Speaker holds NFLX despite being down 19% and stock falling 47% from highs; views current price slump as overdone given buybacks and expected earnings growth, though admits it was a bad decision.

To illustrate this figure, adding $450 billion is equivalent to adding Costco ( $430 billion), Procter & Gamble ($400 billion ), Johnson & Johnson ($400 billion ), Home Depot, and Netflix ($375, $380 billion ).

Okay, let's talk about the stock that you and I own, which seems to be experiencing a price slump. I'm going to tell you now that this is the worst decision I've made this year.

But I was completely wrong in this decision. I make a lot of mistakes, but I use stop-loss orders. I did the opposite here. I was lowering the average purchase price all the time.

She simply refused to see reality. We are talking about someone who has a Netflix account. So , I was wrong on every occasion I spoke about this stock. I was wrong in my writings about him, in my television appearances, and in this program as well.

This stock was at its peak; in 2024 it was extremely popular, and in the first half of 2025 it was a shining name. Then, I'm not entirely sure what caused its sudden collapse, except for the company's involvement in this ill-fated deal with Warner Bros. That's the only reason.

Look where the stock crashed! What a disastrous decision! I never liked that, and I never liked the idea. I didn't understand it at the time. But I was somewhat open to the idea that it's a $400 billion company, and they can do whatever they want now.

I was somewhat open to this idea. The pessimists were saying: If they thought they needed to absorb Warner Bros. and its labor problems and debts, then Netflix thought it needed to absorb $30 billion in debt.

Why? correct. This was the right opinion, and it was not mine, and I was wrong.

I want to show you, show me on this chart, I know where I should have sold. I had two opportunities. Not necessarily at the highest price. Tell me where you think I should have sold.

Before I do that, I'll just say that the credit goes to me, as I bought this stock after it crashed . Therefore, I bought near its lowest point in February, I think, and sold when it rose.

But then, foolishly, when it filled the gap sometime in May, I bought it again. Because I thought I would benefit from bridging the gap. I tried to be very smart. Therefore, I am now down 19% on the stock.

Okay, back to the graph. Where should I have sold? I bought it. My first purchase was at a price of 100, which is not shown in this chart. I bought it in the summer of 2025. I did n't pay the highest price.

I think the highest price was around 130. So, I paid around 100.

Well, I think that 's the correct answer. You can't see where the mouse cursor is, but I'm hovering over May 2026. When I bought it, when it filled the gap, right? Do you see May 26th?

Okay. It filled the gap, then moved sideways, then dropped. Perhaps this was the price I should have sold it for , and the price you should have sold it for as well. The price at that time seemed to be approximately $80.

So, I'm between May and July 2026. I'll tell you that this isn't the price I think I should have sold it for . Not because the price was higher, but it was clear that I had to sell shortly after the death crossover.

In the case of Netflix, there was no fundamental change at the time, but it was a sign that people were losing their enthusiasm for the stock. Where did that happen? It appears to be in the first week of December.

Oh, my God! Good . And you know what? In this particular case, he did nothing but decline. It seems to have decreased every day. I know he didn't . It appears to have decreased every day from December to March. Isn't that what it seems to you?

So I agree with you. When I was looking at the graph, I was looking at the right side. I was saying when I should have sold. I had no idea that you had it all that time. You should have sold. You idiot. I increased it.

Okay, but let's move on to today. I'm afraid to sell. I will not sell it. I feel like ...seriously, I think we've missed the opportunity. It is true that it is never too late to sell.

I generally believe that, Adam, but the bald old man knows when to break the rules . Good. I've already broken my own rule because I... but here's the good news. I increased it during the downward gap following the earnings announcement.

My average price is 81. It's a $73 stock. This is not bad. So, you are better than me. The stock price was 80 two days ago. The problem is that I am very stubborn, and I don't want to get out of this situation unscathed.

In fact, after all this time, you know, I feel the market owes me. I break all the rules of the stock market, both formal and informal. He insisted on making money here.

I believe I will succeed because of live events, the American football league, and its increasing prevalence in things that attract many new users who do not give up on the market.

There's someone at Wells Fargo who has the lowest price target in the market, which is 56. Okay, two people. One of them at HSBC lowered its target price to 76 today. This person at Wells Fargo lowered the target price for the stock on September 18 to $57.

Oh, my God! It's a very low price. This means a potential drop of more than 25% from the current price. Here's why: the low valuation multiple , which he reduced from 21 times to 15 times, the price at which he believes the stock should be trading.

It also lowered its profit forecast for 2028. It says average viewing was 1.6 hours per subscriber per day in the first half of the year. This represents an 8% decrease from 2023 levels after adjusting for password sharing and geographic distribution.

