KDP计划分拆咖啡品牌带来不确定性,相比现在买入,更倾向于等待分拆后估值明朗再作评估。
逐段跳播
饮料巨头 Keurig Dr Pepper,股票代码 KDP,又出现了一次大幅增持。正如我们所说,Keurig Dr Pepper,KDP。Cohen 又进行了一次大幅增持,持股增加超过 1300%,买入约 3.84 亿美元,使其在该公司的总持股超过 4.57 亿美元。
It's the beverage giant, Keurig Dr Pepper, stock symbol KDP, that has seen another massive surge. Well, as we say, Keurig Dr Pepper, KDP. This saw another massive increase by Cohen of more than 1300% in his stake, acquiring an estimated $384 million, bringing his total stake in the company to more than $457 million.
如果我们要为投资这只股票寻找一个充分理由,首先想到的是过去十年我们看到的股价大幅下跌,而这家公司拥有一些全球最著名的饮料品牌,不仅包括 Dr Pepper,甚至还包括如今数千万家庭中都能见到的 Keurig 咖啡冲泡系统和 K-Cup 胶囊,以及 Snapple、Canada Dry、A&W 等其他知名品牌。
If we are looking for a good reason to invest in this stock, the first thing that comes to mind is the sharp drop in the stock price we have seen over the past decade, which is attributed to the owner of some of the most famous beverage brands in the world, including not only Dr Pepper, or even the Keurig coffee brewing system and K-Cup capsules, which are found in tens of millions of homes these days, as well as other well-known brands such as Snapple, Canada Dry, A& W, and others.
从历史上看,这种下跌带来了多年来强劲的股价表现,但最近,该股在过去五年里录得下跌。然而,由于其财务数据的增长,该股价值已大幅下降,变得比过去五年的平均水平便宜得多,甚至比行业平均水平也便宜得多。股息率也升至近 3%。
Historically, this decline has led to strong stock performance over the years, but recently, the stock has recorded a decline over the past five years. However, due to the growth in its financial data, the stock's value has decreased significantly, becoming much cheaper than its average over the past five years, and even much cheaper than the sector average. The dividend yield also rose to nearly 3%.
今年将推动该公司实现巨大增长的因素之一,是它以180亿美元巨额收购荷兰咖啡巨头JDE Peet's,后者以旗下Peet's Coffee品牌闻名。例如,上一季度合并销售额同比增长近75%,而每股收益增长了一倍多,并且预计将继续增长。
所以,乍看之下,你持有的似乎是一只低价股,而一笔庞大的新收购正在提供急需的增长,这在同类公司中很罕见。在这样的公司身上,你不会看到这样的增长率。此外,在这笔交易之上,你还能获得不错的股息。
One of the factors that will drive tremendous growth for the company this year is its massive $18 billion acquisition of Dutch coffee giant JDE Peet's, known for its Peet's Coffee brand.
For example, consolidated sales in the last quarter rose by nearly 75% year-over-year, while earnings per share jumped by more than double, and are expected to continue growing.
So, at first glance, it looks like you own a low-priced stock, and a huge new acquisition is providing much-needed growth, which is rare in similar companies. You won't see such growth rates in a company like this.
In addition, you will receive good dividends added to this deal.
然而,在我看来,整个局面开始变得有点,或者说是过于复杂了,因为KDP的计划不只是收购Peet's Coffee,而是打算把旗下所有咖啡品牌整合为一个业务单元,然后将其分拆成一家完全独立的公司,同时把原有的饮料业务保留为一家独立公司。
这并不完全是我所不认同的。有时,一家公司专注于某个特定板块,而不是一个大板块,反而能在日后带来运营表现的改善,因为这能让它更好地聚焦于某个特定市场或地区。但就我个人观点而言,在食品饮料板块,我不太喜欢这种策略,我认为这个板块已经足够聚焦了。
我不认为有进一步扩张的必要。当我投资这类公司时,我更愿意整体持有那个更大的实体,这样它更像是一家“大到不能倒”的公司,能够轻松收购并吸收规模较小的竞争对手,并拥有充裕的现金流去投资新品牌、新策略、新产品发布等等。
However, the whole situation starts to get a little, or rather too complicated in my opinion, because KDP’s plan is not just to acquire Peet’s Coffee, but aims to bring all its coffee brands together as one unit and then separate them into a completely independent company, while keeping the old beverage unit as an independent company.
This is not entirely what I disagree with. Sometimes, a company's focus on a specific sector, rather than a large sector, can lead to improved operational performance later on, because it allows for better focus on a specific market or region.
But, in my personal opinion, this is a strategy I don't much prefer in the food and beverage sector, which I see as sufficiently focused. I don't think there is a need for further expansion.
When I invest in this type of company, I prefer to own the larger entity as a whole, so that it is more like a "too big to go bankrupt" company, and can easily acquire and absorb smaller competitors, with plenty of cash flow to invest in new brands, new strategies, new product launches, and so on.
至于KDP,我得先观望这些变化最终会如何影响它,以及在剔除收购带来的巨大增长之后,该公司的当前估值将如何计算。然后我还得分别看待两只独立的股票,对它们进行不同的评估。所以,这对我来说有点令人困惑。
我不太在意它。我对百事公司感到满意。因此,我会把它们排在Snow Corporation之后。我会把它们排在第四位,因为正如我所说,我会先观望KDP的情况如何发展,然后再重新评估它们。
这是我以后会去研究的事。我现在对他不感兴趣。这就是我的看法。
As for KDP, I will have to wait and see how these changes will ultimately affect it, and how the company’s current valuation will be calculated after excluding the massive growth resulting from the acquisition.
Then I will have to look at two separate stocks and evaluate them differently. So, it's a bit confusing for me. I don't care much about it. I am satisfied with PepsiCo. For this reason, I will place them in a lower rank than Snow Corporation.
I would put them in fourth place, because, as I said, I will wait and see how things go with KDP first, and then reassess them. That's something I'll look into later. I'm not interested in him right now. That's my opinion.
这个频道对 $KDP 的历次判断
Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。