尽管NFLX已下跌19%、股价较高点回落47%，仍继续持有，认为在回购和预期盈利增长支撑下当前跌势已过度，但也承认这是一个糟糕的决定。
逐段跳播
为了说明这个数字，增加4500亿美元相当于增加好市多（4300亿美元）、宝洁（4000亿美元）、强生（4000亿美元）、家得宝以及奈飞（3750亿、3800亿美元）。
To illustrate this figure, adding $450 billion is equivalent to adding Costco ( $430 billion), Procter & Gamble ($400 billion ), Johnson & Johnson ($400 billion ), Home Depot, and Netflix ($375, $380 billion ).
好，我们来谈谈你我都持有的这只股票，它似乎正在经历价格下跌。我现在就告诉你，这是我今年做出的最糟糕的决定。但我在这个决定上完全错了。我会犯很多错误，但我会使用止损单。这次我做的恰恰相反。
我一直在不断降低平均买入价。她干脆拒绝面对现实。我们说的可是一个有奈飞账户的人。所以，我每次谈到这只股票时都错了。我在关于他的文章中错了，在电视露面中错了，在这个节目里也错了。
Okay, let's talk about the stock that you and I own, which seems to be experiencing a price slump. I'm going to tell you now that this is the worst decision I've made this year.
But I was completely wrong in this decision. I make a lot of mistakes, but I use stop-loss orders. I did the opposite here. I was lowering the average purchase price all the time.
She simply refused to see reality. We are talking about someone who has a Netflix account. So , I was wrong on every occasion I spoke about this stock. I was wrong in my writings about him, in my television appearances, and in this program as well.
这只股票当时正处于顶峰；2024年它极其受欢迎，2025年上半年它还是一个耀眼的名字。然后，我不完全确定是什么导致了它的突然崩盘，除了公司与华纳兄弟这笔不幸的交易有关。这是唯一的原因。
This stock was at its peak; in 2024 it was extremely popular, and in the first half of 2025 it was a shining name. Then, I'm not entirely sure what caused its sudden collapse, except for the company's involvement in this ill-fated deal with Warner Bros. That's the only reason.
看看这只股票跌成什么样了！多么灾难性的决定！我从来都不喜欢那个，也从来都不喜欢这个想法。我当时不理解。但我多少还是对这个想法持开放态度，即它是一家4000亿美元的公司，现在他们可以为所欲为。
我多少还是对这个想法持开放态度。悲观者当时说：如果他们觉得自己需要吸收华纳兄弟及其劳工问题和债务，那么奈飞就认为自己需要吸收300亿美元的债务。为什么？正确。这是正确的观点，而这不是我的观点，我错了。
Look where the stock crashed! What a disastrous decision! I never liked that, and I never liked the idea. I didn't understand it at the time. But I was somewhat open to the idea that it's a $400 billion company, and they can do whatever they want now.
I was somewhat open to this idea. The pessimists were saying: If they thought they needed to absorb Warner Bros. and its labor problems and debts, then Netflix thought it needed to absorb $30 billion in debt.
Why? correct. This was the right opinion, and it was not mine, and I was wrong.
我想给你看，在这张图上指给我看，我知道我本该在哪里卖出。我有两次机会。不一定是最高价。告诉我你认为我本该在哪里卖出。
I want to show you, show me on this chart, I know where I should have sold. I had two opportunities. Not necessarily at the highest price. Tell me where you think I should have sold.
在我这么做之前，我只想说，功劳归我，因为我是在这只股票崩盘之后买入的。因此，我大概是在2月接近最低点买入的，然后在它上涨时卖出。但后来，我愚蠢地在5月某个时候它回补缺口时又买入了。
因为我以为我会从回补缺口中获益。我试图耍小聪明。因此，我现在在这只股票上亏损了19%。
Before I do that, I'll just say that the credit goes to me, as I bought this stock after it crashed . Therefore, I bought near its lowest point in February, I think, and sold when it rose.
But then, foolishly, when it filled the gap sometime in May, I bought it again. Because I thought I would benefit from bridging the gap. I tried to be very smart. Therefore, I am now down 19% on the stock.
好，回到图表。我本该在哪里卖出？我买入了它。我的第一笔买入价格是100，这张图上没有显示。我是在2025年夏天买入的。我没有付最高价。我想最高价大约在130左右。所以，我付了大约100。
Okay, back to the graph. Where should I have sold? I bought it. My first purchase was at a price of 100, which is not shown in this chart. I bought it in the summer of 2025. I did n't pay the highest price.
I think the highest price was around 130. So, I paid around 100.
