高收益率对 IWM 构成压力，因其成分股中不盈利的公司依赖债务，技术面显示可能出现反弹。
逐段跳播
来看IWM。好，这是罗素2000指数。我们过去每天都跟踪它。有时候它的走势就是没那么强劲。不过在当前高收益率的背景下，这个由2000只股票构成的指数中约有64%的公司并不盈利，它们严重依赖借债来支付和为其业务提供资金，以维持经营。
因此，更高的利率将对IWM中的大多数股票构成压力。
One on the IWM. All right. Now, this is the Russell 2000 index. We used to cover this every day. Sometimes it's just not as as robustly moving. However, in this scenario with high yields, about 64% of the stocks contained in this 2000 stock index are not profitable and rely heavily upon borrowing money to pay out and and fund their ventures to keep their business doors open.
So, higher interest rates are going to put pressure on the majority of stocks here in the IWM.
那么，我们在这张图上看到了什么？从技术面看，自2025年4月的低点以来，我们一直干净地处在一个平行通道内。只触及过这个平行通道的下沿两次。现在，我们正径直向下朝它跌去。你可以看到那个水平就在27452附近。
好，那么如果我从最近这一波走势、也就是今年2026年3月30日的低点拉一个斐波那契回撤，会发生什么？看看这个区间里叠加了什么，各位。即使我们略微刺穿这个平行通道的下沿，我们还有27194，即50%斐波那契回撤位，它同时也对应着今年1月的枢轴高点。
考虑到我们是径直跌向它，各位，这告诉我IWM很可能正准备反弹。再加上另一个因素。看看下方的RSI，接近31.05。任何低于30的读数在短期内都被视为超卖。所以，我们这里有一个收益率高企、压力沉重的指数，也就是IWM，它随着收益率上升而下跌，正来到一个潜在支撑的位置。
这暗示我所看到的是，10年期收益率在刺穿2007年高点后，短期内很可能开始回落。如果它真的回落，我们很可能会看到IWM出现一些反弹，SMH出现反弹，纳斯达克等等也出现反弹。
Now, what do we see here on this chart? Technically, we've cleanly been inside a parallel channel ever since back here, the April 2025 lows. Only hit the bottom range of this parallel twice.
Now, we're making a beline straight down to it. And you can see that level right here around 27452. All right. Now, what happens if I take up a fib retrace from this most recent move, the March 30th low on uh this year, 2026.
Look what stacks right in this range, guys. Even if we get a little pierce of the bottom of this parallel, we have 27194, the 50% fib retrace that also corresponds with the pivot high back here in January of this year.
Considering that we're coming straight down into it, guys, that tells me IWM likely is getting ready for a bounce. Throw in another factor. Look at the RSI down here near 31.05.
Anything under 30 is considered oversold in the near term. So, we have a uh yield um uh heavy stressed uh index right here with the IWM and it's coming down with the yields going up getting to a place of potential support.
That implies what I'm seeing that the 10-year yield likely can start pulling back in the near term having pierced that 2007 high. And if it does, we likely will see some bounces in the IWM, bounces in the SMH, bounces in the uh NASDAQ and so forth.
这个频道对 $IWM 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。