Nike's sales momentum is deteriorating and macro headwinds will cause 3-6 months of tough times, though management is adapting wisely.

In the most recent quarter , Nike announced a decline in sales compared to the same quarter last year. But if you look beneath the surface, the situation was actually much worse than it appeared .

This is because Nike stated that sales started strongly at the beginning of the quarter and then deteriorated later.

This is not the situation you would like to see as an investor. If you must have a quarter of declining performance, you would at least want the quarter to start off poorly and then gradually improve, because that means the next quarter is likely to be better than the same period last year.

But as things deteriorate, investors fear that this diminishing momentum will continue into the next quarter, with question marks over when conditions will improve.

So I wanted to share more about what this means for Nike stock investors. After a strong start in May, particularly in North America, we began to see a slowdown in retail sales trends by mid-April. This means things are starting to get worse.

Nike is at the heart of this event, and is on the front lines of this slowdown in discretionary spending. Therefore, the management team closely monitors market inventory and promotional offers , and adjusts purchases to manage supply and future sales in line with demand and optimize sales at full prices.

So , I must say that I agree with what the administration is doing, don't I? They have faced difficult circumstances, but they are dealing with the situation before them. These are things beyond Nike's control, but what it can control is how it adapts to the overall economic landscape.

They can reduce inventory because customers are n't ordering much, so there's no need to have a lot in your inventory channels . You can focus your products on items that are sold at full price.

So, you're not looking at the margins of what customers are thinking of buying. You focus on the things customers are likely to buy, and direct your inventory towards those categories .

Thus, with less inventory and more demand, you won't have to offer discounts as frequently. This allows you to achieve higher average selling prices for your products.

So, I think this is a wise move by the management team, but it doesn't negate the fact that the overall economic outlook is getting worse for Nike.

I got a little relief when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that some of the tariffs imposed on categories that Nike had to pay were illegal. So, Nike will get a huge refund. Did you think your tax refund was large?

Nike will receive a tax refund of $1 billion, or nearly $1 billion, specifically $986 million. This is a result of the tariffs they paid, which the Supreme Court ruled to be illegal.

Therefore , the United States government must return these funds to Nike.

But it's just temporary relief. It is not a complete elimination of tariffs. Tariffs remain a variable cost obstacle that they expect to continue to pose in the future. Therefore, Nike does not expect tariffs to be completely eliminated.

Nike does not expect this policy to change. They are planning based on the existence of higher trade barriers with a state of uncertainty surrounding them. They are making certain adjustments .

I don't know how much freedom Nike has in this regard. I don't know what Nike can do about it.

Almost all of their manufacturing takes place outside the United States, so they can take some incremental steps to increase manufacturing facilities outside of China, but they still manufacture outside of America, as every country outside of it faces tariffs for bringing the products into it.

Nike has not told investors about any plans to bring manufacturing back to the United States . The cost is so exorbitant that even thinking about it is impossible. When you add to that the volatility of tariff policy , the decision becomes beyond any consideration for a company like Nike.

Therefore, the situation, the macroeconomic headwinds, and the short-term pressures on Nike are unlikely to end anytime soon. Nike is likely to face another 3 or 6 months of tough times.

But, from what I see from the management, they are adapting to the situation wisely. They are dealing with the circumstances available to them , and doing their best under the current situation.