嗯，我认为这就是正确答案。你看不到鼠标光标在哪里，但我正悬停在2026年5月。当我买入时，当它回补缺口时，对吧？你看到5月26日了吗？好。它回补了缺口，然后横盘，然后下跌。也许这就是我本该卖出的价格，也是你本该卖出的价格。
当时的价格似乎大约是80美元。所以，我是在2026年5月到7月之间。我要告诉你，这不是我认为我本该卖出的价格。不是因为价格更高，而是很明显我必须在死亡交叉之后不久就卖出。
Well, I think that 's the correct answer. You can't see where the mouse cursor is, but I'm hovering over May 2026. When I bought it, when it filled the gap, right? Do you see May 26th?
Okay. It filled the gap, then moved sideways, then dropped. Perhaps this was the price I should have sold it for , and the price you should have sold it for as well. The price at that time seemed to be approximately $80.
So, I'm between May and July 2026. I'll tell you that this isn't the price I think I should have sold it for . Not because the price was higher, but it was clear that I had to sell shortly after the death crossover.
就奈飞而言，当时并没有基本面变化，但这是一个信号，表明人们对这只股票正在失去热情。那是在哪里发生的？似乎是在12月的第一周。哦，我的天！好。你知道吗？在这个特定情况下，它除了下跌什么都没做。
它似乎每天都在下跌。我知道它没有。从12月到3月，它似乎每天都在下跌。你不也是这么觉得吗？
In the case of Netflix, there was no fundamental change at the time, but it was a sign that people were losing their enthusiasm for the stock. Where did that happen? It appears to be in the first week of December.
Oh, my God! Good . And you know what? In this particular case, he did nothing but decline. It seems to have decreased every day. I know he didn't . It appears to have decreased every day from December to March. Isn't that what it seems to you?
所以我同意你的看法。当我看图表时，我看的是右侧。我在说我本该在什么时候卖出。我完全不知道你一直持有它。你本该卖出的。你这个白痴。我加仓了。
So I agree with you. When I was looking at the graph, I was looking at the right side. I was saying when I should have sold. I had no idea that you had it all that time. You should have sold. You idiot. I increased it.
好，但我们来说说今天。我害怕卖出。我不会卖出它。我感觉……说真的，我觉得我们已经错过了机会。确实，卖出永远不嫌晚。我总体上相信这一点，Adam，但那个秃头老头知道什么时候该打破规则。
好。我已经打破了自己的规则，因为我……但这里有个好消息。我在财报公布后的向下跳空缺口期间加仓了。我的平均价格是81。这是一只73美元的股票。这还不错。所以，你比我强。两天前股价是80。
问题是我非常固执，我不想毫发无损地脱离这个局面。事实上，过了这么久，你知道，我觉得市场欠我的。我打破了股市的所有规则，正式的和非正式的。他坚持要在这里赚钱。
Okay, but let's move on to today. I'm afraid to sell. I will not sell it. I feel like ...seriously, I think we've missed the opportunity. It is true that it is never too late to sell.
I generally believe that, Adam, but the bald old man knows when to break the rules . Good. I've already broken my own rule because I... but here's the good news. I increased it during the downward gap following the earnings announcement.
My average price is 81. It's a $73 stock. This is not bad. So, you are better than me. The stock price was 80 two days ago. The problem is that I am very stubborn, and I don't want to get out of this situation unscathed.
In fact, after all this time, you know, I feel the market owes me. I break all the rules of the stock market, both formal and informal. He insisted on making money here.
我相信我会成功，因为直播赛事、美国橄榄球联盟，以及它在那些吸引许多不会放弃市场的新用户的事物中日益普及。
I believe I will succeed because of live events, the American football league, and its increasing prevalence in things that attract many new users who do not give up on the market.
富国银行有个人给出了市场上最低的目标价，即56。好，两个人。其中一人在汇丰今天将其目标价下调至76。富国银行的这个人在9月18日将该股目标价下调至57美元。哦，我的天！这是一个非常低的价格。
这意味着较当前价格有超过25%的潜在下跌空间。原因如下：低估值倍数，他从21倍下调至15倍，即他认为该股应该交易的价位。他还下调了2028年的利润预测。报告称，上半年每位订阅者平均每天观看1.6小时。
在调整密码共享和地域分布后，这较2023年的水平下降了8%。他说，在此期间，观看奈飞前100部原创剧集（这是其成功的基础）的时长有所下降。它们在美国电视观看中的份额现在不到8%。
他对这份报告的不满在于，奈飞缺乏大型原创剧集，这一点很明显。互动趋势在我们看来似乎令人担忧。
There's someone at Wells Fargo who has the lowest price target in the market, which is 56. Okay, two people. One of them at HSBC lowered its target price to 76 today. This person at Wells Fargo lowered the target price for the stock on September 18 to $57.
Oh, my God! It's a very low price. This means a potential drop of more than 25% from the current price. Here's why: the low valuation multiple , which he reduced from 21 times to 15 times, the price at which he believes the stock should be trading.
