ServiceNow remains a buy with ~14% upside over 12-18 months; conviction lower at current price vs earlier lows.

ServiceNow expects its total revenue to double by 2030, exceeding $30 billion . Do these optimistic forecasts make the company's stock a buying opportunity right now? Let's answer this question together by evaluating the company's current and past performance, and comparing it to its valuation to determine whether it represents an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Management presented those projections of revenues ranging between $30 and $32 billion by 2030. This would mean more than double the company's revenues over the past twelve months , which amounted to $14.7 billion.

The management team also revised its forecast for AI revenue in 2026, increasing it from $1 billion to $1.5 billion. They are integrating artificial intelligence into their services , emphasizing that organizations using their first-level IT agent have reduced operating costs, and implementations are likely to expand in the second half of the year as ServiceNow provides more services to small businesses.

I believe this is an opportunity for companies to increase their adoption of artificial intelligence to target smaller companies that do not have huge budgets to hire companies like Palantir.

ServiceNow has done an excellent job of improving its profit margins in conjunction with its revenue growth. It is reasonable to assume that if its revenues do indeed grow to exceed $30 billion by 2030, its operating profit margin will expand in parallel.

Over the past ten years, its operating profit margin has improved from -15% to 13.6% over the past twelve months. ServiceNow also achieved an increased return on invested capital of 10.8% , up from -30% in 2017.

It is a software company, and most of its investments will be in research and development, and in personnel and talent to deliver products and services that integrate artificial intelligence, bridging the gap between the capabilities of large language models such as OpenAI, Anthropic, ChatGPT, and others, and making them accessible to small and medium-sized enterprises to integrate into their operations and deliver real value.

This is where companies like ServiceNow can fill this gap. They can provide implementation services for small businesses. This is just one area where ServiceNow could expand in the future.

Earlier this year, I felt that ServiceNow was trading at a ridiculously cheap valuation , and I was very optimistic about the company. I have reiterated my buy rating for ServiceNow stock several times, as you know, in April, May, June and July.

But you can see that since those low levels in April, May, June and July, when the stock price fell below $100 for several months and weeks, you could have bought ServiceNow stock for less than $100 a share; I had posted several videos on YouTube that I consider a great buying opportunity.

Therefore , looking at ServiceNow on a forward price-to-earnings basis, it appears to be slightly undervalued right now. It doesn't seem as undervalued as it did earlier in the year.

Similarly, I updated my assessment of ServiceNow's discounted cash flows . And again, I would say that it seems to be slightly undervalued . I calculated its fair value at $158.

The current market price is $138. Therefore, I'm calculating an increase of about 14% from here over the next twelve to eighteen months.

I usually like to have a safety margin of at least 10%. With " Surface Now", I would like to have a greater margin of safety given the rapidly evolving dynamics surrounding artificial intelligence.

So, to answer the question I posed in the title , yes, I still believe that ServiceNow represents a buying opportunity. I don't think it's too late .

However, my conviction and level of confidence in this rating are diminishing due to the improved market price. The market price is approaching 140. It is no longer below 100. That is why I was very optimistic about ServiceNow with high conviction and confidence.

Now at 140, I still think there is room for growth, but not as much upside and not as risk-taking as when it was trading at around 90 per share.