GOOGL faces short-term downside risk to ~$150 from potential data center write-offs, despite a positive long-term outlook relative to bonds.

He released his 13F model, and he added another 45% to his Google stake. So, he's filling his portfolio with Class A Google shares. It's now the fourth largest investment in his portfolio.

That's a lot of pressure, really, and I think Greg is trying to invest money somewhere he's very confident is in a good position. And why not Google? They've done an amazing job.

my team got me into the Google investment and I was okay with it, 'Okay, we're investing in this, but I want to know what the trigger is in this tech company that will make us exit.

What change in the story will make us walk out of this deal because I know the story is going to change. That's what technology does. It destroys your existing products that make all your money and creates something better in the future, or you're doomed. That's technology.'

So, they said, 'Okay,' Travis, Austin, and Hunter sat down and said, 'Okay, the trigger to exit will be when Google's search numbers start to decline because AI isn't attracting people to Google Search.

The AI tool will take you directly to the site you want to go to. You don't need Google Search. You don't need that blue line, and therefore you're contributing to Google's search ad revenue.'

So, that was the trigger. We're going our way, Google is doing well, and then Apple announces that search Google was having problems. They weren't seeing the numbers we needed.

We made the decision based on that. And within two years, Google's value doubled.

And of course, it turned out that shortly after Apple's announcement, Google's Gemini finally started working, and they found a way to integrate Google Search with Gemini. It was genius, and they soared to the top.

That last round of acquisitions was thoroughly valued. Google, with all the expectations that the $100 billion they're putting into their data centers won't be obsolete by the time they're operational, and that they won't have to write off $100 billion of $50 billion in profits and see their profits turn into losses, which I see as very likely.

I think Greg is looking long-term. We'll buy; and that's certainly going to be a winning option in the long run. But in the meantime, I'd be genuinely surprised if we didn't see Google stock return to around $150 at some point.

It's more about whether what I invest my money in will reasonably, even modestly, outperform U.S. Treasury bonds over a medium- to long-term period. It's not even like Berkshire trying to find the next big deal that will yield 100 times the return.

It's simply this: Will this yield more than 4% per annum? If so, let's say because I think the size of the investment position in Google is now around 30 billion. Would putting 30 billion dollars in Google be slightly better in the long run than putting it in U.S. Treasury bonds?

I don't know the answer to that, but I feel like that's the equation.

because I think the size of the investment position in Google is now around 30 billion. Would putting 30 billion dollars in Google be slightly better in the long run than putting it in U.S. Treasury bonds ?

I don't know the answer to that, but I feel like that's the equation.

Yes, I think it's a very good bet, and I think they believe they're in a different position than fund managers. They're in a position where investors aren't bothered if Google's value drops by half, given that they have to write all those write-downs on their books and the stock falls like a stone, which would bother pension fund managers in a typical hedge fund to the point where they pull money out of you.

So, I completely understand Greg's point of view, and it's almost certain to outperform the Treasury bonds.

In my opinion, this is definitely not a Warren Buffett-style buy. I've never seen Buffett spend money like that on something that isn't discounted.

I mean, Google is at a five or four level right now. Yes. Isn't it? Buying Google now is like buying an expensive apartment building. Will you make money from it? Absolutely. Yes, you'll do well.

It'll be good. It's a good building in a great location. But it's not the same as buying the same building at an 11% yield where your cash flow is 11% of your investment. No, you don't get that deal with Google at all.

And I think this Google buy has two aspects. It will outperform Treasuries, and it will help Berkshire Hathaway Keeping pace with the changing winds in the AI sector.

I remember him telling me a story about how he traded until he reached a negative base cost in Google shares. He says they are free shares.