the industry. The Falcon platform allows customers to integrate multiple security products into a single architecture.
Endpoint security, identity, cloud, threat intelligence, and more. The company is doing very well.
看这家公司上一个季度，你可以看到，CEO自己都这么说了。公司历史上最好的一个季度。这是George Kurtz的原话。年度经常性收入达到58亿。增长了25%。公司在本季度新增了创纪录的3.33亿美元净新增经常性收入。
净新增经常性收入增长加速了51%，CrowdStrike本季度产生了3.77亿美元的自由现金流。对这家公司来说，这些是出色的数字。
Looking at the company's last quarter, you can see, well, the CEO said so himself. The best quarter in the company's history. Those were the words of George Kurtz. Annual recurring revenues reached 5.8 billion.
That was a 25% increase. The company added a record $333 million in new net recurring revenue during the quarter. New net recurring revenue growth accelerated by 51%, and CrowdStrike generated $377 million in quarterly free cash flow. Those are exceptional figures for the company.
那么，问题出在哪里？再说一次，你已经知道了。是估值。不是公司的问题，是评级的问题。我为这家公司付的是什么价钱？
So, what's the problem? Again, you already know. It's the evaluation. It's not the company, it's the rating. What am I paying for this company?
CrowdStrike的股价在过去一年上涨了120%。但看看评级，它只有55的评级。最大的障碍再次是估值。那么，我们来看一看。
CrowdStrike shares rose by 120% over the past year. But look at the rating; it's only at a rating of 55. The biggest obstacle again is evaluation. So, let's take a look at that.
无论你从哪个估值角度看CrowdStrike，该股相对于其平均水平都很昂贵。而这些平均水平本身已经很高。该股的远期市盈率为186倍，企业价值与EBITDA之比为126倍，市销率为40倍。
从销售角度看是40倍。它是一只提供增长的股票，但其中很大一部分增长，甚至更多，已经被计入股价。
Regardless of the valuation angle from which you view CrowdStrike, the stocks are expensive compared to their averages. These averages are already high. The stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 186 times, an enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio of 126 times, and a price-to-sales ratio of 40 times. 40 times greater from a sales perspective.
It is a growth-providing stock, but much of that growth, and even more, has already been priced into the stock.
但回到Stock Investor网站，我们可以看到所有分析师给出的12个月平均目标价是234美元。他们的目标价实际上比今天的当前价格低约10%。
But going back to the Stock Investor website, we can see that the average 12-month target price across all analysts is $234. Their target price is actually about 10% lower than today's current price.
现在，CrowdStrike值一个价格溢价。我毫不讳言这一点。这家公司拥有高经常性收入、出色的利润率、强大的管理团队、强劲的长期增长，以及网络安全领域巨大的机会。它的盈利能力正在改善，其平台的经济性毋庸置疑。
Now, CrowdStrike is worth a price premium. I have no problem saying that. The company boasts high recurring revenues, excellent profit margins, a strong management team, strong secular growth, and tremendous opportunity in the cybersecurity field.
It is seeing improved profitability, and the economics of its platform are beyond question.
高经常性收入、出色的利润率、强大的管理团队、强劲的长期增长，以及网络安全领域巨大的机会。它的盈利能力正在改善，其平台的经济性毋庸置疑。
high recurring revenues, excellent profit margins , a strong management team , strong secular growth, and tremendous opportunity in the cybersecurity field. It is seeing improved profitability, and the economics of its platform are beyond question .
但问题不是CrowdStrike是否值这个价格溢价？很明显它配得上，问题是这个溢价是多少？在40倍销售额的估值下，很多事情，我是说很多事情，都必须完美无缺。
But the question isn't whether CrowdStrike is worth the price premium? It is clear that she deserves it, but the question is how much is this bonus? When evaluating 40 times revenue, a lot, and I mean a lot, has to go perfectly.
在40倍销售额的估值下，很多事情，我是说很多事情，都必须完美无缺。以下是以极端倍数交易的股票让我害怕的地方。一家公司不一定非要变差，股价才会暴跌。它只要变得稍微不那么完美就行。
想象一下CrowdStrike未来增长25%。华尔街预期未来会有巨大的增长。如果这种增长最终变成20%，再往后变成18%，会怎样？它仍然是一家优秀的公司，它仍在增长，它仍在产生大量现金，但投资者可能会认定，我们不再为它支付40倍销售额。
突然间你就遇到了所谓的估值压缩。这是投资中最大的风险之一，这就是为什么估值很重要。
When evaluating 40 times revenue , a lot, and I mean a lot, has to go perfectly. Here's what scares me about stocks that trade at extreme multiples. A company doesn't necessarily have to become bad for a stock to crash.
It can simply become a little less perfect. Imagine that CrowdStrike grows by 25% in the future. Wall Street expects tremendous growth in the future. What happens if this growth eventually becomes 20%, and then 18% down the road?
It is still an excellent company, it is still growing, and it is still generating a lot of cash, but investors may decide that we are no longer paying 40 times sales for this. Suddenly you get what is called a compression of complications.
This is one of the biggest risks in investing, and that's why valuation matters.
如果CrowdStrike明天因纳斯达克的抛售而大幅下跌，但基本面故事依然完好，那会引起我的注意，因为我不需要这家公司变得更好。这不是我在寻找的。我对这家公司已经很满意了。我只需要价格变得更好。
If CrowdStrike drops significantly tomorrow due to selling on the Nasdaq, but the underlying story remains intact, that catches my attention because I don't need the company to improve.
This is not what I'm looking for. I am already impressed with the company. I just need the price to improve.
CrowdStrike是一家高增长的网络安全公司。
CrowdStrike is a high- growth cybersecurity company.
在我看来，CrowdStrike极其昂贵。
"Crowd Strike" is extremely expensive in my opinion.
当我看这三家公司——Apple、CrowdStrike和AbbVie时，我整体上很喜欢它们做的事，但我不喜欢它们当前的评级。
When I look at these three companies, Apple, CrowdStrike and AbbVie, I love their work in its entirety, but I don't like their current ratings.
CrowdStrike是一个顶尖的网络安全平台，但它的远期市盈率是185倍，远期市销率是40倍？那么，这是一个非常高的预期。
CrowdStrike is an elite cybersecurity platform, but its futures price-to-earnings ratio is 185 times, and its futures price-to- sales ratio is 40 times? Well, that's a very high expectation.
我很喜欢 CrowdStrike。但我现在不会买入。因为想拥有一家企业，和愿意为它支付任何价格，是两回事。如果波动能给我带来我想要的价位，我就会准备好。
I love CrowdStrike. But I won't buy it now. Because there is a difference between wanting to own a business and being willing to pay any price for it. If the fluctuations give me the price I'm looking for, I'll be ready.
明白了这一点，我就可以利用一些期权策略，在等待这些股票下跌的过程中为自己创造更多现金流。不过，请在评论区告诉我，这三只股票中，如果只能选一只，你希望以更低的价格拥有哪一只？是 Apple、CrowdStrike，还是 AbbVie？最重要的是，你期待的价格是多少？
Knowing this, there are option strategies I can use to my advantage to generate more cash flow while waiting for these stocks to decline. However, tell me in the comments section which of these three stocks, if you could choose just one, you would like to own at a lower price?
Is it Apple, CrowdStrike, or AbbVie? And most importantly, what price are you expecting?
这个频道对 $CRWD 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。