ServiceNow 仍属买入标的，预计未来 12-18 个月约有 14% 的上行空间；但相较此前的低位，当前价位下的信心有所减弱。
逐段跳播
ServiceNow 预计到 2030 年其总营收将翻倍，超过 300 亿美元。这些乐观的预测是否意味着该公司的股票现在是买入机会？让我们通过评估公司当前和过去的业绩，并将其与估值进行比较，来判断它对长期投资者而言是否是一个有吸引力的买入机会，从而一起回答这个问题。
ServiceNow expects its total revenue to double by 2030, exceeding $30 billion . Do these optimistic forecasts make the company's stock a buying opportunity right now? Let's answer this question together by evaluating the company's current and past performance, and comparing it to its valuation to determine whether it represents an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors.
管理层给出了这些预测，即到 2030 年营收将在 300 亿至 320 亿美元之间。这意味着公司过去十二个月的营收将增长一倍以上，而过去十二个月的营收为 147 亿美元。
Management presented those projections of revenues ranging between $30 and $32 billion by 2030. This would mean more than double the company's revenues over the past twelve months , which amounted to $14.7 billion.
管理团队还修订了 2026 年 AI 营收的预测，将其从 10 亿美元上调至 15 亿美元。他们正在将人工智能整合进其服务中，并强调使用其一级 IT 代理的组织已降低了运营成本，而且随着 ServiceNow 为小企业提供更多服务，相关部署很可能在下半年扩大。
The management team also revised its forecast for AI revenue in 2026, increasing it from $1 billion to $1.5 billion. They are integrating artificial intelligence into their services , emphasizing that organizations using their first-level IT agent have reduced operating costs, and implementations are likely to expand in the second half of the year as ServiceNow provides more services to small businesses.
我认为这对企业来说是一个机会，可以加大人工智能的采用力度，以瞄准那些没有巨额预算去聘请 Palantir 这类公司的小型企业。
I believe this is an opportunity for companies to increase their adoption of artificial intelligence to target smaller companies that do not have huge budgets to hire companies like Palantir.
ServiceNow 在伴随营收增长的同时提升利润率方面做得非常出色。可以合理地假设，如果其营收确实增长到 2030 年超过 300 亿美元，其营业利润率也将同步扩大。
ServiceNow has done an excellent job of improving its profit margins in conjunction with its revenue growth. It is reasonable to assume that if its revenues do indeed grow to exceed $30 billion by 2030, its operating profit margin will expand in parallel.
在过去十年里，其营业利润率已从 -15% 改善至过去十二个月的 13.6%。ServiceNow 还实现了投资资本回报率的提升，达到 10.8%，高于 2017 年的 -30%。
Over the past ten years, its operating profit margin has improved from -15% to 13.6% over the past twelve months. ServiceNow also achieved an increased return on invested capital of 10.8% , up from -30% in 2017.
它是一家软件公司，其大部分投资将用于研发，以及用于人员和人才，以交付整合人工智能的产品和服务，弥合 OpenAI、Anthropic、ChatGPT 等大型语言模型能力之间的差距，并使中小企业能够将其整合进自身运营并创造真正的价值。
It is a software company, and most of its investments will be in research and development, and in personnel and talent to deliver products and services that integrate artificial intelligence, bridging the gap between the capabilities of large language models such as OpenAI, Anthropic, ChatGPT, and others, and making them accessible to small and medium-sized enterprises to integrate into their operations and deliver real value.
这正是像 ServiceNow 这样的公司可以填补的空白。它们可以为小企业提供实施服务。这只是 ServiceNow 未来可能拓展的一个领域。
This is where companies like ServiceNow can fill this gap. They can provide implementation services for small businesses. This is just one area where ServiceNow could expand in the future.
今年早些时候，我觉得 ServiceNow 的估值低得离谱，我当时对这家公司非常乐观。如你所知，我在四月、五月、六月和七月已多次重申对 ServiceNow 股票的买入评级。
Earlier this year, I felt that ServiceNow was trading at a ridiculously cheap valuation , and I was very optimistic about the company. I have reiterated my buy rating for ServiceNow stock several times, as you know, in April, May, June and July.
但你可以看到，自四月、五月、六月和七月那些低位以来，当时股价在数个月和数周内跌破 100 美元，你本可以以每股不到 100 美元的价格买入 ServiceNow 股票；我当时在 YouTube 上发布了几个视频，认为那是一个绝佳的买入机会。
But you can see that since those low levels in April, May, June and July, when the stock price fell below $100 for several months and weeks, you could have bought ServiceNow stock for less than $100 a share; I had posted several videos on YouTube that I consider a great buying opportunity.
因此，从远期市盈率来看，ServiceNow 目前似乎略微被低估。它看起来不像今年早些时候那样被低估。
Therefore , looking at ServiceNow on a forward price-to-earnings basis, it appears to be slightly undervalued right now. It doesn't seem as undervalued as it did earlier in the year.
同样，我更新了对 ServiceNow 贴现现金流的评估。而且我还是要说，它似乎略微被低估。我计算出其公允价值为 158 美元。当前市场价格为 138 美元。因此，我计算出未来十二至十八个月较当前水平约有 14% 的上涨空间。
Similarly, I updated my assessment of ServiceNow's discounted cash flows . And again, I would say that it seems to be slightly undervalued . I calculated its fair value at $158.
The current market price is $138. Therefore, I'm calculating an increase of about 14% from here over the next twelve to eighteen months.
我通常希望至少有 10% 的安全边际。对于 ServiceNow，鉴于围绕人工智能快速演变的动态，我希望有更大的安全边际。
I usually like to have a safety margin of at least 10%. With " Surface Now", I would like to have a greater margin of safety given the rapidly evolving dynamics surrounding artificial intelligence.
所以，回答我在标题中提出的问题，是的，我仍然认为 ServiceNow 代表着一个买入机会。我不认为现在为时已晚。
So, to answer the question I posed in the title , yes, I still believe that ServiceNow represents a buying opportunity. I don't think it's too late .
然而，由于市场价格改善，我对这一评级的信念和信心水平正在减弱。市场价格正接近 140。它不再低于 100。这就是为什么我当时对 ServiceNow 非常乐观，抱有很高的信念和信心。
如今在 140，我仍然认为还有增长空间，但上涨空间没有那么大，也不像其股价在每股 90 美元左右交易时那样值得冒险。
However, my conviction and level of confidence in this rating are diminishing due to the improved market price. The market price is approaching 140. It is no longer below 100. That is why I was very optimistic about ServiceNow with high conviction and confidence.
Now at 140, I still think there is room for growth, but not as much upside and not as risk-taking as when it was trading at around 90 per share.
这个频道对 $NOW 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。