He says that the hours spent watching Netflix's Top 100 Original Shows, which are the foundation of its success, have decreased during this period. Their share of television viewing in the United States is now less than 8%.

His problem with this report is that Netflix lacks huge original series, and that's obvious. The trends in interaction seem worrying to us.

So, his point of view, which differs from that of the other pessimist I will talk about shortly, is that Netflix is spending $20 billion this year on content. We need a new show that rivals Stranger Things.

We need a new job that will get people talking about Netflix with their friends and subscribing to it. They need a show like Bridgerton or Ozark, something unique to Netflix that brings people back to the real world when they turn off the TV and talk about it.

What is the Netflix series that everyone is talking about? Honestly, is there another work like Narcos? Is there anything else? So, what is the pessimist's point of view ? Why do we own this company?

Finally, on the subject of pessimism, today HSBC are not interested in Netflix original programs. They believe the company's shares are at risk anyway. Because they believe that YouTube has just opened up a new level of threats for which there is no solution.

One person says, " YouTube's strategy is to expand its presence on TVs and living rooms, intensifying the competition for watch time. YouTube is a completely different kind of threat.

It's a massive, ad-funded video platform, and Netflix doesn't really have an answer to that. They don't expect any rebound in Netflix's user engagement metrics because of the pressure from YouTube.

It's basically a market share story , not an engagement story." Okay, they're both pessimistic, but for different reasons.

I want to ask you which one you agree with more. Is the problem a lack of creativity and successful programming, or is the problem that they're up against Darth Vader and the empire that is YouTube, and it doesn't even matter what they put on?

Obviously, it's both. But I feel that the market share story, which distracts YouTube, is, I think, priced in. I think that's all pretty clear . Do you? Yes, 100%. We've been talking about this for a long time. I think that part is pretty clear .

Is Netflix reacting to the situation by adding podcasts and pulling content from YouTube for money? Yes, yes, absolutely. And then going into vertical content to attract Eighteen-year-olds who obviously aren't going to watch anything horizontally.

But the bigger problem is the lack of hits. Okay, you think that's the real deal? Well, it seems like it's the one they can change. Right. Okay, they just signed Taylor Sheridan.

Okay, it's too late , but is it? Well, they signed Universal after Paramount. Oh, did that? Yeah, that's their next stop. Which is Universal? Peacock? NBC? Okay.

Here's the bright side. Evercore ISI has doubled its investment. They've raised their target from 100 to 110. I'll just give you the key points. Subscriber penetration in the US is at a multi-year high of 63%, according to their own survey.

Japanese penetration has climbed to a record high of 22%. Cancel intentions have improved —that is, when people are asked if they're going to cancel their subscriptions. In both markets, live event viewing has jumped to 60% of users in September is up from 42% in March.

This means they've expanded their live event offerings to the point where more than half of their users are interested in what they're offering. In Japan, 45% of new subscribers surveyed said they joined because of the World Series.

Netflix Clips, their short-form content, reached 46 % of Japanese users and 38% in the US. That's really big. There's a lot going on.

But let me say one last thing about Netflix. I can't imagine it reaching 110% without a radical change. It won't stay that way. So, as you said before , how many times are we going to learn not to bet against Mark Zuckerberg?

I feel Netflix has earned that same right, provided all the negative predictions are correct. I'm not saying the stock is experiencing a sharp decline for no reason. There's a good reason, but if you look at the stock chart and see all the drops, you'll find many 70% drops.

Personally, I wouldn't tolerate a 70% drop, and if things continue like this, So I'll withdraw. But right now, the stock is down 47% from its highs. People are bearish, and we know it.

They're buying back shares; they bought $4.7 billion worth in the second quarter , and they still have a $25 billion buyback mandate. Come on, let's be bold, that's cool! They should be able to deliver double-digit earnings growth for a long time, and they will.

Okay, the only difference between what you're saying about their earnings over this period, and you're right, quite often—like in 2022—the stock price has dropped by more than half, then they launch an ad-supported password repair service, and the stock has recovered.

It's a different person. Yes. The CEO is gone. Yes. So, since Read left, things haven't been going well . Yes. And I think that adds to the complexity. Yes. I do n't hear investors calling for anyone to be fired, but it's not being run by the same people who saved it 10 times.

But Sarandos and Peters have been around for decades. Content men. It's a business problem. They're not the new guys. Okay. These—I mean, these—Hollywood guys. They're not businessmen. They want to make a splash. Re-energize people.

No, Netflix hasn't been on that list, I think, since we started it.