Oracle's financial foundation is weak, indicated by the force majeure clause on Project Jupiter and reliance on off-balance-sheet funding.
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Oracle is being forced to move forward in the field of artificial intelligence. Today we will begin with the news that Oracle has declared force majeure on a new data center project in New Mexico.
In short, Oracle claims that it is not responsible for costs or expenses in the event of delays to this project, I believe it is called Project Jupiter. It is supposed to start operating in 2028.
It makes perfect sense to me that Oracle would take this step. Here's why. No one denies that Oracle is doing its best to fund the construction of the data center infrastructure.
It is undoubtedly expanding the scope of its resources. It is true that success is possible even with expansion, but you must make sure that the revenues cover the expenses, right?
With regard to this particular data center, there are reasons to believe that the funding may not be delivered when Oracle wants it, when it expects it, or when it needs it. Public opinion has turned strongly against data centers, and I think the situation is worse in left-leaning states like New Mexico, where this project is located.
Therefore, there is good reason to say that delays from regulatory bodies and other factors could prevent Oracle from profiting from this data center.
Therefore, it makes sense for Oracle to include this clause, so that you don't have to pay before generating revenue. This does not necessarily mean that the project is doomed to failure.
This does not necessarily mean that Oracle is facing a major problem now, but it does indicate that Oracle has expanded its scope of work, and it cannot start making those payments before the work on the project is completed.
If Oracle succeeds in this, it will relieve the pressure on it, and perhaps on some other companies that make commitments. This might mean more proactive commitments. This could mean that companies will be bolder, because they can take more risks while maintaining security.
I have some questions, and one of them might make me think about the matter very carefully. You may need to calm me down a bit, but here are some of the reactions that immediately came to mind when I saw that Oracle was invoking the force majeure clause two years before any payment was due. This was somewhat worrying to me.
The fact that they are announcing this is somewhat suspicious, because I think that when we were talking about this development, Oracle, as we mentioned, was among the most vulnerable companies.
It was using off-balance-sheet deals to get the job done, and it didn't take on much more debt than companies like Alphabet and Amazon.
Therefore, their rapid declaration of force majeure is interesting, and it also affects their competitive position. Here's my point, which may raise some doubts, but Oracle makes many of these deals with OpenAI, where Oracle invests in OpenAI, and as you know, we've talked about these round-the-clock funding deals.
So, part of me is saying: Oracle might be doing this because it knows it will have difficulty collecting payments from the people it claims to have obtained commitments from.
I think the question "Why them? And why now?" That's a really interesting question. I think the reason Oracle was chosen specifically, rather than other companies like Alphabet or others, is that Oracle, as we know, starts from a weaker foundation.
Their current situation is like fragile ice. It's not that they are about to collapse, but their supporting resources are less. The question "Why now?" It intrigues me because you're right: this could be the reason, or it could be that Oracle is answering questions on this subject based on what it has already borrowed, and some of its creditors are asking questions, or it could mean that they want to make more deals, and this threat, or liability, is what's holding things back.
In conclusion, we don't know. Much of this is mere speculation, but the bottom line, as we all know, is that Oracle is not operating from a position of strength, quite simply.
OpenAI specifically states: "We need to reconsider some aspects of our relationship with Oracle." I mean, it's a valid question, and we wonder if this discussion is taking place elsewhere.
We had intended to start today's episode with this news, but with the Oracle news , we thought it more appropriate to stop here.
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