NVDA is fundamentally strong but overextended; the speaker suggests hedging or shorting due to valuation risks and signs of market desperation despite current growth.

Therefore, Nvidia expects 70% growth in the next fiscal year, and that is absolutely true. If these companies keep those promises, Nvidia will simply double in size.

Jensen Huang is raising his voice to tell the whole world how great his company will be in the next year and the year after, and I feel that marketing has turned a little into a state of desperation to keep the cycle going, because they all know that once the situation stops, and once the first giant company exposes Jensen Huang's hoax, if they say, "No thanks." Everything, all gains quickly turn into losses.

Similarly, now that Nvidia's stock has increased 20-fold, of course, everyone is classifying it as a "buy," two as a "hold," one as a "sell," and only one sees it as a "strong sell."

The only one who dares to do that. And you can see here that Nvidia's target price was 20 four years ago . As the stock continues to rise, they have raised the target price to now above 300 because they need the stock to rise further.

Even before Jensen Huang, demand for Nvidia would continue to grow. When the market senses that Nvidia is not going to grow any further, that the cycle is beginning to reverse, that there is an overabundance of data centers, or that chips are not worth their price, then everything starts to reverse.

If we look at Nvidia , it is still thriving, but the stock is trading at 20 times its value. And then we have to see, well, what is the price of short selling ? How much money can we make through short selling?

So, is it time now, perhaps before the cycle reaches its peak, to hedge our portfolios in some way, because any reversal in the AI situation could be catastrophic? There is a wide range in the stock price, 164 to 246. We are on the upper end of that range.

Then I looked at the options outside the price range (out of the money), and this might be interesting. If I could buy a $1 or so option to protect myself at 100, and if Nvidia stock reaches 50 within the next 12 months, I could multiply my money 40 times.

If you put in one dollar, you will get 40. That is equivalent to 40% of your wallet if you allocate 1% of it for this purpose. Can Nvidia's stock price return to 2023 levels in the next 12 months?

That seems highly unlikely, but that's why it costs about one dollar . But, if you want to hedge against crazy catastrophic situations , this is the outside- price hedge position.

You can invest 0.1% of your portfolio in 10 different sell options. It was decided to allocate 1% to 2% each year. If disaster strikes , you are protected in some way , and you can get big returns if you get it right in predicting the crisis.

However , it is very difficult for Nvidia to lose 80% of its market value. This is possible, but it is difficult because the net annual income is 120 billion. Will it trade at a price-to- earnings ratio of 10?

They are still on track to double next year, based on revenues that have already been committed to. Therefore, net income will be a quarter of a trillion. But if growth stops, if the cycle reverses, and if prices, revenues, income, demand, and everything else collapse, we may face this scenario.

I looked a little further away . This is, I think, 2028 or December 2028. I already have to pay $380 for this put option. So, if the price reaches 50 within the next two years, I will double my money 10 times.

It's good, but not great. However, in terms of options, we should remember that two years ago, Nvidia's option to drop below 100 was priced at 760. Now, it is priced at one dollar for the next 12 months .

So, you should keep in mind that if nothing happens, you could potentially lose 80% to 100% of your money.