LCID is not a buy yet due to significant financial losses and negative free cash flow projections despite strong technology.
Jump to any passage
I have great news for Lucid stock investors: the company has entered into a major partnership with European passenger transport platform Bolt to deploy at least 25,000 self-driving vehicles in major European cities .
Therefore, this positive development led to a significant rise in Lucid's shares. It rose by more than 9% during the day. I wanted to discuss the details and see if this finally made Lucid stock a buying opportunity.
We can see the developments here, as the company's stock price jumped after the electric car company signed a major partnership with the European passenger transport platform " Bolt".
This comes after Lucid signed a major deal with Uber to deploy some of its vehicles within Uber's fleet. So, this is the second major deal that Lucid has signed with partners to deploy self-driving vehicles.
Interestingly, I think Lucid is in a great position to capture market share in this category, because its technology is among the best in its class when we talk about efficiency, or miles per charge or per kilowatt-hour.
Lucid has some of the best technologies. If you compare, for example, the Lucid Gravity SUV to the Cadillac IQ ( Electric Escalade), and look at the number of miles these vehicles travel, you will find that you get more miles in the Lucid Gravity compared to the Cadillac IQ, even though the battery size is much smaller in the Lucid Gravity.
This simply points to the technological advantage that Lucid has over its competitors in exploiting kilowatt-hours.
Therefore, it does not surprise me that Lucid is attracting the attention of these companies as a result of its effective technology. They also licensed their technology to companies like Aston Martin for various other reasons .
So, they really have excellent technology , and in my opinion, they have the best- looking electric cars on the market. It's simply a matter of getting this technology to enough people so that the company can achieve self-sustainability.
Currently, they are not sustainable because they founded the company on expectations of selling thousands more cars.
Currently, they sell fewer than 20,000 electric cars annually, but the basis of the business was built on a potential market size of around 100,000 cars.
So, they have the manufacturing and expenditure base for a much larger annual sales volume , but their actual sales are much lower .
Therefore, deals like Lucid's partnership with electric vehicle partners are an opportunity for Lucid to increase its overall revenue, which will allow it to scale up the business more quickly and stop losing so much money in net profits.
They are losing a lot of money in net profits for a company with a market capitalization of around 1.7 billion. I estimate that the company will achieve a negative free cash flow of $4 billion this year, a negative $2.7 billion in 2027, a negative $1.5 billion in 2028, and a negative $460 million in 2029, before finally reaching the breakeven point in 2030 in terms of free cash flow.
Thus, my estimates for the company's free cash flow remain significantly negative over the next few years, but deals like this could be huge for the company in the medium term.
Now, does this make it a buying opportunity? I don't think so. not yet.
I am evaluating the work. It should be worth about $70 per share. It is currently trading at $4.28. So, I still think it's too early for " Lucid".
I support the company again. I think it's one of the most attractive electric cars. I hope to buy one, but my hesitation stems from the nature of the work, isn't that right? They are losing a lot of money.
I don't want to buy an electric car that is no longer supported by a company if that company goes bankrupt. I don't want to be in the position of Fisker customers who now own cars that are neither maintained nor supported.
Therefore, they can do a lot simply by improving business sustainability. After that, customers who were hesitant to buy due to the company's instability can return to the market and perhaps buy their excellent cars, which is actually true when compared competitively to other electric vehicles in the same price range .
Watchpoints
What this channel has said about $LCID
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has only this one call on this stock.