Lyft is a value play with strong growth and optionality, including potential acquisition, making it a buy.
Jump to any passage
Another stock that may be a little bit overlooked is Lyft. Uber is a stock that I own, but Lyft is the real value play in ride sharing today. $6.4 billion market cap, but look at this, the enterprise value just $5.8 billion because they have net cash on the balance sheet.
That means they can buy back stock if they want, they can pay down their debt, they can go out and make and make acquisitions, which they've done with companies like FreeNow over the past year or so, and the valuation is absolutely crazy.
0.9 enterprise value to sales, and your price to free cash flow on a trailing basis is under six. On a forward basis, also about 5.5.
Uber is a stock that I own, but Lyft is the real value play in ride sharing today. Now, the impressive thing is, despite being the number two player in the space, Lyft is compounding their bookings and the number of riders that they have.
These are the key performance indicators I'm going to look at first. The bookings grown at a compound annual growth rate of 16% since the end of 2022. Number of riders grown about 12%.
And you can see that's ticked up a little bit recently, now over 30 million active riders, and their gross bookings over the trailing 12 months about $20 billion. That's going to be basically the money that's coming into the system.
That's not all going to be what they're recognizing as revenue, cuz the revenue is just going to be the portion that they ultimately keep. But, let's look at revenue and then also look at free cash flow.
Revenue growth over this time, 18% compound annual growth rate. Free cash flow was actually negative in 2024, has now $1.1 billion. So, again, for a company with a enterprise value of under $6 billion generating $1.1 billion worth of free cash flow, this is a profitable business.
There's a lot of optionality for Lyft. They're getting into autonomous vehicles. They have a partnership with Waymo. They're building their depots, which is where they're you're basically going to be operating those autonomous vehicles.
That's under their Flexdrive subsidiary. So, that's an operation that they already have running. I think they're going to be able to expand that in the future. And they're just going to be that demand aggregator connecting riders with rides.
And the other option for management is just to simply sell the company. This could could ultimately be the end game for Lyft's investors. As everybody tries to figure out what's their business model going to be in autonomous vehicles, there's one company that has 30 million people already interacting with them on a regular basis.
That's Lyft. So, if you are Waymo, if you're Zoox, if you're DoorDash, this could be a really attractive asset trading for a really, really attractive multiple. So, don't discount that as a potential opportunity for Lyft long-term, but I think this has got growth.
It has expanding margins. The opportunity for multiple expansion is absolutely tremendous. And you have that opportunity to potentially buy back shares or even just get acquired by a bigger player looking to expand in ride-sharing. I think all these are great options for Lyft.
So, the stock four stocks that I talked about here today, Hims & Hers, Zeta Global, Lyft, and Owlet. Let me know which one of those you think has the highest potential. These four are all stocks that I own.
What this channel has said about $LYFT
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium has 2 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.