It also lowered its profit forecast for 2028. It says average viewing was 1.6 hours per subscriber per day in the first half of the year. This represents an 8% decrease from 2023 levels after adjusting for password sharing and geographic distribution.
He says that the hours spent watching Netflix's Top 100 Original Shows, which are the foundation of its success, have decreased during this period. Their share of television viewing in the United States is now less than 8%.
His problem with this report is that Netflix lacks huge original series, and that's obvious. The trends in interaction seem worrying to us.
所以，他的观点——与我稍后将谈到的另一位悲观者的观点不同——是奈飞今年在内容上花费200亿美元。我们需要一部能与《怪奇物语》匹敌的新剧。我们需要一部能让人们与朋友谈论奈飞并订阅它的新作品。
他们需要一部像《布里奇顿》或《黑钱胜地》那样的剧，某种奈飞独有的东西，能在人们关掉电视后把他们拉回现实世界并谈论它。
So, his point of view, which differs from that of the other pessimist I will talk about shortly, is that Netflix is spending $20 billion this year on content. We need a new show that rivals Stranger Things.
We need a new job that will get people talking about Netflix with their friends and subscribing to it. They need a show like Bridgerton or Ozark, something unique to Netflix that brings people back to the real world when they turn off the TV and talk about it.
大家都在谈论的奈飞剧集是什么？说实话，还有另一部像《毒枭》那样的作品吗？还有别的吗？那么，悲观者的观点是什么？我们为什么要持有这家公司？
What is the Netflix series that everyone is talking about? Honestly, is there another work like Narcos? Is there anything else? So, what is the pessimist's point of view ? Why do we own this company?
最后，关于悲观情绪这个话题，今天汇丰对奈飞原创节目不感兴趣。他们认为无论如何该公司的股票都面临风险。因为他们认为YouTube刚刚开启了一个无解的新威胁层级。有个人说：“YouTube的策略是扩大其在电视和客厅中的存在，加剧对观看时长的竞争。
YouTube是一种完全不同类型的威胁。它是一个庞大的、靠广告资助的视频平台，而奈飞对此其实没有答案。”由于来自YouTube的压力，他们不预期奈飞的用户参与度指标会有任何反弹。
“这基本上是一个市场份额的故事，而不是一个参与度的故事。”好，他们两人都悲观，但原因不同。
Finally, on the subject of pessimism, today HSBC are not interested in Netflix original programs. They believe the company's shares are at risk anyway. Because they believe that YouTube has just opened up a new level of threats for which there is no solution.
One person says, " YouTube's strategy is to expand its presence on TVs and living rooms, intensifying the competition for watch time. YouTube is a completely different kind of threat.
It's a massive, ad-funded video platform, and Netflix doesn't really have an answer to that. They don't expect any rebound in Netflix's user engagement metrics because of the pressure from YouTube.
It's basically a market share story , not an engagement story." Okay, they're both pessimistic, but for different reasons.
我想问你我更同意哪一个。问题是缺乏创造力和成功的节目，还是问题在于他们面对的是达斯·维达和YouTube这个帝国，他们播什么都无关紧要？显然，两者都是。但我觉得，分散YouTube注意力的那个市场份额故事，我认为已经被定价了。
我觉得这一切都相当清楚。你呢？是的，100%。我们已经谈论这个很久了。我觉得那部分相当清楚。
I want to ask you which one you agree with more. Is the problem a lack of creativity and successful programming, or is the problem that they're up against Darth Vader and the empire that is YouTube, and it doesn't even matter what they put on?
Obviously, it's both. But I feel that the market share story, which distracts YouTube, is, I think, priced in. I think that's all pretty clear . Do you? Yes, 100%. We've been talking about this for a long time. I think that part is pretty clear .
Netflix 是不是在通过增加播客、并从 YouTube 上花钱拉内容来应对这一局面？是的，是的，绝对是。然后进军竖屏内容，去吸引那些十八岁的年轻人，而这些人显然不会去看任何横屏的东西。
但更大的问题是缺乏爆款。好，你觉得这才是真正的问题所在？嗯，看起来这是他们能改变的一点。对。好，他们刚签下了 Taylor Sheridan。好，这已经太晚了，但真的晚了吗？嗯，他们在 Paramount 之后签下了 Universal。
哦，是吗？是的，那是他们的下一站。是哪家，Universal？Peacock？NBC？好。
Is Netflix reacting to the situation by adding podcasts and pulling content from YouTube for money? Yes, yes, absolutely. And then going into vertical content to attract Eighteen-year-olds who obviously aren't going to watch anything horizontally.
But the bigger problem is the lack of hits. Okay, you think that's the real deal? Well, it seems like it's the one they can change. Right. Okay, they just signed Taylor Sheridan.
Okay, it's too late , but is it? Well, they signed Universal after Paramount. Oh, did that? Yeah, that's their next stop. Which is Universal? Peacock? NBC? Okay.
