GDX — All updates

I remain very optimistic about gold, and not just physical gold, but gold mining companies, which leads us to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, code “GDX”.

This is interesting because gold mining companies were actually one of the strongest sectors of the market in August. GDX made gains of around 30 percent or more in August, but we have seen a decline since then .

"GDX" fell in recent days by 4% at the end of August, by another 1.5% on the last day of August , and by about 4% on the first of September.

And again, just last week, I was telling you guys, short the miners. The miners are at a Fibonacci retrace 618, the GDX.

And my thesis was that gold miners were seeing a lot of retail investment because you get a bigger bang for your buck. When gold goes up 1%, the miners usually go up 2%. And ultimately, I thought those got ahead of themselves.

This is GDX on the bigger degree. I mean clearly we have more than enough waves in place right now for this to have considered topped in a five-wave structure. Now, can that five-wave structure be a C wave of this alt B wave?

Absolutely and it could and point us down it. But I got to tell you it's possible. Just don't think it's probable because in order for this to be a five-wave C wave you have to view this as the A wave bottom here, then you have an A, very unusual B wave and then a C wave rally?

I mean, you [snorts] know, we see expanded flats, you know, every now and then. But I got to tell you this one would be extraordinarily unusual. For that reason I'm I'm viewing this as wave one of wave five.

We Yes, we could see a deep wave two believe it or not because there are quite a number of individual mining stocks that are strongly suggestive of those in lower lows. Um, I don't think GDX is necessarily um, strongly suggestive of that.

Like I said, you could see a deep wave two but I I'm I'm not strongly indicative um, of uh, I don't think it's strongly indicative of of a uh, of anything more than just a deep wave two.

So, GDX, uh, I talked about gold feeling like it's powering out here. What if I wanted to put on a a a lowrisk trade to the downside over the next little while? Say I thought that um we were going to see a down tick and I'm looking at this chart and I'm saying, okay, you know, the stock is trading at $104.

You can see this over here on the on the left on Mumu. Uh, the prices are here. Um, what if what if I wanted to target a level down here, $88 or $90. What if I expected it to pull back to this kind of centralized centralized area right here where we saw a cluster of data on the way up these gaps kind of paused here.

So I think this would be natural for this to come back down and we might see this over the next couple of weeks.