尽管技术实力强劲，但由于巨额财务亏损以及自由现金流预计为负，LCID 目前尚不具备买入条件。
逐段跳播
我有一个对 Lucid 股票投资者来说的好消息：该公司已与欧洲客运平台 Bolt 达成一项重大合作，将在欧洲主要城市部署至少 25,000 辆自动驾驶汽车。
I have great news for Lucid stock investors: the company has entered into a major partnership with European passenger transport platform Bolt to deploy at least 25,000 self-driving vehicles in major European cities .
因此，这一积极进展带动 Lucid 股价大幅上涨，当日涨幅超过 9%。我想讨论一下其中的细节，看看这是否终于让 Lucid 股票成为一个买入机会。
Therefore, this positive development led to a significant rise in Lucid's shares. It rose by more than 9% during the day. I wanted to discuss the details and see if this finally made Lucid stock a buying opportunity.
我们可以在这里看到相关进展：在这家电动汽车公司与欧洲客运平台 Bolt 签署一项重大合作后，其股价出现跳涨。此前 Lucid 已与 Uber 签署一项重大协议，将其部分车辆部署到 Uber 的车队中。
所以，这是 Lucid 与合作伙伴签署的、旨在部署自动驾驶汽车的第二项重大协议。
We can see the developments here, as the company's stock price jumped after the electric car company signed a major partnership with the European passenger transport platform " Bolt".
This comes after Lucid signed a major deal with Uber to deploy some of its vehicles within Uber's fleet. So, this is the second major deal that Lucid has signed with partners to deploy self-driving vehicles.
有意思的是，我认为 Lucid 在抢占这一品类的市场份额方面处于非常有利的位置，因为当我们谈到效率，也就是每度电或每千瓦时能行驶多少英里时，它的技术在同级别中属于最好的之一。
Interestingly, I think Lucid is in a great position to capture market share in this category, because its technology is among the best in its class when we talk about efficiency, or miles per charge or per kilowatt-hour.
Lucid 拥有一些最好的技术。比如，如果你把 Lucid Gravity SUV 与 Cadillac IQ（电动 Escalade）作比较，看看这些车辆的续航里程，你会发现 Lucid Gravity 的续航里程比 Cadillac IQ 更多，尽管 Lucid Gravity 的电池容量要小得多。
Lucid has some of the best technologies. If you compare, for example, the Lucid Gravity SUV to the Cadillac IQ ( Electric Escalade), and look at the number of miles these vehicles travel, you will find that you get more miles in the Lucid Gravity compared to the Cadillac IQ, even though the battery size is much smaller in the Lucid Gravity.
这恰恰说明 Lucid 在利用千瓦时方面相对于竞争对手拥有技术优势。
This simply points to the technological advantage that Lucid has over its competitors in exploiting kilowatt-hours.
因此，Lucid 凭借其有效的技术吸引这些公司的关注，我并不感到意外。他们还出于各种其他原因，将技术授权给 Aston Martin 等公司。
Therefore, it does not surprise me that Lucid is attracting the attention of these companies as a result of its effective technology. They also licensed their technology to companies like Aston Martin for various other reasons .
所以，他们确实拥有出色的技术，而且在我看来，他们拥有市场上最好看的电动汽车。问题只在于如何把这项技术带给足够多的人，让公司能够实现自我可持续。
So, they really have excellent technology , and in my opinion, they have the best- looking electric cars on the market. It's simply a matter of getting this technology to enough people so that the company can achieve self-sustainability.
目前他们尚不可持续，因为他们创立公司时预期的是多卖出数千辆汽车。
Currently, they are not sustainable because they founded the company on expectations of selling thousands more cars.
目前他们每年售出不到 20,000 辆电动汽车，但其业务基础是建立在约 100,000 辆的潜在市场规模之上的。
Currently, they sell fewer than 20,000 electric cars annually, but the basis of the business was built on a potential market size of around 100,000 cars.
所以，他们拥有支撑大得多的年销量的制造和支出基础，但实际销量却低得多。
So, they have the manufacturing and expenditure base for a much larger annual sales volume , but their actual sales are much lower .
因此，像 Lucid 与电动汽车合作伙伴达成的这类协议，是 Lucid 提高整体收入的机会，这将使其能够更快地扩大业务规模，并停止在净利润上亏损这么多钱。
Therefore, deals like Lucid's partnership with electric vehicle partners are an opportunity for Lucid to increase its overall revenue, which will allow it to scale up the business more quickly and stop losing so much money in net profits.
对于一家市值约 17 亿美元的公司来说，他们在净利润上亏损了很多钱。我估计该公司今年将实现 40 亿美元的自由现金流负值，2027 年为负 27 亿美元，2028 年为负 15 亿美元，2029 年为负 4.6 亿美元，最终在 2030 年自由现金流方面达到盈亏平衡点。
They are losing a lot of money in net profits for a company with a market capitalization of around 1.7 billion. I estimate that the company will achieve a negative free cash flow of $4 billion this year, a negative $2.7 billion in 2027, a negative $1.5 billion in 2028, and a negative $460 million in 2029, before finally reaching the breakeven point in 2030 in terms of free cash flow.
因此，我对该公司自由现金流的估计在未来几年仍将显著为负，但像这样的协议在中期内可能对公司意义重大。那么，这是否让它成为一个买入机会？我不这么认为，还不是时候。
Thus, my estimates for the company's free cash flow remain significantly negative over the next few years, but deals like this could be huge for the company in the medium term.
Now, does this make it a buying opportunity? I don't think so. not yet.
我正在评估这项工作。它应该值每股约 70 美元。目前它的交易价格是 4.28 美元。所以，我仍然认为对 Lucid 来说还为时过早。
I am evaluating the work. It should be worth about $70 per share. It is currently trading at $4.28. So, I still think it's too early for " Lucid".
我再次支持这家公司。我认为它是最有吸引力的电动车之一。我希望买一辆，但我的犹豫源于这项工作的性质，不是吗？他们在亏很多钱。
I support the company again. I think it's one of the most attractive electric cars. I hope to buy one, but my hesitation stems from the nature of the work, isn't that right? They are losing a lot of money.
如果一家公司破产，我不想买一辆不再受该公司支持的电动车。我不想落到 Fisker 客户那样的处境，他们现在拥有的车既没有维护也没有支持。
I don't want to buy an electric car that is no longer supported by a company if that company goes bankrupt. I don't want to be in the position of Fisker customers who now own cars that are neither maintained nor supported.
因此，仅仅通过改善业务的可持续性，他们就能做很多事。之后，那些因公司不稳定而犹豫购买的客户可以重返市场，或许会买他们出色的车，与同价位区间的其他电动车相比，这确实是事实。
Therefore, they can do a lot simply by improving business sustainability. After that, customers who were hesitant to buy due to the company's instability can return to the market and perhaps buy their excellent cars, which is actually true when compared competitively to other electric vehicles in the same price range .
观察点
这个频道对 $LCID 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。