好的一面在这里。Evercore ISI 已经将其投资翻倍。他们把目标价从 100 上调到 110。我只给你讲要点。根据他们自己的调查，美国的订阅用户渗透率处于 63% 的多年高位。
日本的渗透率已攀升至 22% 的创纪录高位。取消订阅的意向有所改善——也就是说，当人们被问及是否会取消订阅时。在两个市场，直播活动的观看率都跃升至 9 月份用户的 60%，高于 3 月份的 42%。
这意味着他们已经把直播活动的供给扩展到超过一半的用户对他们提供的内容感兴趣的程度。在日本，受访的新订阅用户中有 45% 表示他们是因为世界大赛而加入的。Netflix Clips，他们的短视频内容，触达了 46% 的日本用户和 38% 的美国用户。这真的很大。有很多事情在发生。
Here's the bright side. Evercore ISI has doubled its investment. They've raised their target from 100 to 110. I'll just give you the key points. Subscriber penetration in the US is at a multi-year high of 63%, according to their own survey.
Japanese penetration has climbed to a record high of 22%. Cancel intentions have improved —that is, when people are asked if they're going to cancel their subscriptions. In both markets, live event viewing has jumped to 60% of users in September is up from 42% in March.
This means they've expanded their live event offerings to the point where more than half of their users are interested in what they're offering. In Japan, 45% of new subscribers surveyed said they joined because of the World Series.
Netflix Clips, their short-form content, reached 46 % of Japanese users and 38% in the US. That's really big. There's a lot going on.
但让我就 Netflix 说最后一点。我无法想象它在没有根本性改变的情况下达到 110%。它不会一直这样下去。所以，正如你之前说的，我们还要多少次才学会不要做空 Mark Zuckerberg？
我觉得 Netflix 已经赢得了同样的权利，前提是所有负面预测都是对的。我不是说这只股票正在毫无理由地大幅下跌。是有充分理由的，但如果你看股价走势图，看到所有的下跌，你会发现很多次 70% 的跌幅。
就我个人而言，我不会容忍 70% 的跌幅，如果事情继续这样下去，那我就退出。但现在，这只股票已较其高点下跌 47%。人们看空，这我们知道。他们在回购股票；他们在第二季度买入了价值 47 亿美元的股票，而且他们仍有 250 亿美元的回购授权。
来吧，大胆一点，这很酷！他们应该能够在很长一段时间内实现两位数的盈利增长，而且他们会做到的。
But let me say one last thing about Netflix. I can't imagine it reaching 110% without a radical change. It won't stay that way. So, as you said before , how many times are we going to learn not to bet against Mark Zuckerberg?
I feel Netflix has earned that same right, provided all the negative predictions are correct. I'm not saying the stock is experiencing a sharp decline for no reason. There's a good reason, but if you look at the stock chart and see all the drops, you'll find many 70% drops.
Personally, I wouldn't tolerate a 70% drop, and if things continue like this, So I'll withdraw. But right now, the stock is down 47% from its highs. People are bearish, and we know it.
They're buying back shares; they bought $4.7 billion worth in the second quarter , and they still have a $25 billion buyback mandate. Come on, let's be bold, that's cool! They should be able to deliver double-digit earnings growth for a long time, and they will.
好，你所说的他们这段时期的盈利情况，唯一的区别是，你说得对，相当频繁——比如 2022 年——股价跌了一半以上，然后他们推出了广告支持的密码修复服务，股价就回升了。这是另一个人了。
是的。CEO 走了。是的。所以，自从 Read 离开后，事情就一直不太顺利。是的。而且我觉得这增加了复杂性。是的。我没有听到投资者呼吁解雇任何人，但这家公司已经不是由那些曾 10 次拯救它的人来经营了。
但 Sarandos 和 Peters 已经在这里几十年了。内容人。这是个商业问题。他们不是新人。好。这些——我是说，这些——好莱坞人。他们不是商人。他们想搞出大动静。重新点燃人们的热情。
Okay, the only difference between what you're saying about their earnings over this period, and you're right, quite often—like in 2022—the stock price has dropped by more than half, then they launch an ad-supported password repair service, and the stock has recovered.
It's a different person. Yes. The CEO is gone. Yes. So, since Read left, things haven't been going well . Yes. And I think that adds to the complexity. Yes. I do n't hear investors calling for anyone to be fired, but it's not being run by the same people who saved it 10 times.
But Sarandos and Peters have been around for decades. Content men. It's a business problem. They're not the new guys. Okay. These—I mean, these—Hollywood guys. They're not businessmen. They want to make a splash. Re-energize people.
不，我想自从我们开始做这份名单以来，Netflix 就没上过那个名单。
No, Netflix hasn't been on that list, I think, since we started it.
这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。