尽管AI需求短期强劲，但因对长期（十年期）内存价格稳健性持怀疑态度，避免持有MU。
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AI 基础设施建设推动美光股价达到2000美元的可能性有多大？我觉得这个逻辑比以前更强了，但感觉……你知道，真正推高存储股的是韩国的杠杆效应。
What are the chances the AI buildout goes to 2K for Micron? feel the case is stronger than before, but it feels so um you know what really shot up the memory stocks was leverage in Korea.
我不想这么说，我不喜欢利用杠杆来交易，但我认为目前驱动存储周期的主要因素是……我给你们看一下，稍等，在我们的股票标签页里。我相信它应该在 Nvidia 标签页下，那是我们为 Nvidia 财报做准备时整理的。
I hate to say it, I don't love playing off of leverage, but I think what drives a lot of the memory cycle right now is I will show you hold on in our stock tab. I believe it is under the Nvidia tab when we were prepping for the Nvidia earnings.
我要快速滚动一下找到它。这是关于 DRAM 预测定价的最新研究。问题在于，你真正需要预期的是，内存价格将继续飙升，而不仅仅是保持高位。
I'm going to scroll down and find it really quick. This is the current research on forecast pricing for DRAM. And the issue is what you really have to expect is that memory prices are going to keep rocketing, not just staying high.
我们某种程度上因为 Codex、Anthropic 以及 Claude Co-work 这些东西迎来了这波繁荣。我是说，它们并不糟糕，其实相当不错。但我们因为那些东西以及不仅限于前沿训练、还包括通过新模型进行推理所需的上下文要求，迎来了内存价格的暴涨。
And we kind of hit this boom from the codeex and anthropic claude co-work crap. I mean it's not crap. It was pretty good. But we hit a boom in memory pricing because of that and the contextual requirements for not only frontier training but also for inference through those new models.
现在对 DRAM 价格的预测显示，二阶导数高度为负，一阶导数也几乎转为负值。对吧？所以，如果你正在投资存储股，并且你想在存储股上赚大钱，你最应该关注的不是供应售罄的情况，而是：未来内存价格会发生什么变化？
And now the projections on DRAM prices are that the second derivative is highly negative and that the first derivative is almost going negative. Right? So that is uh what if you are investing in memory stocks and you're like I need to make tendies on memory stocks. The number one thing you should be paying attention to is not sold out supply. It's to okay what's happening with memory prices going forward?
如果这些估计都是错的，这种短缺还能持续多久？比如高带宽内存明年可能会翻倍，但这些是这里的 DRAM 价格，也就是用于制造高带宽内存的材料。
How much how much longer can this you know shortage if these estimates are all wrong and memory prices like high bandwidth memory is probably going to double next year but this these are DRAM prices right here which is what goes into high bandwidth memory.
好的。那么，如果 DRAM 价格明年上涨20%会怎样？那样你就更接近于让像美光这样的股票再次获得上行空间，因为现在的预期又会因价格上涨而超出预期。
Okay. So, what happens if uh DRAM prices go up 20% next year? Well, then you're closer to being able to get onto an upside for stock like Micron again because now the estimates are going, you know, beating again on on price increases.
所以，我认为这就是你在交易美光时必须采用的市场策略。呃，我不持有存储股的原因之一——这并不是要对存储行业持消极态度——是因为在我们核心投资组合中，我们将核心组合视为未来十年的长期对冲工具。
So, I think that's that's really how you got to play the market uh when it comes to Micron. Uh, one of the reasons I don't, and this isn't to be like, you know, I'm not trying to be negative on uh, memory, but one of the reasons I don't own memory is because I, you know, in our core portfolio, we look at our core portfolio as this hedge, this sort of long-term hedge over the next decade.
我们认为十年后局势会如何？我想我对那种定价在十年后依然强劲不太乐观。所以在我看来，那个时间跨度并不支持“好吧，我要重仓存储股”这种想法。
And where do we think things will stand in a decade? And I guess I'm less enthusiastic that that sort of pricing is going to be robust a decade out. So that time horizon doesn't really in my opinion align with oh yeah I'm going to go in on memory stocks.
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。