NVDA基本面强劲但已过度延伸；尽管当前增长仍在，鉴于估值风险和市场出现绝望迹象，建议进行对冲或做空。
逐段跳播
因此，Nvidia 预计下一财年增长 70%，这完全属实。如果这些公司兑现这些承诺，Nvidia 的规模将直接翻倍。
Therefore, Nvidia expects 70% growth in the next fiscal year, and that is absolutely true. If these companies keep those promises, Nvidia will simply double in size.
Jensen Huang 正在提高嗓门，向全世界宣告他的公司明年和后年会有多出色，我觉得这种营销已经有点变成一种绝望的状态，只为让这个周期继续下去，因为他们都知道，一旦局面停下来，一旦第一家巨头公司揭穿 Jensen Huang 的骗局，如果他们说“不用了，谢谢”，那么一切都会迅速由盈利转为亏损。
Jensen Huang is raising his voice to tell the whole world how great his company will be in the next year and the year after, and I feel that marketing has turned a little into a state of desperation to keep the cycle going, because they all know that once the situation stops, and once the first giant company exposes Jensen Huang's hoax, if they say, "No thanks." Everything, all gains quickly turn into losses.
同样，如今 Nvidia 的股价已经上涨了 20 倍，当然，所有人都把它评为“买入”，两个评为“持有”，一个评为“卖出”，只有一个把它视为“强烈卖出”。只有这一个敢这么做。你可以看到，四年前 Nvidia 的目标价是 20。
随着股价持续上涨，他们把目标价上调到现在的 300 以上，因为他们需要股价进一步上涨。
Similarly, now that Nvidia's stock has increased 20-fold, of course, everyone is classifying it as a "buy," two as a "hold," one as a "sell," and only one sees it as a "strong sell."
The only one who dares to do that. And you can see here that Nvidia's target price was 20 four years ago . As the stock continues to rise, they have raised the target price to now above 300 because they need the stock to rise further.
即便没有 Jensen Huang，对 Nvidia 的需求也会继续增长。当市场察觉到 Nvidia 不会再增长、周期开始逆转、数据中心过剩，或者芯片不值这个价时，那么一切就开始逆转。
Even before Jensen Huang, demand for Nvidia would continue to grow. When the market senses that Nvidia is not going to grow any further, that the cycle is beginning to reverse, that there is an overabundance of data centers, or that chips are not worth their price, then everything starts to reverse.
如果我们看 Nvidia，它依然繁荣，但股价是其价值的 20 倍。然后我们必须看看，做空的代价是什么？通过做空能赚多少钱？那么，现在是不是时候，也许在周期见顶之前，以某种方式对冲我们的投资组合，因为 AI 局面的任何逆转都可能是灾难性的？
股价区间很宽，从 164 到 246。我们处在区间的上端。
If we look at Nvidia , it is still thriving, but the stock is trading at 20 times its value. And then we have to see, well, what is the price of short selling ? How much money can we make through short selling?
So, is it time now, perhaps before the cycle reaches its peak, to hedge our portfolios in some way, because any reversal in the AI situation could be catastrophic? There is a wide range in the stock price, 164 to 246. We are on the upper end of that range.
然后我看了价格区间之外的期权（价外期权），这可能很有意思。如果我能花大约 1 美元买一份期权，在 100 的位置保护自己，而如果 Nvidia 股价在未来 12 个月内跌到 50，我就能把资金翻 40 倍。
投入一美元，就能得到 40。如果你把钱包的 1% 分配于此，那就相当于钱包的 40%。Nvidia 的股价能在未来 12 个月内回到 2023 年的水平吗？这似乎极不可能，但正因如此它才只要大约一美元。
但是，如果你想对冲疯狂的灾难性局面，这就是价外对冲头寸。你可以把投资组合的 0.1% 投入 10 个不同的卖出期权。决定每年分配 1% 到 2%。如果灾难降临，你在某种程度上受到保护，而如果你正确预测了危机，你就能获得巨大回报。
然而，Nvidia 要损失 80% 的市值非常困难。这是可能的，但很困难，因为年净收入是 1200 亿。它会以 10 倍的市盈率交易吗？基于已经锁定的收入，他们明年仍有望翻倍。
因此，净收入将达到四分之一万亿。但如果增长停止，如果周期逆转，如果价格、收入、利润、需求和一切其他都崩溃，我们可能面临这种情景。
Then I looked at the options outside the price range (out of the money), and this might be interesting. If I could buy a $1 or so option to protect myself at 100, and if Nvidia stock reaches 50 within the next 12 months, I could multiply my money 40 times.
If you put in one dollar, you will get 40. That is equivalent to 40% of your wallet if you allocate 1% of it for this purpose. Can Nvidia's stock price return to 2023 levels in the next 12 months?
That seems highly unlikely, but that's why it costs about one dollar . But, if you want to hedge against crazy catastrophic situations , this is the outside- price hedge position.
You can invest 0.1% of your portfolio in 10 different sell options. It was decided to allocate 1% to 2% each year. If disaster strikes , you are protected in some way , and you can get big returns if you get it right in predicting the crisis.
However , it is very difficult for Nvidia to lose 80% of its market value. This is possible, but it is difficult because the net annual income is 120 billion. Will it trade at a price-to- earnings ratio of 10?
They are still on track to double next year, based on revenues that have already been committed to. Therefore, net income will be a quarter of a trillion. But if growth stops, if the cycle reverses, and if prices, revenues, income, demand, and everything else collapse, we may face this scenario.
我又看远了一点。这是，我想，2028 年或 2028 年 12 月。这份看跌期权我已经要付 380 美元。所以，如果价格在未来两年内跌到 50，我就能把资金翻 10 倍。不错，但不算很好。
不过，就期权而言，我们应该记住，两年前，Nvidia 跌破 100 的期权定价是 760。现在，未来 12 个月的定价是一美元。所以，你应该记住，如果什么都没发生，你可能损失 80% 到 100% 的资金。
I looked a little further away . This is, I think, 2028 or December 2028. I already have to pay $380 for this put option. So, if the price reaches 50 within the next two years, I will double my money 10 times.
It's good, but not great. However, in terms of options, we should remember that two years ago, Nvidia's option to drop below 100 was priced at 760. Now, it is priced at one dollar for the next 12 months .
So, you should keep in mind that if nothing happens, you could potentially lose 80% to 100% of your money.
观察点
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。