MELI is undervalued; strong market share gains in LatAm e-commerce and fintech support a thesis of ~20% annual fundamental growth over the next decade.
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All right, now let's move on and talk about the third stock that has had a lot of updates coming out and this one is Marcato Libre. Marcotta Libre stock recently peaked over $2,000 per share and it has been hovering around this range now which I think is great to see and more than overdue and I still believe that Marcato Libre is extremely undervalued in the market and as I have said previously I think that it is still one of the stocks offering the most value across the entire market right now as well.
And with Marcato Libre being the number one player in the e-commerce market across Latin America by far, this should benefit Marcato Libre significantly out to 2030 as well.
And here you can see that Marcado Libre has 53% market share in 2026 and has grown from 49.4% in 2021.
This means that Marcato Libre is gaining digital advertising spend market share across Latin America and now has more than half of the total digital advertising spend. That is ridiculous.
So as this market continues to grow, Marcato Libre should benefit tremendously.
And here we can see that Marcato Libre and Newbank are increasing their market shares significantly. In the past 3 years alone, Marcato Libre went from having 0% market share to about 30% of people saying they have a relationship with a company in some form in digital banking.
So both Marcato Libre and Newbank are literally eating up the market share for digital banking across Mexico. And I believe that this is a massively untapped market and opportunity for both companies.
This next screenshot shows us that Morgan Stanley Research found that Marcato Libre is accelerating its incremental market share capture in Mexico now gaining over 2/3 more market share compared to Amazon and Walmart in the country.
This gap also appears to be widening which makes sense since the fintech arm is growing rapidly and their crossber trade in Mexico is also very strong. So their e-commerce platform in Mexico is continuing to take massive market share too.
However, if we take a look at Marcato Libre's non-performing loans, you can see that they have been declining and are down from about 9.3% in 2024. So, while Brazil is seeing a 14-year high delinquency rate, Marcato Librey's non-performing loans aren't growing despite them also growing their credit book significantly.
This suggests that Marcato Libre has better underwriting models than the overall market and is being intelligent with their lending.
Marcato Libre's vast amount of data from the e-commerce and fintech platforms together give them so much more insights into the consumer than anyone else which is a competitive advantage that they are clearly using.
So, I continue to believe that Marcato Libre is cheap and undervalued with one of the clearest runways for growth in the market. And I believe that this business could realistically grow 20% annually over the next decade.
And I'm talking about its fundamentals, not necessarily its share price. It is just operating in so many untapped markets and it has so many avenues and optionality for future growth.
So, this is a business that I plan to be invested in for the next decade, if not longer, because I believe that they're going to continue disrupting Latin America and growing significantly.
Marcato Libre has also become a top position for me because I have been adding more and more shares over the past couple of years, the entire way down. And I am happy that I was able to build out my position while the stock got so freaking cheap.
And currently, Marcato Libre is the fourth largest position in my portfolio at about 8.7% waitings.
What this channel has said about $MELI
Daniel Pronk has 2 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.