KDP's planned spin-off of coffee brands creates uncertainty; speaker prefers waiting to evaluate post-split valuation rather than buying now.
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It's the beverage giant, Keurig Dr Pepper, stock symbol KDP, that has seen another massive surge. Well, as we say, Keurig Dr Pepper, KDP. This saw another massive increase by Cohen of more than 1300% in his stake, acquiring an estimated $384 million, bringing his total stake in the company to more than $457 million.
If we are looking for a good reason to invest in this stock, the first thing that comes to mind is the sharp drop in the stock price we have seen over the past decade, which is attributed to the owner of some of the most famous beverage brands in the world, including not only Dr Pepper, or even the Keurig coffee brewing system and K-Cup capsules, which are found in tens of millions of homes these days, as well as other well-known brands such as Snapple, Canada Dry, A& W, and others.
Historically, this decline has led to strong stock performance over the years, but recently, the stock has recorded a decline over the past five years. However, due to the growth in its financial data, the stock's value has decreased significantly, becoming much cheaper than its average over the past five years, and even much cheaper than the sector average. The dividend yield also rose to nearly 3%.
One of the factors that will drive tremendous growth for the company this year is its massive $18 billion acquisition of Dutch coffee giant JDE Peet's, known for its Peet's Coffee brand.
For example, consolidated sales in the last quarter rose by nearly 75% year-over-year, while earnings per share jumped by more than double, and are expected to continue growing.
So, at first glance, it looks like you own a low-priced stock, and a huge new acquisition is providing much-needed growth, which is rare in similar companies. You won't see such growth rates in a company like this.
In addition, you will receive good dividends added to this deal.
However, the whole situation starts to get a little, or rather too complicated in my opinion, because KDP’s plan is not just to acquire Peet’s Coffee, but aims to bring all its coffee brands together as one unit and then separate them into a completely independent company, while keeping the old beverage unit as an independent company.
This is not entirely what I disagree with. Sometimes, a company's focus on a specific sector, rather than a large sector, can lead to improved operational performance later on, because it allows for better focus on a specific market or region.
But, in my personal opinion, this is a strategy I don't much prefer in the food and beverage sector, which I see as sufficiently focused. I don't think there is a need for further expansion.
When I invest in this type of company, I prefer to own the larger entity as a whole, so that it is more like a "too big to go bankrupt" company, and can easily acquire and absorb smaller competitors, with plenty of cash flow to invest in new brands, new strategies, new product launches, and so on.
As for KDP, I will have to wait and see how these changes will ultimately affect it, and how the company’s current valuation will be calculated after excluding the massive growth resulting from the acquisition.
Then I will have to look at two separate stocks and evaluate them differently. So, it's a bit confusing for me. I don't care much about it. I am satisfied with PepsiCo. For this reason, I will place them in a lower rank than Snow Corporation.
I would put them in fourth place, because, as I said, I will wait and see how things go with KDP first, and then reassess them. That's something I'll look into later. I'm not interested in him right now. That's my opinion.
What this channel has said about $KDP
Ale's World of Stocks has only this one call on this stock.