GDX has likely topped in a five-wave structure; a deep wave two pullback is possible but not probable, and the bias is bearish.

This is GDX on the bigger degree. I mean clearly we have more than enough waves in place right now for this to have considered topped in a five-wave structure. Now, can that five-wave structure be a C wave of this alt B wave?

Absolutely and it could and point us down it. But I got to tell you it's possible. Just don't think it's probable because in order for this to be a five-wave C wave you have to view this as the A wave bottom here, then you have an A, very unusual B wave and then a C wave rally?

I mean, you [snorts] know, we see expanded flats, you know, every now and then. But I got to tell you this one would be extraordinarily unusual. For that reason I'm I'm viewing this as wave one of wave five.

We Yes, we could see a deep wave two believe it or not because there are quite a number of individual mining stocks that are strongly suggestive of those in lower lows. Um, I don't think GDX is necessarily um, strongly suggestive of that.

Like I said, you could see a deep wave two but I I'm I'm not strongly indicative um, of uh, I don't think it's strongly indicative of of a uh, of anything more than just a deep wave two.

Okay? But there are two reasons that I actually sold a lot more of the individual stocks than I was intending initially. First, so many of them had 50% rallies or more. And second, the potential of a deep wave two.

So for that I have lightened my load, added some some uh, some um, some uh, protective puts for the other stuff. Uh, can this still push a little higher? Of course it can. But to be honest, this is really looking quite complete.

1 2 3 4 5. This is looking quite complete here uh, for a five-wave structure ball.

Small degree. It looks like five waves, but I got to tell you we haven't broken any support. I'd like to get below the 236 retracement here. You know what? I'm actually going to go lower on this because of the potential for a deep wave two.

But right now, you got to break down below the 236 and then I'm going to be looking to see how this develops.

Okay? We can get a deep wave two. Just realize that. We can. I'm not going to disregard that because there are a number of stocks, individual stocks that would look like they could get lower lows and that could pull GDX down a little further.