MCD is a top 10 favorite stock; fair value $330 implies 26% upside in 12-18 months due to tech-driven cost reductions and high margins, though facing headwinds from health trends and economy.
Jump to any passage
McDonald's is another of my favorite stocks at the moment. I ranked it among the top 10 stocks. I calculated a fair value for McDonald's stock at $330 per share. The current market price is $262.
This leaves it with a 26% rise over the next 12 to 18 months.
One of my favorite positive factors for McDonald's, which I think the market underestimates, is its technological innovation across multiple categories, which could benefit McDonald's in the short and long term.
Food delivery networks and the spread of this technology allow McDonald's to reach more consumers on more occasions. You no longer have to leave your home to eat McDonald's. In addition, the company benefits from improvements in automation and robotics.
The food delivery networks I mentioned no longer need humans to deliver them. Over the next five years, more and more of these deliveries will be carried out by robots, which will reduce the cost of servicing these customers.
In addition, McDonald's is integrating automated kiosks into its stores and locations. This reduces the need for cashiers and lowers labor costs at every McDonald's location. Collectively, these innovations are something McDonald's hasn't seen in its business for decades.
I am excited to see how the company will prove successful in integrating and using these new technologies in its operations.
The second positive factor is similar to the positive factor I highlighted with PepsiCo. Over the decades, McDonald's has learned how to deliver great value to customers at a relatively low cost.
This difference between the value you provide to customers and the cost of providing that value allows McDonald's to achieve some of the best margins in the restaurant industry.
And of course, in addition to the franchise business model, McDonald's achieves operating profit margins approaching 50%. These are the kinds of margins that, in fact, are very similar to the margins of software companies like Microsoft or even Apple.
I believe that McDonald's operating profit margin is actually higher than Apple's operating profit margin. Therefore, this is something I believe is an attractive feature in any business.
I'm not going to spend much time talking about the negative aspects of McDonald's because they are very similar to the negative aspects I talked about with PepsiCo. Weight loss treatments and healthy options demanded by consumers have led to a decline in McDonald's sales, something that will be harder for McDonald's to recover from than for PepsiCo.
Because the actual products that PepsiCo sells are less important to the company's success than the actual products that McDonald's sells. The company has worked for decades to build a supply chain for specific products it sells, and if it shifts its focus away from that, it could be more difficult.
Don't get me wrong, it will also be difficult for PepsiCo to shift to healthier options, but I think the shift in McDonald's product portfolio towards healthier options will be more difficult.
As for the economic headwinds, they are very similar. People have less money to spend, and eating out is usually more expensive than preparing it at home. Therefore, people ate out less often, resulting in a slowdown across the entire industry, of which McDonald's is of course a leading company.
It is gaining market share as consumers seek greater value for their money, and arguably offers the best value in the fast-food sector, but it remains vulnerable to being negatively affected by these challenges.
What this channel has said about $MCD
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has 2 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.