Speaker avoids owning MU due to skepticism about long-term (decade) memory price robustness, despite short-term strength in AI demand.

What are the chances the AI buildout goes to 2K for Micron? feel the case is stronger than before, but it feels so um you know what really shot up the memory stocks was leverage in Korea.

I hate to say it, I don't love playing off of leverage, but I think what drives a lot of the memory cycle right now is I will show you hold on in our stock tab. I believe it is under the Nvidia tab when we were prepping for the Nvidia earnings.

I'm going to scroll down and find it really quick. This is the current research on forecast pricing for DRAM. And the issue is what you really have to expect is that memory prices are going to keep rocketing, not just staying high.

And we kind of hit this boom from the codeex and anthropic claude co-work crap. I mean it's not crap. It was pretty good. But we hit a boom in memory pricing because of that and the contextual requirements for not only frontier training but also for inference through those new models.

And now the projections on DRAM prices are that the second derivative is highly negative and that the first derivative is almost going negative. Right? So that is uh what if you are investing in memory stocks and you're like I need to make tendies on memory stocks.

The number one thing you should be paying attention to is not sold out supply. It's to okay what's happening with memory prices going forward?

How much how much longer can this you know shortage if these estimates are all wrong and memory prices like high bandwidth memory is probably going to double next year but this these are DRAM prices right here which is what goes into high bandwidth memory.

Okay. So, what happens if uh DRAM prices go up 20% next year? Well, then you're closer to being able to get onto an upside for stock like Micron again because now the estimates are going, you know, beating again on on price increases.

So, I think that's that's really how you got to play the market uh when it comes to Micron. Uh, one of the reasons I don't, and this isn't to be like, you know, I'm not trying to be negative on uh, memory, but one of the reasons I don't own memory is because I, you know, in our core portfolio, we look at our core portfolio as this hedge, this sort of long-term hedge over the next decade.

And where do we think things will stand in a decade? And I guess I'm less enthusiastic that that sort of pricing is going to be robust a decade out. So that time horizon doesn't really in my opinion align with oh yeah I'm going to go in on memory stocks.