High yields pressure IWM due to unprofitable constituents relying on debt; technicals indicate a likely bounce.
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One on the IWM. All right. Now, this is the Russell 2000 index. We used to cover this every day. Sometimes it's just not as as robustly moving. However, in this scenario with high yields, about 64% of the stocks contained in this 2000 stock index are not profitable and rely heavily upon borrowing money to pay out and and fund their ventures to keep their business doors open.
So, higher interest rates are going to put pressure on the majority of stocks here in the IWM.
Now, what do we see here on this chart? Technically, we've cleanly been inside a parallel channel ever since back here, the April 2025 lows. Only hit the bottom range of this parallel twice.
Now, we're making a beline straight down to it. And you can see that level right here around 27452. All right. Now, what happens if I take up a fib retrace from this most recent move, the March 30th low on uh this year, 2026.
Look what stacks right in this range, guys. Even if we get a little pierce of the bottom of this parallel, we have 27194, the 50% fib retrace that also corresponds with the pivot high back here in January of this year.
Considering that we're coming straight down into it, guys, that tells me IWM likely is getting ready for a bounce. Throw in another factor. Look at the RSI down here near 31.05.
Anything under 30 is considered oversold in the near term. So, we have a uh yield um uh heavy stressed uh index right here with the IWM and it's coming down with the yields going up getting to a place of potential support.
That implies what I'm seeing that the 10-year yield likely can start pulling back in the near term having pierced that 2007 high. And if it does, we likely will see some bounces in the IWM, bounces in the SMH, bounces in the uh NASDAQ and so forth.
What this channel has said about $IWM
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